WARMING UP FOR BIG POLITICS

Türkiye is gearing up for its twentieth municipal elections, which are of great significance for the country. They are scheduled to take place on 31 March 2024, as mandated by law.

Most of the political parties in Türkiye have already chosen their candidates in the preparatory stage, but some are still finalising their decisions. Municipal elections in Türkiye may not be the main factor that determines the status and future of the political power in the country, but they are still a crucial milestone, as they enable the political forces to secure public support, gain experience in local governance in close collaboration with the people, and use economic tools of administration. Therefore, municipal elections in Türkiye attract as much public interest and party activity as parliamentary and presidential elections.

The electoral process for the March elections kicked off on January 1. So far, 36 parties have applied to participate. The final list of contesting parties and candidates will be announced by the CEC on March 3. The election campaign will run from March 21 to March 30.

Lessons from the past

It is well-known that the political career of the sole leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has ruled Türkiye for the past twenty-two years, and the current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, began with municipal elections. In 1994, he was elected as the mayor of Istanbul, where he earned strong popular support for the tremendous amount of work he did in the "true capital" of Türkiye. Later, when he entered national politics, his municipal experience helped him form a government on his own, which enjoyed strong popular support for many years.

During its tenure, the AKP has managed to keep the majority of the municipalities in the country, especially in major cities like Istanbul and Ankara, by getting its candidates elected as mayors. The situation changed for the first time in the 2019 municipal elections. Then, the candidates of the Republican People's Party (CHP) won the mayoral posts in cities such as Istanbul and Ankara, as a result of a successful campaign (the CHP usually won in Izmir). This event was seen as a serious blow for the AKP, leading to speculation in political circles about the party's weakening position and expected electoral loss.

However, Erdogan's victory in the subsequent parliamentary and presidential elections showed that he has no intention of leaving the political scene. In this sense, the upcoming municipal elections are important for both the AKP and the CHP. The former wants to regain the lost ground and the latter wants to show that it is still strong and retains the mandate it received from the people five years ago. After all, in general, the municipal elections are regarded as a kind of "barometer of the electorate's trust" in the country's political forces.

Competition for the positions of municipal heads will unfold in 81 provinces and 30 major cities in Türkiye. Despite their importance to MPs and political forces - especially in large urban municipalities - the main target of the contenders is the position of mayor. It is in this role that they will have the power to act and maintain the reputation of the political organisation they represent, its political ranking and assist in subsequent elections.

AKP's municipal showcase

The ruling AKP has already announced its candidates for mayoral posts in major cities. For example, former minister Murat Kurum is running for mayor of Istanbul, Turgut Altinok for Ankara and Hamza Dag for Izmir.

The AKP will go to the polls together with its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP). The AKP is known to have decided on its candidates in 74 out of 81 provinces. In the remaining seven provinces, including two major cities, the AKP will support the NMP candidates. Interestingly, 31 of the 74 candidates are incumbent mayors. Four of the ruling party's nominees are women: Fatma Sahin, Julide Iskenderoglu, Belgin Iba and Ulku Ocal.

Ocal, by the way, represents Igdir, which is currently led by a member of the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP).

Another electoral "surprise" for the AKP was the situation in the provinces affected by the earthquake of February 6, 2023. None of the incumbent mayors in these provinces are nominated by the AKP.

Maintaining the status quo

For the CHP, whose candidates won the mayoral elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019, which was a shock, the current vote will also be a test of popular confidence. The main goal of the CHP, which decided to change the party's leadership last autumn, is to keep the 2019 results.

However, this will not be easy. Even with significant support from the incumbent mayors of Istanbul (Ekrem Imamoglu) and Ankara (Mansur Yavas), competing with the winner of Türkiye's last presidential and parliamentary elections will be challenging. Moreover, unlike the AKP, the People's Republicans are going to the elections not as part of an alliance, as they did five years ago. The Good Party (İYİ) will participate in the elections with its own candidates, which may result in a significant loss of votes for Imamoglu and Yavas.

In addition to them, the incumbent municipal heads of Adana (Zeydan Karalar), Mersin (Vahap Secer), Aydın (Ozlem Cercioglu) and Hatay (Lutfu Savas) have been re-nominated.

Together is good, but we can go apart

In the March 31 elections, the NMP, part of the ruling Republican Alliance coalition, will nominate independent candidates as well as joint candidates. The party has named 55 candidates for mayoral positions in 12 provinces, including two major cities in Türkiye.

From the NMP, the current mayor of Manisa, Cengiz Ergun, and Sardar Soydan, a member of the Central Board and chairman of the party's regional committee in Mersin, will compete for the posts of municipal heads.

Obviously, the NMP has no ambitious goals for the upcoming municipal elections. Despite nominating their representatives in some provinces, in most of them the "nationalists" decided to give the AKP candidates a chance.

Good but alone

After last May's elections, in which the Good Party ran jointly with the CHP, the İYİ leadership announced its withdrawal from the alliance and its intention to run independently in the upcoming municipal elections. In mid-January, the party named its mayoral candidates in the provinces of Izmir, Manisa, Samsun, Kayseri, Antalya, Bursa and Ordu.

It was also reported that the party led by Meral Aksener will nominate its current speaker, MP Kursat Zorlu, as a candidate for the Ankara mayor's post. The party's candidate from Istanbul will be businessman Ali Fatinoglu.

DEM primaries

The Peoples' Democratic Party (or DEM), which enjoys strong public support especially in Türkiye's southeastern provinces, has also decided to participate in municipal elections. For the first time in Türkiye's history, DEM identifies its candidates for the position of municipality head (co-chair in the party) through primaries.

Conclusion

Municipalities, being the main public institutions in constant contact with the people, are also seen by the parties as a means of economic freedom and trust. In this sense, municipal elections are no less interesting than parliamentary elections.

The 2024 elections are an opportunity for the AKP to regain the ground it lost five years ago and further consolidate the trust it gained from the people in 2023. For the CHP, they will be the first test for the party's new chairman, Ozgur Ozel. At the same time, the CHP will try to hold on to power in the country's big cities in order to prove its still significant authority.

As is known, in the 2019 municipal elections, the AKP received 44.33 per cent of the votes and the CHP received 30.12 per cent. In thirty major cities across the country, 15 AKP candidates, 11 from the CHP, 3 from the PDP and 1 from the NMP became mayors. In the overall vote count, the AKP was in the lead, while the CHP received more votes in the big cities. The AKP was actually able to create serious opposition to the PPP mayors by winning a majority in the municipal councils.

Since the elections are still two months away, it is certainly incorrect to make predictions now. However, a preliminary analysis of the pre-election situation shows that the ruling party has a good chance of winning, despite the existing economic problems. The CHP, on the other hand, will have to pass a very difficult test in order to maintain the achieved results.