STRATEGY AND FRUSTRATIONS

Until recently, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seemed to be the epitome of "political resilience". He managed to retain his position as the head of government after the "barbecue revolution", which lacked widespread support in Armenia, to strengthen his power in the parliamentary elections in 2018, to survive the clashes in Tovuz and the 44-day war, as well as the storming of the parliament in Yerevan.

However, now that Azerbaijan has ended the Armenian occupation of its territories, liberating not only the Araz Valley and Shusha, but also Khankendi, Khojaly, Aghdere, and Khojavend, the domestic political situation in Armenia is becoming much more dangerous for Pashinyan than ever before.

"Anti-corruption" campaign with political implications

The pro-Pashinyan camp in Armenia collapsed in early February. The Investigative Committee of Armenia announced raids in the Ministry of Economy of Armenia, resulting in the arrest of seven people. The details of charges were reported as the abuse of power by prior agreement. Specifically, under the tender process announced to create a bank of public investment programs, Armenian officials colluded with the head of one of the companies, creating artificial barriers for the involvement of competitors. As a result, the company that offered a bid three times higher (392 million Armenian drams, or almost $821,000) won. Earlier, it was reported that the director of Synergy Company Ashot Hovhannisyan was arrested. It was already a sensation. But the most intriguing thing is that one of the arrested was Ani Gevorgyan, the wife of the brother of Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan.

The Yerevan newspaper Zhokhovurd, a notorious but well-informed publication, now reveals shocking details. Thus, it reports a serious covert conflict between the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, and the Secretary of the Security Council, Armen Grigoryan. The conflict is driven by both personal ambitions and the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2026. In the course of the confrontation, Simonyan tried to undermine Grigoryan's role before Pashinyan, while Grigoryan in turn drew attention to the corruption scandal involving the speaker's relative.

This is already a dangerous scenario for Pashinyan. His team prefers to keep quiet about it, but until now, Nikol Pashinyan's remarkable stability was largely due to the fact that for 20 years (1998-2018) Armenia had developed a strong aversion to the corrupt dictatorship of the Garabagh clan. And there was no other alternative to Pashinyan except for the exes—Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan.

Now the situation is changing drastically. One of Pashinyan's main slogans—the fight against corruption—is being invalidated. It turned out that the barbecue revolutionaries are far from innocent in this regard. And the fact that now corruption money flows not into Garabagh, but into Ijevan pockets does not make much difference for the majority of Armenian citizens. The main thing here is that there is a rift in the prime minister's team itself. And apparently, it is not just personal ambitions that make sense in this situation.

Deepening divisions after the war

One can reflect on the fate of wide democratic movements in the nineties a lot, when, following the political rise of various popular fronts, radicals, liberals, various parties and inter-party alliances emerged in the republics of the former USSR.

The same scenario was seen during the first wave of colour revolutions in the mid-2000s: after overthrowing the 'despised' regime, the winners were eager to settle disputes among themselves. Pashinyan's barbecue revolution also brought together very different forces, but this alliance against the Garabagh clan could not last forever. And the expected rift in Nikol Pashinyan's team started as a result of the war.

It would seem that Armenia's defeat in the 44-day war and the outcomes of the September 2023 anti-terrorist operation in Garabagh should sober up Yerevan, bring it back to reality and not dream of an unrealised revenge. But this is with common sense.

Armenia missed the opportunity for a peaceful resolution after the April 2016 skirmish, when it became clear that the balance of power had shifted and the conflict had a military solution. It missed the chance to reach an agreement without painful steps after the 44-day war, even though there was even a roadmap—the Trilateral Agreement. After the anti-terrorist operation and the collapse of the separatist junta, hopes for revenge are rising again in Armenian society, fuelled, by and large, by the actions of Armenia's external patrons, such as France.

An old ailment is resurfacing in the Armenian political elite: the divergence of views on Garabagh. Thus, Nikol Pashinyan claims that he is ready to recognise Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, while members of his team throw fits about President Ilham Aliyev's vote in Khankendi.

According to the classical scheme, the confrontation between the so-called party of peace and the party of war, i.e., the revanchists, should unfold in Armenia today. However, there is still no real party of peace in Armenia, and Pashinyan, with all his unclear negotiating moves, can hardly claim its status.

Experts in Baku have already pointed out that it is at least premature to consider the current Armenian Prime Minister as the main hope for peace in the region. Armenia is consistently sabotaging all negotiating initiatives and disrupting the process of border demarcation and delimitation. In addition, instead of a peace treaty, Nikol Pashinyan proposes to sign some vague 'non-aggression' agreement. In other words, instead of real work on a peace treaty, his administration is trying to muffle the process and delay its signing as much as possible. In order, among other things, to keep the conflict in a state of limbo and wait for a convenient moment for revenge.

But the real balance of forces shows that such a dream is unrealistic. And many members of the Prime Minister's team already realise that it will be necessary to sign the peace treaty, and on Azerbaijan's terms. And that this will have quite understandable domestic political consequences for the signatories from the Armenian side. As a result, the "rats" are fleeing from the sinking ship, that is, the team of the incumbent Armenian prime minister. It is true that Pashinyan has managed to resist after a military defeat in two stages. But now a diplomatic defeat awaits him as well—signing a peace treaty on Baku's terms. However, there are fewer and fewer people willing to share the responsibility for this unpopular decision with him. Hence there are attempts to bail out and show their disagreement with the leader before he puts the final signature.

Foreign policy VS fight under the carpet

The split in Pashinyan's team is taking place against a very revealing backdrop. Armenia remains a member of the CSTO, has taken over the chairmanship of the Eurasian Union and, judging by indirect indications, remains one of the main channels for bypassing the sanctions imposed on Russia on the one hand. On the other hand, Pashinyan's team is openly courting the West.

First of all, with France. It was Paris that pushed for the deployment of an EU observation mission to Armenia. Today France and Armenia are talking about arms deals, Yerevan has received fifty armoured personnel carriers Bastion from Paris. Certainly, these flirtations with the West alarm Moscow. Despite all the challenges and difficulties, it has enough tools to fix the situation in Armenia. Moscow can look for alternative options for itself and will not stick exclusively to the Garabagh clan represented by its former leaders Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. The West, however, would like to get something more tangible from Pashinyan than plaintive appeals to Moscow. After all, despite all the seemingly pro-Western gestures, Armenia has not changed a single military agreement with Russia. Armenia's borders with Iran and Türkiye and checkpoints at international airports are still controlled by Russian FSB border guards, the Russian military base in Gyumri has already received additional deployment points - an airfield in Garakilse (Sisian), the joint formations of ground forces and air defense forces have not been dissolved...

Perhaps Nikol Pashinyan thinks that he is following a subtle and smart policy. In reality, his geopolitical nods have bored both sides. The Armenian media are already discussing a sensational leak: they say that Pashinyan ordered to create a kind of pro-Russian wing in his team as opposed to the pro-Western one. And if the main Westerner in the team of the current Prime Minister was and still is the Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan, then the pro-Russian wing is to be led by Defense Minister Suren Papikyan. He, of course, is a former Soros grantee and does not look like a model supporter of friendship with the Kremlin. But it is Papikyan who heads the Defense Ministry. And the army is the sphere where Armenia's dependence on Russia is the highest, and where the level of pro-Russian sentiment is the highest.

Although the Armenian media reported that the creation of a pro-Russian wing was initiated by Pashinyan, part of his team is sincerely oriented towards Moscow. The statement of the same Alen Simonyan that France will not love Armenia for its beautiful eyes and everyone is pursuing their own interests has a clear meaning. Seeking allies in internal political struggles is a classic scheme for external players. Especially when it comes to states like Armenia.