AZERBAIJAN'S CHOICE

In the early presidential election in Azerbaijan on February 7, 2024, the incumbent President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev secured a landslide victory with 92.12% of the votes. The voter turnout was over 75%, showing a high level of public support for the president. The other candidates trailed far behind, unable to challenge Aliyev's overwhelming advantage.

Analysts were not surprised by this outcome. They knew that the people of Azerbaijan were proud of their president's leadership in the successful liberation of Garabagh and the surrounding territories from Armenian occupation.

A journey of triumph

Azerbaijan's path to victory was not a matter of luck or coincidence. It was the result of a clear and consistent strategy that Aliyev pursued since he came to power. He first implemented an effective oil policy that boosted the country's economy and revenues. He then invested wisely in the modernization and professionalization of the army and the domestic military-industrial complex. He focused on acquiring high-precision weapons and drones, which proved to be decisive in the later battles.

The first sign of Azerbaijan's military prowess came in April 2016, when the Azerbaijani army captured several strategic heights, including Leleteppe, from the Armenian forces. This was a wake-up call for Baku, which realized that it had a new, capable, and motivated army.

Two years later, in the spring of 2018, Azerbaijan carried out a swift and stunning operation in Gizilgaya-Gunnut, freeing a large area in Nakhchivan from Armenian control.

In July 2020, Armenia attempted to provoke a conflict in the Tovuz region, where Azerbaijan's oil and gas pipelines run near the border. However, the Azerbaijani defence was too strong for the Armenian attack, which failed and retreated. On 27 September 2020, the 44-day Patriotic War began. Armenia, which had previously threatened to wage a "new war for new territories", tried to realize its ambitions by advancing towards the Kura River and the Russian border. But the Azerbaijani army launched a powerful counter-offensive that thwarted the Armenian plans. The Armenian forces suffered heavy losses and were pushed back from the Araz valley and the town of Shusha.

The international expert community was astonished by Azerbaijan's performance and achievements. On September 19-20, 2023, Azerbaijan conducted local anti-terrorist raids in Garabagh, which marked the end of the illegal separatist regime in Khankendi.

For Azerbaijan, this was more than a military victory and the restoration of its territorial integrity. It was also a vindication of its dignity and self-respect, which had been wounded by the humiliating defeat in the early 1990s. Despite the bravery and heroism of the Azerbaijani soldiers who fought in the newly formed army, they could not stop the Armenian aggression and occupation. For more than 25 years, Armenia gloated over its illusory "victory", sabotaging all diplomatic efforts and insulting and injuring Azerbaijan at every opportunity. The climax was Nikol Pashinyan's drunken dancing in Shusha, after the April 2016 clashes, when a sensible politician would have realised that the balance of power had changed dramatically since the early nineties... Azerbaijan did not just win but reclaimed its honour and pride. And this is priceless in politics. It is no wonder that President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev won more than 90 per cent of the votes in the elections.

And it was fitting and symbolic that the president cast his vote in Khankendi. The polling station was set up in the same place where the separatist leaders used to hold their meetings and plot their provocations against Azerbaijan.

Baku knows that the victory in Garabagh does not mean the end of the threats to the country. The idea of revenge is constantly on the agenda in Yerevan. Baku also cannot overlook the rising regional and international tensions. This includes the rift between Russia and NATO, the worsening situation around Iran, and many other issues. In this context, a strong army is essential for Azerbaijan.

Political reset

Many experts point out that the recent early presidential elections in Azerbaijan were the first ones to take place on the whole internationally recognised territory of the country.

Azerbaijan was the first to restore its territorial integrity by military means in the former Soviet Union. It was the first to show that the long-standing conflicts inherited from the Soviet past can be solved militarily, even if the aggressors are supplied with weapons by air. It was also Azerbaijan that proved that the internationally recognised borders of the new independent states are not to be violated.

A number of external actors were caught off guard by this situation. Many of them were comfortable with the old Azerbaijan, which could be pressured because of the Garabagh conflict. But they were shocked by the new Azerbaijan, which had passed the toughest test of statehood, implemented an oil and gas strategy, and freed its land from the occupiers.

In January 2024, the President of Azerbaijan said in an interview with local TV channels: "We must always be very vigilant, because the actions against us will not stop with the issues we mentioned, they will continue. After all, we have caused shifts on a global scale. Maybe analysts point out that the consequences of our victory have been costly for some countries. We have changed major layers in society. We have achieved a victory that goes beyond local importance. It has become a major issue on the international agenda."

As expected, on the eve and during the elections, the old weapon - accusations of insufficient democracy - was used against Azerbaijan. The climax was a provocative resolution in the PACE, which refused to recognise the powers of the Azerbaijani delegation.

Baku was prepared for some criticism during the elections. But the situation has changed dramatically. Today, it is not Azerbaijan that has to prove its democratic credentials. Given the public opinion that formed after the Garabagh war and the military victory, Baku had no reason to worry about the result of the vote. But the observers had to pass the test of objectivity. And not all of them did. The absurd attempts of the radical opposition and the media affiliated with it to present as "evidence" of election violations a video filmed several years ago in Kazan, as well as staged scenes, look ridiculous and pathetic. In Azerbaijan, even before the elections, experts warned that if the OSCE/ODIHR again starts to follow an external, in this case American, agenda and create fakes, the co-operation with this organisation might be terminated. So the anger of the country's citizens at the statement by the US Embassy about the "insufficient democracy" of the elections is understandable.

There was also no large-scale political pressure on Azerbaijan. The call of the head of the European Union Charles Michel to President Ilham Aliyev to congratulate him on his victory in the elections, among other things, put an end to the hopes of some that the elections would not be recognised and that this would raise the issue of guarantees of the rights of Armenians, etc. Moreover, Charles Michel discussed with Ilham Aliyev not only the resumption of European mediation, but also specific areas of co-operation between Azerbaijan and the EU.

This means that even if a new Azerbaijan disturbs someone's plans and dreams, it will be impossible to ignore the reality.