INTO THE FUTURE

The normalisation of relations between Ankara and Cairo has been one of the most important recent developments in Middle East politics. The parties have been working towards this goal for years, and it will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the political processes in the whole region.

A symbol of this normalisation was the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Cairo - the first one since President Mohamed Morsi was overthrown in 2013. Egypt is the last Arab country with which Türkiye restored relations after the events of the Arab Spring. At that time, Ankara supported the rebellious Muslim Brotherhood, while its neighbours regarded them as a major threat to their regimes.

The Brotherhood of Discord

Today, amid a new war in the Middle East, Türkiye and Egypt are showing a willingness not only to restore relations, but also to negotiate the establishment of a regional security system in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Notably, the crisis in these relations lasted for a long time after Türkiye openly sided with the forces that threatened the ruling Arab regimes in the Middle East region. Since the Muslim Brotherhood managed to seize power in Egypt, unlike in some other countries, and the status quo had to be restored by force, the government of General Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi was more distrustful of Türkiye than any other neighbour.

Erdogan, on his part, openly condemned the coup and the repression of the opposition, saying, "Wherever they occur... coups are bad. Coups are clear enemies of democracy. Those who rely on arms cannot build democracy... Democracy can only be built by the ballot box."

It is noteworthy that right after the coup, the members of the "brotherhood" who managed to escape fled mainly to Türkiye, but also to Qatar and the UK. They felt safest in these countries. The Egyptian leadership tried at first to normalise relations with Ankara, hoping to achieve at least external neutrality. But when Erdogan called the shooting of demonstrators in Cairo on August 14, 2013 a "massacre of peaceful protesters" and demanded that the Egyptian prosecutor's office bring al-Sisi to trial, Cairo changed its stance. Planned joint naval exercises were cancelled, and the Egyptian Foreign Ministry accused Türkiye of interfering in the country's internal affairs.

Following this, Ankara recalled its ambassador to Egypt, and Cairo responded in the same way. And so it went on until November 2013, when the Turkish ambassador returned to Cairo. However, Erdogan soon called again for the immediate release of former President Morsi, which led Egypt to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Türkiye and expel the Turkish ambassador, declaring him persona non grata. Türkiye did the same.

Protracted crisis

The situation did not change in 2014. In July, when Israel attacked the Gaza Strip, the situation worsened. Cairo played an important role in the negotiations between Israel and Palestine, while Erdogan called al-Sisi an "illegitimate tyrant" who could not be trusted to negotiate.

The events in Rabaa Square in Cairo in December of that year were followed by a severe crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Egyptian president labelled as "terrorist", as well as other anti-coup groups. The Turkish leadership strongly opposed this.

In April 2016, in an attempt to mediate reconciliation between Egypt and Türkiye, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz travelled to Türkiye right after visiting Cairo. Amid the Saudi king's efforts, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry attended the 13th summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul and spoke there on behalf of Egyptian President al-Sisi. It was the first time an Egyptian minister had visited Türkiye since the coup.

In a speech on July 11, 2016, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim hinted at Türkiye's willingness to restore ties, as there is no reason why the two countries "should quarrel." However, this time, Egypt proved less responsive. In a subsequent official statement, the country's Foreign Ministry mentioned that a precondition for the development of economic and cultural ties between Ankara and Cairo was "recognition of the legitimacy of the 30 June revolution."

Another round of tension between these countries arose due to the Qatari diplomatic crisis. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing Doha of terrorism. Türkiye stood among the few regional countries that supported Doha.

Shortly after, Egypt detained 29 people on suspicion of spying for Türkiye and declared the International Union of Muslim Scholars, which Ankara supports, a "terrorist organisation." The Turkish Foreign Ministry dismissed Cairo's claims as unfounded.

Overcoming a multi-year crisis

Only after the resolution of the Qatari diplomatic crisis, when Doha not only managed to restore ties with Middle Eastern countries but also strengthened its international authority without making significant concessions, did relations between Türkiye and Egypt begin to rapidly improve. Qatar acted as a mediator in this process.

This progress unfolded during the World Cup in Doha in November 2022. Turkish and Egyptian Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi met for the first time at a reception hosted by Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani during the tournament's opening ceremony. Since then, communication between the countries has continued through various channels.

In Türkiye, several major Egyptian opposition TV channels were closed down as one of Egypt's conditions for normalising relations. By July 2023, the countries had exchanged ambassadors, kickstarting trade initiatives. Trade between them surpassed $6 billion, with Turkish investments in the Egyptian economy reaching almost $3 billion. These investments created direct employment for about 70,000 people and indirect employment for 100,000 more, resulting in an annual turnover of $1.5 billion. Additionally, recent data from the International Monetary Fund reveals that Türkiye has become one of Egypt's primary export destinations in recent years.

Given the new circumstances, with the conflict in Gaza not only worsening Egypt's economic situation but also impacting the Turkish economy, both sides have found common ground on regional policy matters. The challenging conditions faced by Palestinians in Gaza and the potential border opening with Egypt on humanitarian grounds have pushed Cairo to engage in talks with all relevant parties to alleviate potential refugee crises. Ankara has expressed its willingness to assist both Egypt and the Palestinian populace in Gaza in addressing these challenges.

For Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood continues to pose a threat to political stability. It is also recognized that a significant portion of Palestinians in Gaza espouse "brotherhood" ideologies. Therefore, under current conditions, dialogue with Ankara, which holds influence over Palestinian group leaderships in Gaza, could be pivotal in mitigating their impact on Egyptian society. Any destabilization in Egypt is not in Türkiye's interests, as it could lead to a new wave of refugees. Hence, both Ankara and Cairo may find value in engaging in dialogue to reduce risks stemming from regional instability. This intent is further supported by the Turkish President's visit.

Planning for the future

As both Turkish and Egyptian ports have witnessed economic setbacks due to unsafe shipping practices in the Red Sea, there is mutual interest in enhancing cooperation on various regional issues. This includes bolstering trade relations through collaborative projects.

For instance, the aim is to increase the trade volume between the two countries to $10b or more in the next few years. In addition, the military sector is also being added to the traditional areas of co-operation. Just before the visit of the Turkish head of state to Egypt, the Turkish Foreign Minister announced that Ankara would sell military aircraft to Cairo as a precursor to further military contacts.

Türkiye and Egypt are the largest regional powers in both the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. This fact brings the countries closer together in creating a unified regional security system, in which they both have an interest.

In recent years, Türkiye has been isolated from multilateral cooperation in the region due to strained relations with its neighbours. Specifically, Eastern Mediterranean countries have formed two active trilateral formats (Egypt-Greece-Cyprus and Greece-Cyprus-Israel). They are often joined by other players such as the UAE and France. Reconciliation between Egypt and Türkiye may change the political situation and involve Ankara, which normalised relations with Athens in late December. Türkiye hopes for Egypt's support in the negotiations on joining the Gas Forum and resolving disputes with the countries that are members of it. It also wants to sign an agreement with Egypt on maritime borders.

Ankara believes that Egypt will continue to support the Turkish version of demarcation in the Mediterranean rather than the Greek one. Many recall that in 2021, Egypt, when announcing a tender for hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, recognised the Turkish version of maritime border demarcation. This means that there will be even fewer conflicts in relations between the countries.