FAILED HOPES

The Munich Security Conference has concluded. Luckily for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, this time there were no debates with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The significant event in Munich concerning Armenia-Azerbaijan relations was the negotiations between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz also involved. The outcome appeared modest: an agreement to continue talks and a Foreign Ministers' meeting to prepare a peace treaty. However...

A Diplomatic Victory

It is undeniable that the Munich meeting favoured Azerbaijan. The negotiation platform was rightfully considered as European, although French President Emmanuel Macron was notably excluded from the process.

Furthermore, during a meeting with the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, the Azerbaijani President brought up the official dissolution of the Minsk Group. Additionally, Baku invalidated the outcomes of the Granada negotiations, where Azerbaijan abstained due to Macron's biased stance.

It's worth remembering that back then, Ilham Aliyev set a condition: either Macron would not attend the talks or Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should also be invited. This condition was not met, leading to Azerbaijan cancelling the Granada meeting. The statement on Garabagh  drafted there cast doubt on the European Union's mediation role. Naturally, Baku adamantly refused to sign the unilaterally adopted document.

Against this backdrop, the Munich meeting represents a new format. The German Chancellor initially hosted the negotiations and later they proceeded in a bilateral setting: Aliyev-Pashinyan, without intermediaries as insisted by the Azerbaijani President. Thus, despite modest outcomes, Azerbaijan has solid grounds to view this event as a diplomatic win.

When Guns Are Not Silent

Experts view the fact that negotiations occurred amidst the tense situation at the start of the Munich Conference as a significant achievement. It's worth noting that on February 12th, Armenia provoked an incident on the border with Azerbaijan. An Armenian sniper seriously injured an Azerbaijani border guard, leading to Operation "Retaliation" and subsequent casualties acknowledged by Armenia.

While border incidents occurred before, tranquility had prevailed for months. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia had started withdrawing troops from the border. Third-country experts did not perceive an immediate threat of a major conflict. The EU's civilian monitoring mission personnel expressed satisfaction, claiming credit for preventing aggressive actions from Azerbaijan against Armenia.

However, the recent border clashes shattered this calm scenario. While individuals such as Josep Borrell could argue about the purportedly "disproportionate" Azerbaijani response, the undeniable fact remained - the initial shot was fired by Armenia. Azerbaijan contended that the provocation was no accident and accused Yerevan of plotting a potential "lightning invasion". Azerbaijani experts connected these plans to the visit of a French general to the border from the Armenian side and the detention of a Czech citizen who crossed illegally from Armenia. Officially labelled as a lost mountaineer, questions arise about how this individual managed to bypass Armenian checkpoints and traverse minefields.

Why Yerkrapah?

Following the incident, Yerevan identified the four deceased as members of the Yerkrapah Volunteer Union, an organisation comprising veterans of the Garabagh war. The reliance on elderly volunteers for border duties sheds light on Armenia's internal issue of a demographic crisis. Another concerning aspect is the discrepancy between the Armenian Prime Minister's portrayal as a "dove of peace" and his vague promises to recognise Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. In reality, Yerevan continues to strategise for potential retaliatory actions.

Armenia has not forgotten its military setbacks. They believe Azerbaijan has not yet fortified itself adequately in the newly acquired regions to build defence structures and deploy military assets. Moreover, they seem to convince themselves that Azerbaijan's military capabilities were significantly diminished by the conflicts of autumn 2020 and anti-terror operations in September 2023.

The presence of the Yerkrap volunteers at the border is not coincidental. These volunteers are perceived as the most battle-ready and historically successful group, attributed to Armenia's military achievements in the early 1990s.

The veterans of the First Garabagh War - the Yerkrap volunteers - retain their reputation as Armenia's most formidable contingent. Their proximity to the front-lines during discussions of potential territorial gains hints at planned actions. Thus, the border provocation by Yerkrapah signals intentions towards territorial ambitions.

Yerevan's Plans Foiled

The border provocation on the eve of the Munich Conference and the Aliyev-Scholz-Pashinyan meeting was likely not a spontaneous event. Pashinyan had specific intentions upon arrival, aiming for territorial gains to shake off Armenia's "loser" label and bolster its negotiating position. Yerevan anticipated that border clashes would garner "European" support.

However, these aspirations did not materialise as expected. Even longstanding allies hesitated to provide full support. The European monitoring mission faced challenges, leading Pashinyan to scale back military activities and attend the conference with tempered expectations.

Munich also uncovered unforeseen revelations for Yerevan. Contrary to expectations, there was no significant crisis in US-Azerbaijan relations or an anti-Western shift by Azerbaijan. President Aliyev engaged in an impressive 24 meetings in two days with global leaders and corporations, demonstrating a step towards normalizing relations with the US. Baku emphasises that its ties should not be overshadowed by relations with Armenia. Following Munich, Pashinyan visited Paris and seemingly received promises of support from Macron, although France's reliability remains questionable, posing a potential challenge for Yerevan.