MULTI-VARIABLE FORMULA

In circumstances where Ukraine faces a chronic shortage of weapons and military equipment, and Washington hesitates to emphasize this amidst domestic political discussions, observers are increasingly inclined to believe that Kyiv must consider potential scenarios for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Similarly, in Moscow, there is an acknowledgment that the continuation of hostilities will adversely impact not only the internal situation but also Russia's position in the global security system. Consequently, Russia is increasingly indicating its reluctance for the conflict to persist indefinitely.

Both sides naturally view peace through their respective lenses, ideally seeking complete victory while not excluding the possibility of achieving peace through diplomatic channels.

Swiss Mediation in Action

During his official visit to Bern at the end of January, President Vladimir Zelensky requested Switzerland to facilitate peace talks on Ukraine. Reflecting on her meeting with the Ukrainian leader, Swiss President Viola Amherd stated, "Zelensky inquired if Switzerland would be willing to host a high-level peace summit," and confirmed her agreement to assist in organizing such an event.

A month later, coinciding with the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict's commencement, the Swiss Foreign Ministry expressed its support for any peace initiatives in Ukraine and disclosed plans to convene a similar conference in April. Furthermore, Bern is open to considering all proposals within the framework of the conference, including those put forth by Kiev, Moscow, as well as other nations such as China, Türkiye, and even Saudi Arabia.

The Swiss Foreign Ministry underscored that the conference aims to initiate a process towards achieving a "common understanding of the world" in Ukraine, garnering support from as many countries as possible at the highest political level. While the exact number of participating countries remains unspecified, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis emphasized that invitations would extend beyond Western nations, as various countries are actively contributing peace proposals.

The Significance of Prince's Proposals

While numerous countries discuss peace in Ukraine, only a select few present tangible solutions. Notably, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) stands among those offering concrete options.

On February 27, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Saudi Arabia, focusing discussions on the "peace formula" and the repatriation of prisoners and deportees. Given Ukraine's current challenges on the frontline and concerns regarding delayed military and financial aid, there is a growing sense of urgency within Ukrainian leadership to explore pathways to peace. Against the backdrop of strained Russia-West dialogue, Kiev seeks to refine its "peace formula" with support from Saudi Arabia, leveraging the Kingdom's rapport with Russian authorities. KSA wields significant influence capable of potentially swaying Moscow's stance on key peace-related issues.

Noteworthy is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's past peace proposal, indicating ongoing analyses of practical implementation possibilities by involved parties. President Zelensky highlighted a "productive meeting" held in Jeddah last August among advisors, underscoring progress towards realizing the "peace formula." While Moscow deems the current "formula" unacceptable and rules out negotiations based on it, Kiev anticipates that prolonging the war could detrimentally impact Russia's military capabilities, exacerbate socio-economic challenges, and escalate internal political tensions. Notably, calls for peace have recently emerged from key figures within the Russian political hierarchy.

President Zelensky hints to Prince Mohammed about his potential role as a mediator between himself and President Putin, recognising the opportunity for the Saudi prince to play a significant role in brokering an agreement between Kiev and Moscow. Such an accord could mark a notable achievement for both the Saudi heir and his nation.

Despite his ambitions, Prince Mohammed is a rather pragmatic politician and is unlikely to advertise his mediation efforts that may not bring the desired results. Therefore, what can be expected from this visit, at best, is the continuation of KSA’s efforts to build humanitarian contacts between the parties and resolve the problems of hostages and prisoners of war.

Mediation with a Chinese Accent

China presents its own settlement plan, first published a year ago but met with limited response. Undeterred, Beijing revisits its proposal, possibly with new perspectives. China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, embarked on a fresh round of "shuttle diplomacy," emphasizing the importance of consensus on a ceasefire and advancing peace negotiations amidst the Ukrainian crisis.

"Prolongation of the Ukrainian crisis goes against the general interests of the international community. The main goal of the upcoming round of shuttle diplomacy is to reach consensus on a ceasefire and pave the way for peace negotiations,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

While officially refraining from endorsing Russia's actions in Ukraine, Beijing continues active collaboration with Moscow across various domains, positioning itself at the forefront of efforts to navigate sanctions. Li's recent diplomatic tour encompassed visits to Russia, Ukraine, Poland, and the European Union headquarters in Brussels. Despite scepticism among experts regarding the tour's success, considerations extend to enhancing Sino-European relations ahead of President Xi Jinping's anticipated European tour.

Nonetheless, experts harbour doubts about the efficacy of this diplomatic mission. They speculate that Li Hui's endeavours may also aim at enhancing Sino-European relations, particularly given the proximity to President Xi Jinping's upcoming European visit. Consequently, potential adjustments to China's mediation strategy and a willingness to address concerns from European nations regarding Beijing's close ties with Moscow cannot be discounted.

Some voices suggest that China's mediation role primarily serves diplomatic posturing, intended to showcase participation and influence within global processes. It is noteworthy that Li was notably absent from significant international peace dialogues concerning Ukraine, such as the conferences held in Copenhagen and Malta.

Erdogan, Pope... for direct talks

On March 8, President Zelensky visited Türkiye as part of ongoing efforts to explore peaceful conflict resolution options. Against the backdrop of the upcoming "peace formula" summit in Switzerland, this visit underscores Ukraine's proactive engagement with leaders maintaining favourable ties with Russian authorities and possessing varying degrees of influence over Moscow's perspectives on the conflict agenda.

Simultaneously, the Ukrainian leader declines to include Russian representatives among the summit participants, significantly complicating the peace-seeking process. In contrast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aligning with Kiev's stance on restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity, extends his mediation services to facilitate direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. Essentially, Erdogan casts doubt on the efficacy of a summit devoid of opposing viewpoints.

President Zelensky's assertion that Ukraine and its stakeholders will devise a definitive peace plan requiring Moscow's acquiescence raises concerns among Turkish officials. Additionally, Zelensky's skepticism regarding Russia's potential acceptance of such a document adds to uncertainties.

Türkiye advocates for prompt negotiations with Russia, emphasizing the importance of addressing matters without delay. Erdogan expressed disappointment over the underutilization of the negotiation platform Turkey established in March 2022.

Similarly, Pope Francis adopts a resolute stance, echoing the necessity for Ukraine to exhibit bravery by initiating negotiations with Moscow. In a February interview with Swiss broadcaster RSI, he urged Ukraine to seize the opportunity for dialogue to avert further loss of life. Highlighting the urgency of timely negotiations and the need for a mediating nation, Francis referenced Turkey among the countries offering their mediation services.

The Ukrainian "peace formula" remains shrouded in uncertainties unlikely to be resolved in the immediate future, mirroring the complexities of the global landscape.