WAR FANTASIES

World War III no longer appears to be a fantasy confined to conspiracy theorists, alarmists, and authors of science fiction doomsday movies. Throughout human history, major conflicts have arisen primarily due to disputes over resources and trade routes. This pattern continues today, as the established international order post-World War II faces imminent collapse, necessitating a new power equilibrium.

Historically, peace has been viewed as the interval between significant conflicts rather than a permanent state. The current global conflict landscape offers limited prospects for resolution through diplomatic negotiations. The prevailing atmosphere suggests a lack of genuine alliances, with most nations finding themselves at odds with one another. Notable partnerships like Russia-China, Russia-Iran, US-Israel, and even Europe-US are not unequivocally allied. The EU's diplomatic head acknowledged the uncertainty of relying on US defense, contingent upon the prevailing administration in Washington. Interests align based on situational factors which can swiftly shift due to unforeseen developments.

Primary Instigator

Presently, it is the escalating tensions in Ukraine that may catalyse a potential world war. The EU officials, notably Josep Borrell, candidly underscore the need for member states to brace for a possible conflict, stressing that a large-scale military engagement beyond Ukraine is no longer a far-fetched notion. Leaders such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps echo similar sentiments, cautioning about the ominous transition from a post-war to a pre-war era amidst escalating global threats. "I know it sounds catastrophic, especially for people of the younger generation, but we should mentally get used to the advent of a new era - the pre-war era," Tusk said. "Russia is threatening our neighbours. China is becoming increasingly aggressive. Iran is using its proxies to cause regional chaos from the Middle East to the straits of Yemen. And North Korea is constantly rattling its nuclear sabre. These malevolent forces are consolidating powers, and our democracy is in their crosshairs," Shapps said.

British and French foreign ministers advocate for Ukraine's victory in the conflict, emphasizing NATO's obligation to confront emerging challenges. Pentagon's Lloyd Austin warns against Ukraine's defeat leading to a full-scale war with NATO. NATO's military committee chairman Rob Bauer alerts Western civilians to prepare for a potential all-out war with Russia, while Sweden conducts military drills simulating a Russian incursion.

WWIII Risks

Former US President Donald Trump, contemplating a return to office, forewarns about the looming specter of World War III, envisioning a conflict surpassing past wars in scale and nature. Heightened tensions between NATO and Russia raise concerns of an impending direct confrontation, with reports speculating on a potential Russian incursion into Europe amid internal US political dynamics.

The evolving landscape does not discount the possibility of conflict between nuclear powers utilizing conventional weaponry or even tactical nuclear arms. Nations like Israel, Pakistan, and potentially Iran possess tactical nuclear capabilities, signaling a shift in the traditional nuclear deterrence paradigm.

Moscow maintains its stance of not seeking conflict with NATO while indicating readiness for such a scenario. Vladimir Putin has underscored that a full-scale Russia-NATO confrontation could trigger World War III. The Russian military's operational experience in the ongoing Ukraine conflict has bolstered its capabilities, including increased ammunition and drone production, alongside military reconstitution efforts. The Kremlin affirms preparedness for any NATO actions regarding potential Western troop deployments to Ukraine, following French President Macron's proposal.

Peace Summit?

A conference on Ukraine, also known as a "peace summit," is scheduled to be held in Switzerland in mid-June, immediately following the G7 meeting in Rome. The summit aims to convene a broad representation from the Global South to collectively present Russia with an ultimatum to cease hostilities in Ukraine. The feasibility of such a summit remains uncertain—particularly regarding the effectiveness of mechanisms to actualize this "idea." Moreover, the situation on the ground may evolve significantly in the interim. Nevertheless, there remains a glimmer of hope for peace, albeit faint.

In the meantime, Grant Shapps, the head of the British military department, posits that NATO faces threats not only from Russia but also from China, Iran, and North Korea. Mircea Johane, NATO's Deputy Secretary General, recently declared that the world has entered an era of "great power competition," involving Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, all poised to make "massive attempts to undermine American power."

Amidst the conflict in Ukraine, the current state of affairs in the Middle East is particularly alarming. The region is a nexus of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Houthis' activities in the Red Sea, the Israel-Iran stand-off, the Kurdish issue for Türkiye, and the ongoing situation in Syria. Analysts are pondering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' strike on the IDF's key infrastructure and other Israeli targets as a possible retaliation for the assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Some speculate that Tehran might maintain pressure on Tel Aviv by leveraging its regional proxies. Conversely, others suggest that Tehran might de-escalate in return for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and cessation of its ground offensive in Rafah, located in the southern Gaza Strip. Additionally, scenarios are being contemplated where Iran could deploy long-range kamikaze drones, cruise missiles, or even medium-range ballistic missiles.

The Israeli Air Force command and all airspace radar control centres are on heightened alert. Reports indicate that Israel and the United States might be coordinating a strike on Iran's pivotal nuclear and military-industrial facilities. Such reciprocal strikes could potentially escalate to engulf the entire region and escalate to a global conflict. It is evident, even to the layperson, that the current intensification in the Middle East has been facilitated by the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is essentially a proxy war between Russia and Western nations.

Another region of concern is Taiwan, which currently appears relatively stable. However, the situation could rapidly deteriorate, potentially leading to an eruption of conflict sooner than anticipated, especially considering the unpredictable nature of North Korea.

The potential development of a Third World War hinges on various factors: the ability of nations to organize, maintain internal stability, foster an ideological framework, harness cutting-edge technologies, and secure vital resources, weaponry, and manpower. Equally critical is whether the combatants can avoid targeting strategic assets, such as major nuclear and hydroelectric power plants. Moreover, the unpredictable forces of nature could also play a decisive role in reshaping the dynamics of a global conflict.

Some political analysts believe that the Third World War has already begun. Indeed, the Second World War did not start on September 1, 1939... So the ongoing war started, according to some, from the beginning of the war in Ukraine, while others believe even earlier: when the war in Syria unfolded, or right after the events that followed in the Middle East after 9/11. If true, and World War III can remain relatively localised, it would be the best-case scenario for humanity as a whole, but not for the affected or to-be-affected people and governments. The other worst-case scenario may unfold in five to ten years, if everything we are witnessing now is just the first steps to the real apocalypse.