WHO IS THEIR FOE?

The terrorist organization ISIL-Khorasan (IS-K), also known as Wilayat-Khorasan, has returned to the forefront after claiming responsibility for the March 22 attack at Crocus City Hall, which resulted in over 130 fatalities.

Less than a month subsequent to the calamity, the group broadcasted a threat of new actions against Russians. Official Moscow posits that the terrorist attack was orchestrated by external patrons—a claim that is challenging to either substantiate or refute. However, historical patterns often reveal the involvement of third parties in such incidents.

Russia's military engagements against ISIS and affiliated factions in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, coupled with Moscow's recent diplomatic advances with the Taliban, have positioned Russia in the crosshairs of extremists. Whether Russia's backing of the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad or its diplomatic overtures towards Kabul justify the unexpected assault in Moscow remains a contentious issue. Alternatively, could this act of terror have been commissioned by enigmatic third parties? Providing a definitive response remains arduous, yet an attempt to elucidate certain aspects of this perplexing narrative is warranted.

Global Jihad versus National Jihad

A principal ideological divergence between ISIS and the Taliban lies in the latter's advocacy for armed and political struggle confined to Afghanistan. In contrast, the Islamic State's ideology is predicated on the concept of global jihad. The historical collaboration between al-Qaeda, the precursor to ISIS, and the Afghan Taliban demonstrated negligible ideological disparities between the two entities. Nonetheless, their relentless pursuit of dominance and covert machinations have rendered them sworn adversaries.

The radical faction IS-K, an offshoot of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan - TTP), surfaced in 2014 following ISIL's proclamation of a "caliphate" in Mosul, Iraq. Subsequent to pledging allegiance to ISIS, its Afghan "emirate" was established. Khorasan, a historical expanse encompassing present-day Afghanistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, is referenced in the group's nomenclature, signalling its intended operational domain. It is noteworthy that IS-K's reach has since extended well beyond this region.

The organization's expansion climaxed between 2015 and 2016. During this period, international media outlets disseminated images of ISIS training camps nestled in Afghanistan's mountainous terrains, where recruitment of local youth was underway. At this juncture, IS-K's membership approached three thousand individuals, primarily targeting local Shiites and Afghan governmental forces. Concurrently, IS-K orchestrated terrorist attacks, including assaults on Shiite mosques across Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, culminating in thousands of casualties.

In 2016, Afghan national forces, supported by the US-led military coalition, initiated a series of operations targeting ISIS. For instance, militants attempting incursions into Turkmenistan were neutralized along the Turkmen-Afghan frontier. In August of the same year, the demise of IS-K leader Hafiz Said Khan, among others, was confirmed. The attrition of leadership and cadre members precipitated a diminution of the group's potency.

On January 1, 2017, IS-K executed a terrorist strike at Istanbul's Reina Club, claiming 39 lives and inflicting injuries on approximately 80 individuals.

The resurgence of IS-K in Afghanistan is dated to February 29, 2020, subsequent to the accord between the US administration and the Taliban. The faction commenced hostilities against Taliban positions, denouncing their collaboration with Washington.

Following the collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021 and the subsequent withdrawal of US forces, IS-K reactivated and perpetrated a series of heinous attacks. A suicide bombing at the Kabul airport stands as the most egregious, resulting in the deaths of roughly 170 Afghans and 13 Americans.

Subsequent years witnessed continued terrorist activities by IS-K against the Taliban regime within Afghanistan and Pakistan. For instance, in July 2023, an operation in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province resulted in numerous fatalities.

Simultaneously, IS-K asserted its presence in Iran. In October 2022 and August 2023, twin terrorist incursions at the Shahchirag religious shrine in Isfahan claimed over 20 lives. In January 2024, a bombing orchestrated by extremists during the annual commemoration for General Qassem Suleimani resulted in approximately 90 deaths. IS-K assumed responsibility for all three episodes, with Tajiks identified among the assailants. Notably, the group is also implicated in the assassination of two clerics in Mashhad, Iran.

On April 2, Iranian media, referencing local security agencies, reported the apprehension of two IS-K militants attempting to infiltrate the Hazrat Masuma Shrine in Qom, regarded as the nation's principal religious sanctuary. The detainees were purportedly plotting to execute bombings at the site.

Curiously, Türkiye also figures among the group's targets, despite its geographical distance from Khorasan and absence of direct military confrontations. IS-K militants have orchestrated several terrorist attacks within the country. For instance, they are credited with the assault on the Santa Maria Church on January 28 of this year.

Türkiye's law enforcement agencies are vigorously endeavouring to thwart such threats, routinely conducting operations against ISIS affiliates. As per official records, the Turkish Interior Ministry executed 1,329 operations from June 1 of the preceding year to April of the current year, resulting in the detention of 2,919 suspects and the incarceration of 692 individuals, some of whom are Turkish nationals.

What's Next?

Currently, IS-K, akin to al-Qaeda, orchestrates its operations clandestinely, eschewing territorial dominion, a stark contrast to its origins.

The orchestration of intimidation campaigns in nations beyond its declared target zone, specifically Türkiye and Russia, engenders numerous inquiries. It is noteworthy that IS-K has claimed responsibility for the majority of recent terrorist incidents within the region.

The political geography of IS-K's activities predominantly encompasses countries such as Türkiye, Iran, Russia, and Pakistan.

The faction's proficiency in coordinating and executing attacks in Afghanistan's remote highlands, as well as in metropolitan centres like Moscow and Istanbul, and southern Iranian cities, attests to its sophisticated terrorist network and training.

Some analysts posit that IS-K's claims of responsibility for terrorist acts are merely attempts to garner attention.

Another hypothesis suggests that IS-K serves as a façade, with the true instigators being the intelligence agencies of certain states.

Lastly, it is believed that IS-K executes its assaults at the behest of undisclosed third parties.

While the veracity of these theories remains unverifiable, historical precedents indicate that such emergent terrorist entities are typically manipulated by external forces. The resurgence of IS-K portends that Central Asia is poised to become one of the most volatile regions globally in the forthcoming years. And it appears that radical religious terrorist factions will continue to execute the bidding of their concealed patrons or clients for an extended duration.