VISIT CANCELLED?

The visit of Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Washington, initially scheduled for 8-9 May this year, has been postponed indefinitely. In the absence of an official statement regarding the trip's cancellation, speculation abounds about the decision's rationale. John Kirby, the US National Security Council's Coordinator for Strategic Communications, has indicated that there are currently no plans for the visit.

On 26 April, Jeff Flake, the US Ambassador to Türkiye, informed journalists that preparations for the visit were ongoing, with an official announcement of the date expected shortly before the trip. Yet, the date remains undisclosed for over a week, and notably, no official statement has been made on this issue.

Should an agreement be reached, it would mark Erdogan's inaugural official visit to the United States since January 2021, when Joseph Biden assumed the presidency. Otherwise, the incumbent US president may become the first to forgo an audience with a Türkiye counterpart throughout his tenure, especially with presidential elections looming in November.

A summit commemorating NATO's 75th anniversary is slated for 9-11 July in Washington, which Erdogan is set to attend. Observers deem a meeting between Erdogan and Biden at this event highly likely, though it pales in significance compared to an official White House reception.

The Background of the American Tour

The media began circulating news of Erdogan's planned US visit in mid-March, just before the municipal elections. Subsequent to the elections, Türkiye's media disclosed the visit's date. However, reports on 20 April suggested a postponement, with official confirmation on 25 April, albeit without clarifying reasons. This marks the first instance of such a development, with some local outlets attributing the initiative to Ankara.

Erdogan and Biden last convened in July 2023 during the NATO summit in Lithuania's capital, where Türkiye consented to Sweden joining the alliance after prolonged deliberations. This gesture led to a thaw in US-Türkiye relations. Biden even petitioned Congress to facilitate the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye, culminating in the US government's agreement to sell the contentious aircraft to Ankara earlier this year.

Amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Türkiye's regional significance, the dialogue between Washington and Ankara has intensified. In a relatively brief span, Secretary of State Blinken has made multiple visits to Türkiye, conferring with his counterpart Hakan Fidan. Given Türkiye's tense relations with Israel and the trade embargo imposed on Tel Aviv, Erdogan's prospective Washington visit now garners particular interest.

Who's to Blame?

Media in both nations attribute the postponement to logistical issues concerning Erdogan's Washington itinerary. Neither party has broached the trip's cancellation or infeasibility. Yet, the cause behind the delay of the Türkiye-American summit remains elusive. Various theories circulate within the expert community.

One hypothesis, proposed by Türkiye-based experts in Washington, concerns the visit's status. Reports suggest that Türkiye requested a high-level state visit for Erdogan, which was declined, leading to the trip's indefinite deferral. Washington typically reserves such grand receptions for key allies or special guests, complete with ceremonial displays and formal White House banquets.

Another theory posits that Washington urged Türkiye to reassess its ties with Russia, specifically to relocate the S-400 air defence systems purchased from Russia to a third nation. Türkiye's purported rejection of this stipulation is believed to have delayed the visit until the demand is softened. This notion gained traction following Defence Minister Yasar Guler's declaration that Türkiye has no intention of transferring the S-400 units to another country, including Ukraine.

A third narrative links the postponement to the Gaza conflict. Türkiye recently enacted stringent measures against Israel, culminating in a comprehensive halt to exports and trade relations following the visit's deferral. The Gaza war was reportedly a scheduled discussion point at the aborted Washington meeting, though it elicited no affirmative response from the US.

Determining the precise rationale behind these developments is challenging. However, it is evident that the Washington meeting holds considerable interest for both Türkiye's government and the White House. Thus, while Erdogan's visit lacks a rescheduled date, its outright cancellation remains unconfirmed, leaving its occurrence in question.

Conclusion

The recent deterioration in Türkiye-US relations is no secret. Despite upholding alliance commitments at the official level, Türkiye's recent overtures towards Russia, its involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean crisis, and Washington's policies in Israel, support for Syrian Kurds, and the White House's stern critique of Türkiye's leadership have strained their already tenuous ties.

Erdogan has vocally condemned Washington's additional $26bn aid package to Israel, questioning its efficacy in resolving the ongoing conflict.

The May 9 visit's cancellation suggests that Ankara harbours no illusions about addressing pressing matters with the current US administration, instead anticipating a more favourable communication channel post-November elections. This presents a delicate chance to mend relations, contingent on the election's outcome.

It is undeniable that a host of issues have accumulated in Türkiye-Washington relations over the years. Believing they could be resolved through a single American tour is naive. Recent experiences indicate that Türkiye seeks an active regional role rather than the passive position assigned by the West. Conversely, Washington has its own perspective on Ankara. In the current scenario, where bilateral relations urgently require repair or a "reset," neither capital appears prepared for reconciliation.