PEACE TO THE WORLD!

Recently, Washington has significantly ramped up its efforts to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia (KSA). This surge in diplomatic activity can be attributed to several factors. Foremost, amidst the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the looming threat of escalation, the United States is keen to prevent the region's leading Arab states from entering into hostilities with Israel. Such a development would not only alter the dynamics of the war but also profoundly reshape Middle East policy as a whole.

In this context, Washington has crafted a "Middle East defence pact" with Saudi Arabia, enabling Riyadh to acquire state-of-the-art American weaponry in exchange for recognising the state of Israel. The Saudis are poised to receive F-35 fighter jets, cutting-edge air defence systems, and long-range missiles. Additionally, the KSA is expected to curtail Chinese technological penetration into its most sensitive networks and limit Chinese investments. In reciprocation, the US is set to bolster investments in the Saudi economy, encompassing national projects, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. Moreover, the US commits to supporting Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program.

This agreement is pivotal to halting the conflict between Israel and Hamas, whose continuation not only risks escalating tensions throughout the Middle East but also complicates the political landscape in the West amid ongoing mass protests.

The goal is to end the war?

Consequently, the United States has expedited its efforts to achieve substantial progress in negotiations. To this end, the US President's National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, engaged in discussions with Defence Minister Galant in Israel on May 19.

A well-known stipulation from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of KSA, the chief negotiator on the Saudi side, is the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. This objective aligns with the current US administration's aims.

Indeed, the skirmishes in the Gaza Strip have become a significant concern for US President Joe Biden, potentially jeopardising his chances for re-election. Recent opinion polls indicate that support for the administration's policy towards Israel has plummeted to unprecedented lows. Within the Democratic Party and its supporting electorate, dissenting voices against the near-unconditional backing of Netanyahu's cabinet are growing louder. Even attempts to exert pressure on the Israeli government are met with disapproval, perceived as feeble and ineffectual.

Hence, the US is pressing the Israeli Prime Minister to revise his strategy for the ongoing military operation in Rafah and the subsequent regional settlement. A White House statement post-discussions asserted, "Mr Sullivan reiterated that Israel must align its military operations with a political strategy that ensures the ultimate defeat of Hamas, the liberation of all hostages, and a brighter future for Gaza." In essence, Washington is advocating for a comprehensive post-war resolution in Gaza, facilitating participation from both the Palestinian Authority leadership and Arab states in the final settlement, notably Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

It is also significant that Sullivan convened with members of Israel's select military cabinet, Beni Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, as well as the leader of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid. The latter specifically mentioned that the topic of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia was broached during the talks.

Who will stop Netanyahu?

Israel has been afforded the chance to forge an accord with Saudi Arabia, as stated by Jewish State President Yitzhak Herzog, reflecting on a meeting with a distinguished American visitor on 19 May. He suggested that such a move could mark a historical pivot in vanquishing the "Iranian evil empire." Indeed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contends that the Israeli military's operation in Rafah should remain beyond debate, as it is pivotal for the entire campaign in the Palestinian enclave. Netanyahu has acknowledged past disagreements with the US regarding actions in Rafah but emphasised that Israel's endeavours are vital "to ensure its survival and its future."

Netanyahu's unwavering position has sparked considerable backlash from an expanding segment of the international community. On 20 May, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, sought arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Defence Minister, and three leaders of the Palestinian group Hamas. He holds them accountable for war crimes perpetrated during the Hamas assault on Israel and the subsequent Israeli retaliation in the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu decried the decision as a "negative precedent" that "erodes the right of any democracy to defend itself against terrorist entities and aggressors." Joe Biden endorsed the Israeli leader, asserting that Israel and Hamas are incomparable and that the US does not classify Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide.

Backing an increasingly intransigent Netanyahu amid the deepening humanitarian crisis in Gaza risks intensifying discord among pro-Palestinian factions within the Democratic Party. It also contributes to the decline in Biden's electoral support and certainly does not enhance Washington's role as a mediator. Meanwhile, his adversary, former President Donald Trump, is capitalising on the situation, claiming he possesses the knowledge to promptly cease the bloodshed in the region.

Schism and negotiation

Amidst the mounting critique of Netanyahu's policies beyond Israel's borders, internal discontent within the coalition military cabinet is also escalating. One of its most influential figures, former Defence Minister Benny Gantz, has threatened to resign should the Prime Minister fail to propose a post-war blueprint for the Gaza Strip.

Furthermore, Gantz has set a deadline of 8 June for Netanyahu to present such a plan. According to the minister, the strategy should encompass the following objectives: the release of hostages, the toppling of the Hamas regime, the demilitarisation and governance of the Gaza Strip, and the establishment of a civilian administration in collaboration with the US, the EU, and Arab nations.

"If you opt for the path of zealots and steer the entire nation towards the precipice, we will be compelled to exit the government," Gantz declared. "Netanyahu would have acted rightly a decade ago. Are you ready to do the right and patriotic thing today?" he posed to the Prime Minister.

In agreement, current Defence Minister Yoav Galant underscored in a national broadcast that the absence of a definitive plan for the Gaza Strip essentially implies that Israel will assume control over the enclave, home to over 2 million inhabitants, post-conflict. Both politicians concur that military dominion over Gaza would escalate security threats for Israel.

The appeal of Gantz's proposal lies in its inclusivity, consideration of Arab neighbours' interests, and potential to serve as a precondition for Israeli-Saudi normalisation. This aligns with the current US interests. Perhaps the former Israeli defence head anticipates that Washington might back him in the event of the incumbent cabinet's dissolution, given the mounting internal contradictions. Netanyahu could also face war criminal charges, a prospect favoured by some influential Israeli political factions, potentially precipitating his removal.

As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, the situation is more complex than it appears. In a country devoid of opposition parties, where decisions emanate from a singular authority, even Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the architect of the current state of affairs, must tread cautiously to avoid public disapproval.

Riyadh gives conditional green light

Before his trip to Israel, Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The discussions covered various topics, including the nearing completion of a defence agreement and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Speculation about a potential shift in power and the imminent coronation of the prince has been fuelled by the ailing health of King Al Saud, who, following Sullivan's visit, was hospitalized in Jeddah with a high fever and joint pains, leading to a diagnosis of pneumonia.

It is widely acknowledged that Mohammed bin Salman will ultimately decide on the defence pact with the United States. Yet, it is believed he will weigh his decision against the regional and domestic backdrop. Should the crown prince ascend to the throne, he will face the intricate task of appointing a successor, potentially selecting from among royal family members who hold divergent perspectives on the unfolding events.

In either scenario, Prince Mohammed is pressed for time. He must ensure the agreement appears to bear the current king's endorsement, particularly given its lack of popularity, as regional and Saudi public sympathies largely align with the Palestinian cause.

According to The New York Times, Prince Mohammed has stipulated several preconditions for a Palestinian settlement that Israel must satisfy before any agreement is signed. These include withdrawing from Gaza, halting settlement activity in the West Bank, and endorsing a 5-year roadmap for the establishment of a Palestinian state, contingent upon the Palestinian Authority's implementation of requisite reforms to govern the nation.

To presume the Netanyahu administration's acquiescence to these terms would be overly optimistic. Equally, it would be unrealistic to expect Riyadh to breach its "red lines" by signing an accord amidst an active military campaign or as Tel Aviv asserts complete military and political dominion over the Gaza Strip.

On May 22, Norway, Spain, and Ireland acknowledged Palestine's statehood, urging other nations to follow suit, a move that sparked indignation in Israel. This is the current state of "normalisation" being observed.