TWO DAYS IN CHINA

When Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin conversed while seated in wicker armchairs or strolling under the willows of the Zhongnanhai residence, a government complex in Beijing, the specifics of their discussions remained undisclosed. The media and political analysts are left to decipher the information shared with the general public.

What we know publicly

The general public was informed that they "discussed many issues of bilateral relations and the global security system" and "agreed to deepen comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation." They expressed their commitment to closer collaboration in crucial sectors like energy, space, and arms. The discussions also encompassed agriculture, high technology, infrastructure, construction, transport, and other key areas. It was highlighted that China and Russia share "similar views on security" and stand united against various divisive practices. Beijing and Moscow proposed exploring the establishment of a sustainable security system in the Eurasian space based on principles of equal and indivisible security amidst the current geopolitical landscape.

Following the Russian President's visit to China, 11 documents were signed. The joint final statement asserts that "amid international turbulence, Russian-Chinese relations are navigating the challenges of a rapidly changing world with dignity, demonstrating strength and stability, and are currently in their prime historical period."

Vladimir Putin's two-day state visit (the highest diplomatic protocol) to China marked the first foreign trip by a Russian leader since assuming office as president on 7 May and the 20th during his tenure. Similarly, Xi Jinping selected Moscow for his first state visit following re-election as China's president last March. The Kremlin chief's delegation to China included a broad representation comprising almost the entire renewed government, numerous governors, and prominent businessmen.

In commendatory articles in Russian and Chinese media, Beijing-Moscow relations are portrayed as "an exemplary model for partnership between major powers and neighbouring countries" and "a catalyst for stability in the international arena." They proudly list their regional alliances as members and outline their shared objectives.

Details of main points

But what transpired in private discussions between Putin and Xi was likely focused on the crux of their relations. Notably, China's substantial purchases of Russian oil serve as a crucial lifeline for Russia amidst sanctions. Chinese companies have assisted Russia in overcoming shortages of various goods, including cars, smartphones, and household appliances.

Anticipated bilateral trade between China and Russia is projected to reach a record $240 billion in 2023. Putin accurately noted that economic and military ties between Moscow and Beijing have strengthened despite Western pressure. However, such pressure does not yield solely positive outcomes, despite Moscow's attempts to portray it as such. Western accusations against Beijing of supporting Russia with dual-use goods have led the US and EU to threaten Chinese banks with punitive actions.

These threats reportedly contributed to a decline in trade turnover between Russia and China in March 2024. Concerning "dual-use materials and equipment," major Chinese banks are distancing themselves by relying on smaller second or third-tier banks. Moreover, Moscow and Beijing have expressed keenness to enhance settlements in rubles and yuan; however, efficient financial cooperation mechanisms, including payment and settlement channels, are not yet well-established.

Understandably, Putin's visit garnered significant attention in the West. Some media reports have characterized the two nations as an "authoritarian duo," showcasing remarkable stability in their efforts to counter the United States. Others suggest that Moscow and Beijing envision themselves as the "architects of a new world order," free from American interference. Observers, considering Putin's penchant for symbols and the symbolic depth of Chinese culture, focused on the setting and circumstances of the meetings in China. They noted details like the "red carpet to emphasize unity," the "military guard," the "artillery salute," and highlighted Xi Jinping's rare gesture of hugging Putin during his farewell - a gesture laden with symbolism.

United standpoint

For the West, China and Russia hold significant importance as friendly and crucial partners. However, the essence of the relationship between Moscow and Beijing raises questions. Despite not being formal military allies with binding commitments, joint military exercises involving the Chinese and Russian navies and air forces, including near Alaska and Taiwan, have taken place. China is now showing interest in learning from Russia's combat experience against weapons from the EU and the United States.

Putin and Xi expressed discontent with the global security system dominated by military alliances under US leadership. Therefore, they affirmed their readiness to "enhance trust and cooperation in the military sphere," "expand joint exercises and combat training," and "conduct regular joint maritime and air patrols." Both sides aim to "enhance coordinated responses to challenges and threats continually."

In a joint statement, the leaders pledged to intensify interaction and coordination to counter what they perceive as Washington's detrimental stance of 'dual deterrence' towards their countries. During his visit, Putin visited the Harbin Institute of Technology in northeastern China, renowned for its defence research in missile and space technology. Notably, this institute has ties to the Chinese People's Liberation Army, leading to it being on the US list of restricted organizations. The visit also included officials associated with the Russian defence ministry, notably its new head Andrei Belousov.

Putin emphasized that the Russian-Chinese partnership is not aimed at any third country. Nonetheless, Western scepticism persists towards Moscow and Beijing's assurances. Washington views China as a significant long-term challenge to the international order and considers Russia a direct threat. On the other hand, Russia perceives NATO countries as a threat, while China views America's Asian "allies," such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, as potential threats.

Western publications analysing Vladimir Putin's visit to China offer contrasting perspectives compared to Russian and Chinese media. While Beijing resisted Western requests for assurances that its exports wouldn't support Russia's military actions, arms shipments and other military support to Ukraine were denied by the Kremlin. However, post-visit allegations by British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps based on new intelligence reports claimed possible lethal assistance flowing from China to Russia for use in Ukraine. Such developments are likely to unfold further.

Western media also highlighted that the Putin-Xi meeting did not yield announcements of mutual investments or major deals like constructing the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline for Russian natural gas supply to China. Instead, both leaders pledged in broad terms to "advance large-scale energy projects," hinting at ongoing developments in this area with potential future announcements.

Trivial bottom line

What can be inferred from all these developments? One simple yet fundamental conclusion emerges - in global politics, there are no permanent allies, only national interests. If Moscow and Beijing have chosen to adhere to this principle, the outcomes will undoubtedly be intriguing. The rationale behind Russia's current alignment with China is transparent. However, why does China seek alignment with Russia? While it's evident that Russia serves as a source of inexpensive raw materials and a market for China, the strategic advantage of a strong relationship with Russia, providing a secure northern rear and mutual support, especially given their extensive shared border, cannot be overlooked. A stronger Russia allied with China bolsters both nations. Conversely, a weakened Russia due to Western pressure allows China to expand its influence in post-Soviet regions, particularly in Central Asia.

On the flip side, as Russia faces isolation from the West, China remains the primary trading partner for both America and Europe. Xi Jinping is intent on maintaining the partnership with Putin without crossing the West's boundaries. The looming question is: What if the West crosses those boundaries itself?

Amidst a new phase of the US trade conflict with China, alliances become crucial for Beijing. The US has imposed hefty tariffs on various Chinese products such as electric cars, solar panels, medical supplies, and more, aiming to curb the influx of subsidized Chinese goods into the American market and bolster domestic "green" technology sectors. Similarly, the European Union contemplates similar measures. This trade war essentially reflects a battle for dominance in semiconductor production, crucial for future economic security. The West aims to counter the allure of Chinese high-tech firms globally, especially in 5G technology adoption.

The ongoing global competition revolves around new trade routes, high-tech distribution, and resources for emerging technologies' production - shaping the contours of the evolving world order. China seeks to assert its influence decisively and possesses the capability to do so. Moscow's proximity to Beijing significantly enhances its own prospects while augmenting China's influence manifold. Vladimir Putin's visit to China encapsulates this strategic alignment. The future outcomes of this alliance remain highly unpredictable.