NORMALISATION ARCHITECTURE

Turkish-Greek normalisation has entered a phase of irreversible development. This is evidenced by the visits of the leaders of the two countries. In December 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Greece, initiating the process of normalisation of relations. Subsequently, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis paid a reciprocal visit to Türkiye.

Convergence Architecture

Mitsotakis can be regarded as a co-architect of the normalisation process, which could culminate in the establishment of a new regional security order in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is predicated on the diminution of conflict potential between the parties, amidst ongoing divergence of interests on pivotal regional topics. These include the principles of maritime zone sharing and coastal gas field exploitation. Athens and Ankara are averse to becoming belligerents in an overt conflict, which, in addition to undermining their national interests, could precipitate the internationalisation of the dispute. This is the scenario both leaders most dread.

The imperative of the bilateral normalisation process amidst challenging geopolitical circumstances was cogently articulated by Fahrettin Altun, head of the Turkish Presidential Administration's Liaison Office. "We are inhabiting a time where robust, stable, and affluent regional actors must operate effectively. We are traversing a period where regional entities such as Türkiye and Greece ought to resolve their issues autonomously, grounded in mutual comprehension and national interests, devoid of direction, guardianship, or coercion from external entities. Hence, the collaborative endeavours initiated by Türkiye and Greece are today even more consequential and meritorious than in the past," Altun asserted.

Türkiye and Greece are intent on ensuring their frontiers do not become 'geopolitical fault lines' and they themselves do not serve as vanguards for foreign powers in the contest for dominion.

Following his dialogue with Erdogan, the Greek prime minister stated that the degree of mutual understanding between Athens and Ankara facilitates the genesis of a novel paradigm in the bilateral relations. Mitsotakis noted that his latest engagement with Erdogan marks the fourth in a span of 10 months: "This attests to the fact that two neighbouring states can forge such a level of mutual comprehension not merely as an anomaly, but as a constructive standard, which is not invalidated by the acknowledged variances in our stances. This normal relationship... also forges an improved quotidian reality."

Essence of Mutual Interest

The Greek premier is among the most pragmatic, accomplished, and influential European statesmen. He is distinguished by his autonomy and pragmatism in international affairs, with a pronounced emphasis on self-interest. Moreover, he hails from a storied Greek political lineage. His father, Konstantinos Mitsotakis, held the premiership in the 1990s, and his forebear was the esteemed politician Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The incumbent Prime Minister's great-uncle was Eleftherios Venizelos, a luminary of the Greek emancipation movement and Prime Minister for a dozen years. The Prime Minister's sibling, Dora Bakoyannis, has occupied the roles of Foreign Minister and Minister of Culture. She also has the distinction of being Athens' inaugural female mayor. Her progeny, Kostas, the Prime Minister's nephew, has also served as Mayor of Athens.

Before convening with the Turkish president, Mitsotakis articulated a significant pronouncement: "There is advancement in Greek-Turkish relations, yet there will invariably be areas of discord. Türkiye has not relinquished its assertions, but Greece is equally steadfast regarding its boundaries. We can collaborate with Türkiye notwithstanding the challenges. A favourable atmosphere is advantageous. We have witnessed no transgressions for an extended period, for the first instance since 1974. For instance, rather than undocumented individuals, we now host lawful tourists on our islands. Indeed, instead of contending with illegal migrants, we now greet legitimate tourists from Türkiye through a visa scheme. While not every issue will find resolution swiftly, dialogue is preferable to perpetual brinkmanship."

Simultaneously, Mitsotakis expressed disapproval regarding the conversion of the historic Chora Church in Istanbul into a mosque and voiced concern over the dwindling Greek diaspora in Türkiye. Conversely, Ankara harbours analogous grievances. Nonetheless, Erdogan maintained that "Türkiye and Greece harbour no insoluble dilemmas." In 2023, the bilateral trade turnover surpassed ₼4.1 billion, with aspirations to elevate this figure to ₼10 billion.

Ankara and Athens are acknowledged to possess prospects for collaboration in domains such as the economy, commerce, tourism, healthcare, environmental stewardship, and culture. In the initial quarter of 2024 alone, upwards of 168,000 Greek tourists visited Türkiye. This represents a 28.38 per cent augmentation compared to the corresponding timeframe in 2023. Collaborative tourism ventures could inject vitality into this sector for both nations, as both Türkiye and Greece are esteemed international travel destinations.

They also serve pivotal roles as transit nations for energy provisions. It is noteworthy that the Southern Gas Corridor, a gas transportation network, traverses the territories of Türkiye and Greece. Furthermore, they function as principal conduits for the conveyance of electricity from the Caspian-Caucasus region and Egypt. Greece and Türkiye could also emerge as transit nations for forthcoming hydrogen and renewable energy deliveries from the Caspian area to Italy.

Energy Perspectives

Among the initiatives fostering closer ties between Greece and Türkiye, the electricity sector occupies a prominent position. A secondary electrical linkage between Greece and Türkiye is of paramount significance. The scheme envisions erecting a second ultra-high voltage transmission line between Nea Santa and Babaeski (in the European segment of Türkiye).

The parties also aspire to augment the throughput of the gas pipeline infrastructure to facilitate the conveyance of natural gas from Türkiye to Greece via a 280-kilometre conduit. Through this pipeline, DEPA Emporias imports natural gas from Türkiye's Botaş. The export capability at the juncture of the Greek and Turkish national gas grids has swelled to 1.7 billion cubic metres annually, surpassing Botaş's extant exports to Greece.

Moreover, there exist prospects for synergy between energy bourses through the development of shared commodities on both the tangible and futures markets, culminating in the potential establishment of an energy exchange in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Yet, profound disparities persist concerning both the Cyprus and Palestinian subjects. For instance, countering Mitsotakis's assertion that Hamas is a terrorist entity, Erdogan countered, deeming it otherwise. "To the contrary, Hamas epitomises a resistance movement, defending its territories since their occupation in 1947," the Turkish leader declared during a joint media briefing.

Ankara's European Perspectives

The discussions also encompassed Türkiye's integration into the EU. Mitsotakis stated, "Greece persists in endorsing the process of Türkiye's accession to the EU, notwithstanding the prevailing challenges, contingent upon adherence to the European rule set." However, Ankara's full membership in the EU appears improbable in the near term, even under such stipulations.

During an official sojourn to Ankara, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg deemed the prospect of Türkiye joining the European Union a chimera. He remarked, "For many years, Türkiye has been diverging from the EU, both rhetorically and in action." Concurrently, he proposed "a tangible neighbourhood framework fortified by pragmatic collaboration" between Ankara and Brussels as an alternative to Türkiye's complete integration into the EU.

Indeed, for Athens, Ankara's accession to the European Union would yield distinct benefits. Primarily, Greece could anticipate the backing of the majority of the association's members on principal bilateral matters. Such support would substantially temper Türkiye's aspirations. Ankara is acutely aware of this and thus refrains from committing to untenable pledges, notably the non-recognition of Northern Cyprus's sovereignty.

Both Ankara and Athens acknowledge that the discourse regarding Türkiye's EU membership is merely a facet of political manoeuvring, a gesture towards the ethos of European solidarity. The dialogues between Ankara and Brussels concerning membership are pivotal, chiefly because Türkiye aims to sustain trade and investment privileges, including access to cutting-edge technologies. Concurrently, the EU leadership retains some leverage over Ankara concerning migration policies and European security matters.