SURPRISE U-TURN

There is a double holiday in Azerbaijan. On May 28, the country celebrated Independence Day, and the day before, control over four villages in the Gazakh district was restored. Major General Vusal Sultanov, head of the Main Border Guard Department of the General Staff of the State Border Guard Service, reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, Ilham Aliyev, that the state flag of the Republic of Azerbaijan had been raised over the villages of Baghanis Ayrim, Ashaghi Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Gizilhajili.

As political analysts observe, Baku has secured a significant and, most importantly, bloodless triumph. Speaking in Shusha on May 10, Ilham Aliyev declared: "Today, the Gazakh lands occupied in 1990 and 1992 are returned to us without a single shot. Delimitation and demarcation are conducted on our terms, and this is our subsequent victory."

This time there was no conflict. The return of the Gazakh villages is the outcome of the victory achieved in the 44-day Patriotic War.

Yerevan's challenging decisions

It took a total of 20 days to return the districts of Aghdam, Kalbajar, and part of Lachin to Azerbaijani control after the signing of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020. Moreover, the document referred not to three villages but three districts. The return of Baghanis Ayrim, Ashaghi Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Gizilhajili has understandably taken time. And there is no doubt that this was a very arduous decision for Yerevan. During his repeated meetings with the residents of these settlements, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attempted to convey a straightforward message–these villages legally belong to Azerbaijan. And if they are not returned, conflict cannot be avoided. A conflict in which Armenia has no chance. Not even for a tie. After two military defeats, Yerevan has nothing to depend on, while its external patrons are unlikely to intervene on a scale that could alter the course of history.

In his address to the nation on May 24, Nikol Pashinyan articulated a truly revolutionary thesis in which he critiqued the dreams of "historical Armenia". No Armenian political leader has ever dared to envisage a "great Armenia from sea to sea". Only Levon Ter-Petrosian made a cautious attempt in this regard in 1997 in his renowned article "War or Peace? Time to Think About It".

Ter-Petrosian tried to signal to his fellow compatriots that in a situation where Armenia occupied a fifth of Azerbaijan's territory, despite the efforts of the Armenian lobby, Baku succeeded in signing and initiating oil contracts. That the balance of power will shift not in Armenia's favour, which implies that it is essential to negotiate. "Armenia and Garabagh today are stronger than ever, but if the conflict is not resolved, they will be immeasurably weakened in a year or two. What we reject today, we will have to request in the future, but we will not receive, as has occurred many times in our history," Ter-Petrosian cautioned. But he was not heeded. Or rather, they did not wish to heed him.

Nikol Pashinyan hails from Levon Ter-Petrosian's team. And if we bridge the gap from that sensational article to the Prime Minister's current policy, his actions appear logical. But we should not forget that it was Levon Ter-Petrosian who was the President of Armenia when this country was seizing Azerbaijani lands, massacring Khojaly, Malibeyli, Gushchular, Balligaya, as well as the village of Baghanis Ayrim, which today is back under the control of Azerbaijan. What a peace wihsing president!

Remarkably, when Pashinyan assumed power, he was in no rush to seek a compromise with Azerbaijan and advance peace talks either. He had plans to construct a building for the separatist regime's so-called parliament in the then-occupied Shusha, hold Araik Harutyunyan's inauguration in Shusha, and dancing on Cidir Duzu. As well as his exclamations of "Garabagh is Armenia, and full-point!", after which there was no scope for negotiations. Even after the defeat in the 44-day war, Pashinyan maintained a 15,000-strong military contingent in Garabagh in defiance of all agreements.

After two defeats and a series of border incidents, Pashinyan has to consider the military situation inevitably. As well as international laws and recognised borders, however insignificant he considers them. Indeed, Armenia has been brazenly disregarding borders, UN Security Council resolutions, and international law for more than a quarter of a century. But as it turned out, they could play such games for a limited period, or rather until the Iron Fist hit back. The latter, as the President of Azerbaijan cautions, is always ready.

Baku has announced plans to augment budget spending on the army, defence, and power structures, which has scarcely escaped the attention of Yerevan analysts. Azerbaijan is confidently developing its own military-industrial complex - in cooperation with both NATO's Slovenia and Belarus. And this is not considering the traditional partners in the form of Israel and Türkiye. So this is not a situation where Armenia has any options for manoeuvre.

Moreover, after the anti-terrorist operations in Garabagh in autumn 2023, no one contemplates offering comfortable and compromise conditions to Yerevan. We have to accept what we have - otherwise, there will be war and guaranteed defeat. So, whether you like it or not, you have to relinquish territorial claims to your neighbours and not attempt to play revenge. It is time to commence demarcating and delimiting the border in accordance with international law and the requirements of Azerbaijan.

Revanchist sentiments on rise

How long will common sense in Yerevan last? Strangely enough, Armenian public opinion is more inclined to accept another military defeat than to renounce its claims to Garabagh on paper, Turkish Eastern Anatolia, and so on. The incumbent prime minister has yet to amend the constitution and erase any mention of Garabagh, Eastern Anatolia, etc., from it. Is Pashinyan prepared to go all the way, given the ongoing protests in Yerevan? The rallies in Armenia continue since May 9. The number of individuals detained after another mass protest movement led by Archbishop Baghrat Srbazan exceeded two hundred. Among them is Igor Khachaturov, son of Yuri Khachaturov, former CSTO Secretary General and Chief of General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces. Pashinyan has already prosecuted Khachaturov Sr. in connection with the events of March 1, 2008, when ten Armenians perished as a result of the shooting of protesters in the streets of Yerevan. Khachaturov was the commander of the Yerevan garrison at the time.

One can only guess whether Khachaturov Jr.'s participation in the protest rally is indicative of the sentiment among the Armenian military. It is true that Pashinyan has managed to take control of the police, which duly subdue protesters on the streets of Yerevan. But the army is different. Pashinyan's relations with generals have never been favourable, let alone today.

Garabagh bomb

Reports of raids and detentions of former mayors of Garabagh towns also provoke some concern. On May 23, law enforcement agents searched the apartment of Hayk Shamirian, once the mayor of Askeran; he was detained. According to Shamiryan's lawyer, earlier his client had met with Baghrat Srbazan. This was followed by the arrest of Misha Gyurjian, former mayor of Aghdere (Mardakert), the search at the residence of Davit Sargsyan, ex-mayor of Khankendi. The arrests began after Archbishop Srbazan met with officials of the former junta. Samvel Shahramanyan, the last so-called President of Artsakh, who signed the decree on self-dissolution of the junta, was not invited to the meeting. Apparently, the officials did not welcome his deliberate absence.

By the way, the members of the Garabagh clan may turn out to be no less formidable adversaries than the army and the church. The separatists who fled to Armenia include not only field commanders but also professional terrorists who harbour resentment against Pashinyan.

Surprises can also be expected from external actors. Moscow does not even attempt to show any signs of courtesy towards Pashinyan and his team. France is also engaging in a perplexing strategy. During Nikol Pashinyan's conspicuous visit to Paris, Emmanuel Macron virtually compelled Pashinyan to revoke the prohibition on entry to Armenia for Murad Papazian, the leader of the French Dashnaks, although Dashnaktsutyun is in staunch opposition to the incumbent Armenian prime minister. Papazian arrived in Yerevan, voiced support for the protesters and... met with the French Ambassador to Armenia, Olivier Decatigny. Analysts regarded "Papazian's case" as initial significant rift between Paris and Yerevan, which is a definite indication that France can also enjoy demonstrating some unfavourable manoeuvres.

Pashinyan has advantages as well. Firstly, there is a lack of prominent and charismatic leaders in the opposition. Moreover, the former heads of the Garabagh clan—Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan and Co.—are reluctant to relinquish their status as "leaders of the anti-Pashinyan opposition". This fact works for Pashinyan as well. The majority of Armenian citizens will not endorse the reinstatement of the criminal autocracy of the Kocharyan and Sargsyan era, even under the guise of revanchism.

As we can see, the situation in Armenia may yield many more surprises.