RIGHT TURN

The elections to the European Parliament (EP), held from 6 to 9 June, did not produce any major surprises. According to the results, the European People's Party (EPP) (Christian Democrats) secured the first place with 184 mandates out of 720 in the EP. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (Social Democrats) came second with 139 seats. The coalition of liberal parties, represented by the Renewing Europe faction, secured third place with 80 mandates. Following them were the right-conservative party European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) with 73 seats and the right-radical party Identity and Democracy (ID Party) with 58 seats. The Greens ranked sixth with 52 seats.

Observers are convinced that the "pendulum of the European political barometer" has swung to the right. For the first time in the history of European Parliament elections, the so-called Eurosceptics have become the second largest political force in the European Union.

Notably, these elections were the first since the UK's exit from the EU, adding to concerns over the rising popularity of Eurosceptics. Key topics included economic recovery, assistance to Ukraine, migration policy, and the energy transition. However, the main issue remained the future of the European Union. This is why leading European politicians were so actively involved in the election campaign, promoting their visions for this future.

Imbalance Between Desires and Opportunities

French President Emmanuel Macron proposes a stronger and more integrated European Union with a high degree of strategic autonomy. However, many voters are reluctant to support internationalism or a stronger Europe when they struggle to pay their grocery and energy bills. They are also highly sceptical about the urgency of meeting targets to reduce harmful gas emissions, especially if it negatively impacts their economic situation. Most voters are frustrated with the EU's migration policy, making some susceptible to nationalist and populist appeals.

It is no coincidence that Ursula von der Leyen, seeking re-election as head of the European Commission, has faced increasing criticism in recent weeks. Although the influential centre-right EPP supported von der Leyen's candidacy at its congress in March, her weakened position is expected to reduce her chances of re-election.

Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is pursuing more ambitious goals—reformatting the entire political system of the European Union. She aims to create a large right-wing nationalist faction by uniting her party, the Italian Brothers, with Marine Le Pen's National Union, Viktor Orban's Fidesz party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Polish PiS, and others. To achieve this, she needs to break up the existing centrist coalition in the European Parliament, which consists of Social Democrats, Liberals, and Christian Democrats, and pull the latter to her side.

These plans are evident in her words: "We are on the eve of crucial elections, because for the first time, European elections can put an end to unnatural majorities and counterproductive majorities. We must stay focused and stand with both feet on the ground. Let's look at the horizon."

However, these plans may be hindered by a possible agreement between Ursula von der Leyen and Giorgia Meloni. The feasibility of this is indicated by the signals von der Leyen has been giving. During the Eurovision debate, she noted that the Italian Prime Minister meets three criteria for a future partnership—he is pro-EU, supports Kiev in the war against Russia, and preaches the rule of law. Von der Leyen stated she is ready to work with MEPs from Meloni's Brothers of Italy party after the June elections. Meloni herself has not clearly responded to these messages. Although many recognise that such an alliance would give Meloni and her allies more leverage over the European Commission's policy and effectively make her a partner of von der Leyen in making fundamental decisions. In general, this is what the Italian Prime Minister means by "Let's look at the horizon."

The EU has numerous problems on the horizon that need to be resolved as soon as possible, which looks very challenging in the context of deepening political fragmentation.

Macron's Bad Luck

French Rassemblement Nationale leader Marine Le Pen also hopes to achieve a merger between the two national conservative and far-right factions. This could slow or block decisions on key EU projects and programmes, from the energy transition to support for Ukraine. The victory of the Rassemblement Nationale in the French elections has hurt the credibility of the French authorities and the French president, who positions himself as the political leader of the European Union.

Addressing a rally in Dresden during his visit to Germany, the French leader appealed to German youth: "Let's wake up!" Europe is not just a place where people agree on common rules, "it is a bastion of values, culture, individual and political freedoms." Europeans are united by common values, so "Europe is not a goal but a compass." If few people in his own country heed Macron's appeals, what can we talk about in this case?

It should be recalled that according to the voting results, the National Union received 31.8 per cent of votes in the European Parliament elections, while the presidential party Renaissance was supported by only 15.2 per cent of the electorate. After exit polls showed a clear victory for Marine Le Pen's far-right party, Macron announced the dissolution of parliament and the scheduling of snap elections.

Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections for 30 June and 7 July followed shortly after a call to do so by Jordan Bardella, who headed the Le Penist electoral list. This means that the National Rally, not Macron and his party, henceforth determines France's political agenda. Marine Le Pen herself has declared her party's readiness to govern France.

Overall, Macron was doubly unlucky. On the one hand, he lost at home with a crushing score, and on the other, he faced an unprecedented strengthening of the position of one of his main foreign policy opponents in Europe—Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The Brothers of Italy

The elections showed that while European voters favour a united Europe, they want to see it differently from the vision of leading European politicians. The European People's Party managed to stay afloat largely because its candidates increasingly adopted rhetoric used by right-wing or extreme right-wing parties. The intention of the head of the European Commission to actively cooperate with one of the most right-wing parties in Europe, the Brothers of Italy, indicates a significant compromise by European political elites towards parties with a radical political agenda.

This involves trade-offs in implementing European energy transition policies. A more right-wing European Parliament will make it more difficult to approve an ambitious EU climate policy, yet most of the decisions taken to date are likely to remain unchanged. EU climate action over the next five years will depend on the new European Commission, which is responsible for shaping the EU's legislative framework. The election results signal that adopting new, more radical decisions may face serious obstacles. This could have implications for implementing the EU's 2040 climate strategy, which aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 90 per cent.

Discussions may also arise around the EU migration policy. The strong anti-migration sentiment in the new European Parliament suggests that measures against illegal migration will likely tighten. Nearly ten years have passed since the peak of migration to Europe from Africa and the Middle East in 2015, known as the start of the "migration crisis." At that time, over one million people from these regions sought asylum in the European Union. Since then, the numbers have remained high. In 2023, 275,000 migrants reached Europe via the Mediterranean Sea, up from 180,000 in 2022.

To control the influx of migrants, the EU and some member states have adopted closed-door policies, strict external border controls, and anti-migration measures, increasingly turning Europe into a "fortress." Between 2014 and 2022, the total length of border fences on the EU's external borders and internally increased from 315 to 2,048 kilometres. The armed forces are increasingly being used to manage the situation.

The European Parliament recently adopted the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, which permits the use of facial recognition technology and the collection of biometric data. Migrants' images and data can now be stored for up to 10 years, and police forces across the EU can access these databases. These policies may become even more stringent under the new Parliament.

Just days before the elections, Giorgia Meloni, a chief critic of European migration policy, visited Tirana to discuss a new migration agreement with her Albanian counterpart, Edi Rama. The two sides signed a five-year agreement in November 2023, under which Albania agreed to host up to 3,000 migrants. Given that it takes about a month to process asylum requests, the number of applicants sent to Albania could reach 36,000 per year. This model could be tested with other countries as well if approved by the European Commission.

Finally, many in the new European Parliament are sceptical about supporting Ukraine. They believe that domestic policy issues should take precedence over economic or military-technical assistance to Kyiv. Whether they will be able to form a stable majority that influences decisions on this topic, or whether the recent policy will remain unchanged, will be revealed by the elections of the European Commission leadership, which will not occur before November of this year.