FAILURE WITH CONSEQUENCES

The elections in German states of Saxony and Thuringia proved to be a setback for the ruling coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany, referred to as "Traffic Light" due to the colours of its parties: Social Democrats (red), Liberals (yellow), and Greens. The winners were two non-establishment parties. The first is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is characterized as far-right, nationalist, Eurosceptic, xenophobic, and even fascist. The second is the Sarah Wagenknecht Union, founded in January of this year, whose members are often labelled radicals and even active communists.

AfD secured victory in Thuringia with 32.8 percent of the vote, coming in slightly behind the CDU (conservative Christian Democratic Union) in Saxony with 31.9 percent versus 30.6 percent, respectively. Sarah Wagenknecht's Union placed third in both states, garnering 11.8 percent in Saxony and 15.8 percent in Thuringia. The Left Party, the successor of the Socialist United Party of Germany that ruled the GDR, received around 13 percent.

In contrast, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a significant loss, receiving only 6 percent in Thuringia and just over 7 percent in Saxony. The Greens did not even meet the passing threshold in Thuringia, obtaining only 3 percent, while in Saxony they barely exceeded it with 5.1 percent. 

Who's With Who?

The Brandenburg elections are still pending in September and are likely to confirm the outcomes seen in Saxony and Thuringia. Observers suggest this can be viewed as the beginning of the campaign for the parliamentary elections scheduled for a year later, which already appears to be quite intriguing.

Meanwhile, the situation is particularly noteworthy, as the election results indicate that no party has garnered enough votes to establish a regional majority government. It is evident that the CDU will emerge as the primary negotiating force, with Sarah Wagenknecht's Union holding significant bargaining power. Other parties also possess considerable negotiating strength. However, a critical question remains: how sustainable and functional will these coalitions be? The AfD is anticipated to be the main party that others will avoid.

It is well-known that for all other political forces, the Alternative party is viewed as dishonourable. Nevertheless, there is a collective understanding that regardless of the coalition formed and what transpires next, the party's influence will continue to grow significantly. With numerous seats secured, even if it does not enter the government, it will nonetheless possess what is known as a "blocking minority" in the Landtag.

Alice Weidel, co-chairman of the AfD, stated that the party's emergence as the strongest force in the land elections for the first time marks a historic achievement. He characterized the defeat of Olaf Scholz's "traffic light coalition" as a "requiem" for the party. It is also possible that the AfD will attempt to moderate its rhetoric somewhat to facilitate coalition opportunities and advance its position of power. This will present a challenging and momentous choice for party leadership.

Perhaps Sarah Wagenknecht has taken the most advantageous position; she did not precisely win but rather "sort of" won because everyone needed her. From the outset, her party has positioned itself specifically as an alternative to the AfD. This strategy has proven effective but has yielded a dual result for the authorities, as it attracted voters both opposing the AfD's success and those dissatisfied with the current federal government.

At the same time, Wagenknecht's views are perceived as quite radical for "good ol' Europe," advocating for higher taxes on the wealthy, nationalizing corporations, enhancing state regulatory roles, expressing scepticism about climate protection, and limiting refugee admissions. In international affairs, Wagenknecht even critiques trans-Atlanticism, which sounds rather extreme but remains a fact nonetheless. 

On the Importance Of Elections

Let us clarify what land elections are in Germany and why they hold significance. The 16 German federal states (Landes) possess a certain degree of independence in lawmaking, budget allocation, and other areas. Their elections are called by regional authorities and occur on different dates. Each state has its own importance, but Saxony and Thuringia have consistently attracted special attention. Saxony (Germany's easternmost state) and Thuringia are regarded as among the most economically developed regions in eastern Germany (i.e., in the former GDR), featuring industries such as automotive manufacturing, chemical production, optical manufacturing plants, semiconductor industry centres, tourism, and advanced infrastructure. It is also believed that these areas retain a mentality distinct from other parts of the country, persisting long after German reunification. This mentality renders extreme right and left views increasingly appealing over time.

Naturally, the rising popularity of both the AfD and Sarah Wagenknecht's Union in eastern Germany raises concerns for Berlin. Scholz has demanded that the AfD be excluded from government participation, asserting that "democratic parties must create a stable government without right-wing extremists." Some of Scholz's supporters have even described the election results as a "catastrophe for democracy" in Germany. One of the most severe assessments came from the weekly Der Spiegel, which summarized that "for the first time since 1945, right-wing extremists are winning elections in Germany." According to the publication, "this is not a crisis of the ruling parties; it is a crisis of liberal democracy."

In this context, Scholz must seriously contemplate his own political future. The alarmingly low performance of the "traffic light coalition" suggests voter dissatisfaction with the government, leading some experts to speculate about a potential resignation by the chancellor. A Deutschlandtrend poll indicates that over 80 percent of German voters hold negative views regarding the "traffic light coalition's" performance—the lowest approval rating since it assumed power in 2021. The Greens are facing a dire situation as well, having lost their voter base and potentially risking exclusion from future power dynamics.

Enemies of Democracy and Friends of Putin

The elections in Saxony and Thuringia further underscore critical issues such as the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia (the so-called "Russian map") within German domestic politics (particularly prominent in eastern regions). Issues surrounding illegal migration and rising crime rates have gained heightened importance against this backdrop. It is widely acknowledged that both the AfD and Sarah Wagenknecht's Union advocate halting arms deliveries to Ukraine; consequently, these factions—especially the AfD—are accused of pro-Russian sympathies. As Katrin Goering-Eckardt, Bundestag vice-president of the Green Party articulated, "enemies of democracy and friends of Putin" are prevailing. Regarding illegal migration, it is important to note that this issue extends beyond Germany; many experts argue it stems from years of poorly conceived policies by European authorities overall.

Interestingly, despite electoral successes among extreme forces across various European countries, they have yet to secure genuine power. France serves as perhaps the best example of this phenomenon. However, such circumstances continue to foster increasing irritation among voters who perceive their votes as having no impact on outcomes. Moreover, they hear their chosen representatives labelled radicals and neo-Nazis by current authorities, which implies they too are implicated... Consequently, a growing number of dissatisfied individuals could heighten the risk of a political crisis.

That said, it would be misguided to assume (as some media outlets do) that extreme right and left parties genuinely represent a majority opinion among voters. Undoubtedly, trust in traditional parties is waning among Germans—Thuringia was a reliable stronghold for the CDU for many years following reunification. However, this trend has not yet reached critical levels and may still change over time.

A Deutschlandtrend poll revealed that if Bundestag elections were held soon, support for the CDU/CSU bloc would amount to 33 percent among voters; support for Alternative for Germany stands at 7 percent; for Sarah Wagenknecht's Union at 8 percent; for the Left Party at 3 percent; and for all other parties combined at 9 percent. Numbers serve as an insightful indicator for drawing conclusions."