ROUTE POLICY

The desire to control strategic communication routes has always, or almost always, been a driving factor in international politics and economics. This ambition is linked to the need to ensure security, protect national interests, and gain benefits from trade and transit. Controlling key routes allows states to influence other countries, protect their borders, and expand their spheres of influence.

Historically, this has manifested in military conflicts, colonization, alliances, and the creation of economic blocs. For example, control over maritime routes such as the Suez and Panama Canals, and overland routes like the Silk Road, has provided and continues to provide various countries with strategic advantages in trade and military operations.

Today, the desire to control transport routes remains a major aspect of geopolitics, continuing to influence international relations and economic strategies. With the acceleration of globalization and the growth of international trade in the 21st century, transport routes in Eurasia have become important elements of the global transport network. The expansion of economic ties between states that are simultaneously major global markets, such as China, India, Russia, and the European Union, required the creation of efficient transport corridors to speed up the delivery of goods and reduce costs.

North-South, East-West, and Others

Back in 2000, Russia, Iran, India, and several other countries initiated the "North-South" project, linking Northern Europe with India. Subsequently, more than a dozen countries located along or near the route joined the project. However, for two decades, there was relatively little interest in it, as maritime transport was much cheaper and seemed economically attractive.

The situation began to change after the coronavirus pandemic. The sharp recovery of global trade, economic growth in Asia, Europe, and North America led to increased demand for maritime container transport, which in turn led to a rise in freight rates. This was also facilitated by a shortage of container ships and port capacities due to supply chain disruptions, port delays due to labour shortages and logistical problems, rising fuel costs, and other operating expenses of shipping companies.

Moreover, trade wars and sanctions, such as those between the US and China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and issues in the Middle East, particularly the Red Sea shipping crisis, also affected routes and the cost of maritime transport. As a result, the attractiveness of routes within the Eurasian continent has significantly increased.

This applies not only to the North-South corridor but also to the East-West routes and the integrated projects of the Middle Corridor, its component - the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, and others. All of these are being implemented according to China's "One Belt, One Road" strategy, launched in 2014.

As is known, the "North-South" and "Belt and Road" projects are integrated into current geopolitical processes within the vast geography of the world's largest continent. Both routes intersect in the Caspian region, which determines its geostrategic significance.

Azerbaijan is one of the main beneficiaries of both routes, enhancing its geopolitical capitalization both in its region and on a larger Eurasian scale. This circumstance also intensifies competition among leading players not only for communications but also for influence over individual countries. Control over large-scale transport projects and routes essentially becomes an indicator of influence on world politics. Accordingly, influence on regional transport projects becomes an indicator of impact on regional politics.

A Different Project

While the North-South project is largely associated with Russia and the East-West with China, it turns out that for a long time, the West lagged behind these two power centers in terms of influence in Eurasia, as it lacked any significant transport project in this geography. All strategic routes that NATO and the US could control primarily ran and still run not within the continent but around its periphery and by sea.

To fill this gap, in September 2023, US President Joe Biden announced after the G20 summit in New Delhi that the US, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, Jordan, and India had completed work on a historic agreement for a new economic corridor linking India, the Middle East, and Europe. Some observers, for simplicity, also refer to this project as the "South-West Corridor."

The project involves investments in maritime and rail transport, the implementation of clean energy supplies, and the laying of internet cables connecting South Asia and the Middle East with Europe. Washington declared its intention to invest a substantial $500 billion in this corridor. Speaking about the significance of the initiative, Biden stated, "The world stands at a turning point in history. The decisions we make today will affect the course of our future – all of our future – for decades to come."

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which began almost a month after the announcement of this project, seriously disrupted the plans of its initiators. In this regard, the US might consider adjusting this route or temporarily focusing on another relevant transport corridor.

At least recently, in the context of developing relations with the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Washington finds the Trans-Caspian Corridor project attractive, which is seen as an alternative to the North-South and East-West corridors.

It is important not to confuse the Trans-Caspian Corridor with the Trans-Caspian Route. The former is conceived as a concept involving all the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, while the latter, which is already being implemented, involves specific states that have signed relevant cooperation agreements. Notably, Armenia is also participating in the Trans-Caspian Corridor. This is welcomed not only by the US but also by the European Union, which has included this corridor in its Global Gateway concept. The EU has promised to allocate nearly 20 billion euros for it.

Western countries, strengthening their influence on Yerevan, are trying to integrate it into regional transport projects in such a way that Armenia's participation in them exerts at least indirect influence on their implementation. Whether the West's efforts to create alternative transport routes in the region will lead to the integration of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor with the South-West communication system remains to be seen.

As of today, we can only talk about the development of a transport web that covers the geography of Central and Southern Eurasia and is aimed at realizing the interests of Western countries.

The Big Role of Small Transport Projects

The North-South, East-West, and South-West routes, lobbied by major geopolitical players and implemented in various ways, create a competitive environment that significantly influences transport flows within Eurasia.

At the same time, there are projects initiated by not-so-large but no less influential players in their regions. One such example is the "Development Road," initiated by Turkey and Iraq, aiming to connect the Persian Gulf with the Mediterranean Sea via a continuous railway link, and further with Europe. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have also shown interest in participating in it.

The project, announced back in 2022, encompasses 1,200 km of rail and road networks. Its estimated cost is $17 billion. Once completed, it is expected to generate up to $4 billion in annual revenue and create over 100,000 jobs.

In 2012, the idea of a transport link between Afghanistan and Europe, known as the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, was conceived. The initiative was spearheaded by Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. On December 13, 2018, a ceremony was held in Herat province, western Afghanistan, to mark the opening of the Lapis Lazuli Corridor. On the same day, the first test run was conducted with nine heavy trucks travelling from Afghanistan to Turkey along the designated route. However, following the change of government in Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban, the project was halted. Recently, with the Taliban's increasing engagement with the outside world, particularly with neighbouring countries, and the development of contacts with Tashkent and Baku, the project may see a revival.

Interestingly, in December 2019, Uzbekistan initiated another railway project - the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan corridor. In June 2024, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed an agreement to begin its implementation. It is expected to become part of the Middle Corridor and will branch into two routes. One will lead to the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi, continuing to Alat on the opposite shore of the Caspian Sea, while the other will head towards Iran.

In China, this project is seen as part of the One Belt, One Road initiative. In the region, it is considered part of the Middle Corridor, which has a broader interpretation. Either way, it fits well into the East-West route system, where China plays a leading role.

Among the significant regional transport initiatives that have gained wide geopolitical resonance, the Zangezur transport corridor stands out. This project aims to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, through Armenian territory. It fits well into the North-South and East-West route systems, which are crucial for the region's economic integration and development.

Currently, the project is being discussed in the context of peace agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan and includes the construction of a railway and a highway, enhancing its geo-economic significance. However, due to Armenia's obstructive stance, the project remains stalled on the Armenian section. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has started an alternative route through Iran, ensuring its relevance for the future.

The importance of "small" transport projects in the broader geopolitical landscape is significant, as they form the basis for major transport corridors. This factor enhances the role and significance of smaller players on the global political stage, as demonstrated by Azerbaijan.