TIME'S TICKING AWAY

In 1969, a football match precipitated a brief but intense armed conflict between El Salvador and Honduras. It must be acknowledged that relations between the two states were already at a critical point. The earthquake in Nicaragua, or rather the misappropriation of aid intended for its victims, marked the end of the Somoza clan dictatorship. Similarly, Hurricane Katrina and the inadequate response from US federal authorities resulted in George Bush Jr. losing his re-election bid. The earthquake in Greece and the subsequent humanitarian assistance provided by Türkiye played a pivotal role in reducing tensions between Athens and Ankara to such an extent that the concept of 'seismic diplomacy' emerged as a topic of global discussion. 

In the South Caucasus, the anniversary arms exhibition ADEX 24, held in the Azerbaijani capital in late September, could represent a pivotal moment in the process of normalising relations between Baku and Yerevan. 

Forging Weapons 

It may be beneficial to commence the discussion of this exhibition with events that transpired almost two decades ago. In 2005, President Ilham Aliyev established the Ministry of Defence Industry of Azerbaijan by decree. At that time, this decision perplexed many observers. The military-industrial sector is a high-tech industry, and it was initially perceived as implausible that Azerbaijan, at the beginning of the 2000s, could develop its own military industry. Some commentators hastened to assert that the country was lacking in the requisite capabilities to develop its own defence industry. 

It would be enlightening to ascertain the opinions of those who made these predictions in light of the extensive range of products showcased by Azerbaijan's defence manufacturers. It is noteworthy that both state-owned enterprises under the Ministry of Defence Industry and private firms participated in the exhibition. Furthermore, a comprehensive assortment of exhibits was presented, encompassing ammunition, small arms, laser systems, examples of modernised Soviet-era armoured vehicles, and a plethora of additional items.

In their commentary, specialists recalled the words of President Ilham Aliyev. In his inaugural address to the newly constituted Azerbaijani Parliament, Aliyev observed that "It is imperative that we expedite the advancement of the domestic military-industrial complex." Significant financial resources have been allocated for this purpose in the current fiscal year, with further allocations planned for the forthcoming year. Significant modernisation initiatives are currently being implemented across all military production facilities. New equipment, machinery, weapons and ammunition are being manufactured. The establishment of new production sites in collaboration with multiple foreign partners has already reached the stage of practical implementation. It seems probable that in the next few years the military-industrial complex will expand in terms of both product range and quality. The head of state expressed confidence that the establishment of a domestic military-industrial complex is an indication of a country's strength and growth. The official position of the government of Baku is to reduce as much as possible the level of dependence on external suppliers. 

Concurrently, Ilham Aliyev observed that "presently, the foremost nations in the global arms market are preoccupied with their own affairs. They are more focused on meeting their internal needs. Consequently, a natural deficit exists in the global arms market. It would be prudent to consider this factor as well. Nevertheless, this industry will facilitate the expansion of the geographical scope of our military-technical product exports. Currently, Azerbaijan exports military-industrial complex products to dozens of countries, with this geographical reach expanding annually. This constitutes an integral aspect of our negotiations with numerous countries, including those pertaining to economic and investment matters. In the near future, it is anticipated that Azerbaijan will emerge as a significant player in the global arms market, with the potential to become a prominent force in this domain." 

The ADEX exhibition provides a means of evaluating the actual success of Azerbaijan's military-industrial complex. This is particularly pertinent in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has diverted the primary production capacities of Russia and Western nations towards meeting the urgent demand for weapons, particularly ammunition. 

Spooky Guns 

It was foreseeable that the ADEX exhibition would be subjected to rigorous scrutiny in Armenia. Despite previous assertions by Yerevan that the development of a military-industrial complex in Azerbaijan was not feasible, there is now a discernible sense of unease and apprehension, despite attempts to conceal it. Despite their best efforts, officials have thus far been unable to maintain silence on the matter. However, social media channels have revealed a great deal of intense emotion. Those with a pro-Western stance have informed the public that: "Armenia's CSTO ally Kazakhstan will engage in collaborative military endeavours with Armenia's adversary Azerbaijan." 

Azerbaijani military personnel have participated in joint exercises with their counterparts from Central Asian nations on numerous occasions. Until recently, these newly independent states had relied solely on Russian support in addressing their security concerns. However, the war in Ukraine is prompting a shift in focus and orientation. It is possible that Russia will continue to adopt an indifferent stance towards the Muslim population of the former USSR. In the meantime, it is evident that security concerns cannot be indefinitely postponed. Furthermore, Azerbaijan is one of the few countries in the former Soviet Union that has successfully developed a fully operational military force, which has been demonstrated in actual combat, notably in the liberation of Garabagh. 

Other Telegram channels in Armenia, which may be considered to espouse a pro-Russian stance, highlight different concerns. One of the items on display, the Guardian 30 artillery gun, which was jointly produced by Azerbaijan and Spain, prompted concerns among the participants. It is observed that European Union countries are extending their military cooperation with Azerbaijan. It is a source of concern for experts in Yerevan that Azerbaijan has previously concluded a significant number of arms deals with EU nations, including Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, and others. Moreover, European officials have stated that they will not sell lethal weapons to Armenia. The only exception is France, which, according to reports from French media sources, has elected to provide decommissioned equipment. In this context, it is important to mention the existence of several agreements between EU countries and Baku regarding the joint production of weapons. In this instance, the restrictions imposed by the EU on the export of military products are not particularly stringent. 

However, this is not the most concerning development for Yerevan strategists. Firstly, efforts to influence the European Union's stance on Azerbaijan have been unsuccessful. It has become evident that not all parties are willing to align themselves with Paris's stance on the matter, a fact that underplays the situation significantly. Secondly, the exhibition demonstrates the true extent of Azerbaijan's combat capabilities, which have already been experienced by the Armenian army on two occasions. 

The dissemination of such information, categorised as "militaria", has prompted Yerevan strategists to undertake a reassessment of their plans for retribution. The expectation that the second Garabagh war would result in the complete exhaustion of Azerbaijan's resources has not been realised. The military budget of Azerbaijan is approximately twice that of Armenia. It actively procures military equipment from foreign suppliers, as evidenced by its participation in the ADEX. A stable economy and the capacity to pay cash for weapons represent significant advantages. It is of particular significance that collaboration in the production of armaments occurs with countries that are considered to be allies. This suggests that the joint Azerbaijani-Spanish cannon has already undermined pro-Western aspirations within the Armenian establishment. 

There Will Be No Revenge But Accountability 

Azerbaijan is intensifying its diplomatic pressure on Armenia. Moreover, the State Commission for Prisoners of War, Hostages and Missing Citizens, in collaboration with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), convened an international conference in Baku entitled "Solving the Problem of Missing Persons: The Right of Families to the Truth". The participants were taken to Garabagh and shown recently discovered mass grave sites of Azerbaijani civilian victims from the conflict. It is estimated that approximately 4,000 citizens from our country are still considered missing, with minimal prospects of their survival. Nevertheless, it is imperative that the families of the missing receive the basic human right of a dignified burial for their loved ones. Concurrently, substantial evidence indicates that individuals held captive by Armenians were subjected to extreme brutality, including torture and murder. 

This situation is also a source of considerable concern for the government of Yerevan. Baku is already questioning Armenia's accountability for war crimes committed during conflicts, as evidenced by statements from Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General. Armenia has previously had the opportunity to observe that when Baku makes promises, it is generally able to fulfil them. 

At this juncture, discussions of accountability do not pertain to events in Eastern Anatolia that occurred over a century ago. The First Garabagh War occurred three decades ago, while the second took place four years ago. The majority of individuals accused of crimes against humanity and war crimes are still alive and, as a result, legally capable of being prosecuted. 

It is widely held that the "Garabagh clan" bears significant responsibility for war crimes committed during the First Garabagh War. However, it must also be acknowledged that at that time, power was held by the Armenian National Movement (ANM), with Levon Ter-Petrosyan serving as president. Additionally, Nikol Pashinyan originated from this political party. It can be reasonably concluded that the current authorities in Armenia bear direct responsibility for the aforementioned events. This extends beyond the initiation of acts of conquest to also include the deliberate shelling of civilian neighbourhoods in Azerbaijani cities, including Ganja, Terter, Barda, Gabala, and others. In addition to these actions, there have been attempts to shoot down Azerbaijani civilian aircraft in mid-flight and to destroy the Mingachevir hydroelectric dam. 

Therefore, Yerevan has substantial cause for concern.