THE FIASCO OF THE ARAB SPRING

The situation in the Middle East has been at the focus of international attention for many decades. The region has garnered particular interest in recent years due to the complex transformations taking place within its borders. Observers believe that these changes may alter the landscape of this vast territory, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea in the west to the Indian Ocean in the east, and from the Black Sea and Caspian Sea in the north to the Gulf of Aden in the south.

It All Started in Tunisia

Presidential election in Tunisia brought the incumbent head of state, 66-year-old Qais Said, to his second five-year term in office. While Said's supporters praise his efforts to pull Tunisia out of chaos and instability, critics argue that he is a true autocrat following in the footsteps of dictator Ben Ali. One of the primary arguments supporting this claim is the fact that Said’s main opponent is currently imprisoned, and he himself acts rather harshly against his detractors.

Voter turnout was notably low, as many citizens considered the elections an empty formality. Data from the Tunisian Central Election Commission illustrates this point, showing that only 28.8 percent of eligible voters—around 2.8 million out of 9.7 million citizens—participated. Said won an overwhelming 90.69 percent of the votes.

This situation is particularly significant because Tunisia was the birthplace of unrest that swept across the entire Arab world beginning in 2010. These events led to the so-called Arab Spring, which sparked protest movements in neighbouring countries, resulting in regime changes. As is well known, Western countries, particularly the United States, were a major source of external support for these movements.

In 2017, former CIA Director John Brennan referred to the expectations held by US President Barack Obama and his administration regarding the Arab Spring as a miscalculation. The primary mistake was Washington’s failure to maintain long-standing partnerships and alliances in the region over the years. Believing that these protest movements would lead to a redrawing of the political map of the Greater Middle East, the White House assumed that new regional leaders would be more loyal than their predecessors, even if they were capable but obstinate in their dealings. However, it turned out to be quite the opposite.

In Tunisia and Egypt, the former elite returned to power. In Libya and Yemen, regime changes resulted in the de facto collapse of these states and prolonged civil wars that continue to this day. In Syria, although the regime has survived, civil war persists, and the country remains fragmented.

On the Importance of Learning from Lessons

The Persian monarchies have come to realize that the US is not a reliable partner and should not be depended upon during crises. Washington may readily exchange "old friends" for "new ones" if doing so aligns with its vision for strengthening its influence in the region.

As early as August 7, 2003—just months after the active phase of the Iraq war had ended—Condoleezza Rice, then National Security Advisor under President George W. Bush, articulated her vision for the future of the Middle East in a Washington Post op-ed titled "Transforming the Middle East." In her introduction, Rice stated: "Shortly after World War II, the United States committed itself to long-term transformation in Europe following its suffering, destruction, and sacrifice—including hundreds of thousands of American soldiers' lives lost in battle. Our politicians chose to work toward creating a Europe in which a new war would be unthinkable. We and our European partners chose democracy and prosperity, and together we succeeded. Today, however, we must commit to transforming another part of the world: the Middle East. The GDP of this region, encompassing 22 nations and a population exceeding 300 million, is less than that of Spain's 40 million citizens. This illustrates what leading Arab intellectuals refer to as a political and economic deficit of freedom. This helplessness fosters an ideology of hate that encourages individuals to abandon their education, careers, and families to undermine themselves while taking as many innocent lives as possible."

Around this same period, the term Greater Middle East entered the political discourse as it reflected new US geopolitical doctrines.

The so-called Arab Spring was seen as the culmination of a global experiment where the US served not only as an observer but also as an active facilitator intervening in regional transformations—recall Washington's military involvement in civil wars in Libya and Syria.

A Failed Experiment

The failure of the Arab Spring—resulting in regimes hostile to Washington in several countries—has created a fundamentally new situation for the United States in the Middle East, where even its traditional partners are compelled to adjust their strategies based on this altered environment.

Concerns that Washington might abandon them amidst critical domestic political turmoil—or worse yet, become a factor in such an escalation—have prompted US allies to seek more reliable external partners. This shift has made China’s unprecedented rise in recent years a significant concern for the United States.

Beijing appears to be learning from American diplomatic missteps by seizing every opportunity to position itself as a regional mediator—often stepping into areas where Washington has little influence. A prime example is Beijing's role in facilitating normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The last significant achievement of American diplomacy in the region—the Abraham Accords—was negotiated during Donald Trump’s presidency. These agreements aimed at integrating Israel into Middle Eastern politics were regarded as a turning point in regional history.

In July 2022, under President Joe Biden’s administration, the Indo-Aramaic Alliance was formed—including India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States—with plans to expand to include Egypt and Saudi Arabia "to create a favourable balance of power supporting peace and security in West Asia."

To enhance connectivity within this alliance, Biden unveiled the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor project during a G20 summit in September 2023. This initiative is designed to integrate railway lines and sea routes from India to Europe via the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.

Israel's Reformatting The Region

However, these plans were disrupted by Hamas’s war with Israel beginning on October 7, 2023. Subsequent events have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape and can also be viewed as part of an ongoing process to reshape regional politics under new circumstances.

Hamas’s conflict with Israel tested regional countries' willingness to engage actively in redrawing spheres of influence; ultimately revealing their lack of readiness for confrontation with Israel—an observation that also applies to Iran.

Only escalated tensions initiated by Israel have begun drawing Tehran and its proxy forces into open conflict with the Jewish state—albeit reluctantly supported by the US, which is keen on retaining its last natural ally in the Middle East.

It seems that Israel has taken on the role of initiator regarding efforts to reformat the Middle East; attempting to create more favourable conditions for its existence without Hamas, Hezbollah, or ideally Iran—whose actions threaten Israeli security. It appears that while Israel does not aim for Iran’s outright destruction as a state, it does seek to neutralize Tehran’s capacity to pose a threat—especially concerning its proxy forces and nuclear capabilities.

Israel has effectively capitalized on what appears to be a weak American administration lacking a clear strategy for addressing escalating conflicts—forcing Washington into compliance with its own terms.

Experts suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu's war objectives have shifted from merely pushing Hezbollah away from Israel's northern border with Lebanon—enabling around 60,000 displaced Israelis from northern areas to return home—to now focusing on pushing Hezbollah northward beyond the Litani River as per UN Resolution 1701 and undermining its capabilities entirely so it cannot launch attacks against Israel again.

The US has already made clear that it no longer insists on a ceasefire with Hezbollah; speculations arise suggesting tacit approval for Lebanese operations aimed at diminishing Iran's most significant regional proxy—even as Lebanon’s interim government called for an immediate halt to hostilities. Radical factions within Israel's government seem to be responding decisively to this signal by escalating their actions to maximise advantage.

Rising Stakes

Israel: Ministers of Chaos is a new documentary filmed aired by French TV channel Arte and features an interview with Israel's far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich. In discussing his vision for a new regional map, he spoke about "Greater Israel" and its prospective borders. According to Smotrich, Israel will expand "piece by piece," ultimately encompassing all Palestinian territories along with Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.

It remains uncertain whether this plan represents an Israeli strategy already being implemented or merely reflects opinions from within Israel's most radical factions.

On September 27 in New York, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian cautioned that if tensions continue escalating without resolution, Iran may disintegrate. He stated: "If some catastrophic event occurs within our country, Azerbaijan could emerge as an independent state; Kurdistan could become another; Khuzestan could become another; Baluchistan could become another—essentially leaving Iran non-existent amidst chaos." It remains ambiguous whether he was referencing specific scenarios prepared for Tehran or merely articulating his assumptions regarding potential negative political dynamics within Iran.

One thing seems more evident: the process of reformatting the Middle East continues; various proposed alternatives only serve to underscore both its depth and severity as an ongoing challenge.