AMBIGUOUS SPLIT

The presidential elections and the referendum on EU accession held in Moldova marked yet another significant event in the post-Soviet region, influencing the future of a particular country and the geopolitical configuration of the continent. While the results of the Moldovan vote indicate a victory for supporters of the European path, it is evident that this victory is not unconditional or irreversible. 

Two Tours with Nuances

On October 20, coinciding with the first round of the presidential election, a referendum on Moldova's accession to the EU also took place. Voters were presented with a series of questions regarding the future of Moldova's integration into the European Union (EU), as outlined in the preamble to the Moldovan Constitution. Additionally, they were asked to express their views on the prospect of Moldova's accession to fundamental EU treaties, contingent upon the support of a parliamentary majority.

In the initial round of voting, 51 percent of eligible voters participated, with 50.5 percent of these individuals expressing approval for Moldova's integration into the EU. Nevertheless, 49.5 percent of those who voted opposed this, indicating a division within Moldovan society regarding the issue of European integration. This evident division was also reflected in the voting for the election of the head of state.

During the tenure of incumbent President Maia Sandu, who has governed Moldova since 2020, the country has submitted an application for EU membership and has been granted candidate status. Sandu and her ruling Action and Solidarity (PAS) party adhere to a distinctly pro-Western foreign policy, as evidenced by their stance on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. From its inception, Sandu has unequivocally condemned Moscow and aligned with Kiev.

Sandu's principal opponent in the election was former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo, who was nominated for the presidency by the opposition Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM). Additionally, Stoianoglo supports EU integration, characterizing it as "Moldova's national idea," yet concurrently advocates for the cultivation of close ties with Russia. This prompted ardent Western supporters to disseminate claims of his "pro-Russianism" throughout the electoral campaign.

In the initial phase of the presidential election, Sandu amassed 42.4 percent of the votes, while Stoianoglo garnered 25.9 percent. The second round of the election was marked by the possibility of Stoianoglo garnering support from voters who had initially favoured other opposition candidates. In addition to the nominees from PAS and PSRM, nine other candidates were vying for the presidency. Notably, four of these candidates received less than one percent of the votes in the first round. Consequently, the support of Renato Usatii, leader of Our Party, who advocates for Moldova's non-alignment with any integration structures, was deemed crucial in determining the election's outcome.

Subsequent to the conclusion of the initial voting phase, Usatii was positioned in third place with a voter support tally of 14 percent. In the period preceding the second round of voting, Maia Sandu exhorted his supporters to unite efforts and to prevent former leaders from returning to power. However, Usatii, who had previously played a decisive role in 2016 and 2020 by aiding Igor Dodon (now PSRM leader) and Maia Sandu in winning their respective presidential races, declared that he would not endorse anyone this time, suggesting that his supporters make their own choice for head of state.

The results of the second round, held on November 3, demonstrated that Sandu performed well when running as an independent candidate. In this round, voter turnout reached 54 percent, indicating that approximately 1.6 million individuals participated in the electoral process. According to the data released by the Moldova Central Electoral Commission (CEC), the incumbent garnered 55.3 percent of the vote, while Stoianoglo obtained 44.7 percent. In the wake of her electoral triumph, Sandu vowed to serve as a president for all, extending a pledge to those who had cast their ballots for Stoianoglo.

Winning and Losing Factors

The victory of Maia Sandu has been attributed by experts to a number of factors, including her acknowledgment following the conclusion of the initial round of certain deficiencies in state activities and her pledge to implement personnel changes in the government before the end of the year. Indeed, her fluctuating approval ratings were coupled with criticism directed at various heads of state agencies believed responsible for a number of issues, including rampant corruption, deficiencies in the judicial and legal systems, and failures in socio-economic policy.

These issues are particularly problematic in light of the negative consequences of the devastating war in neighbouring Ukraine, which has resulted in a significant influx of Ukrainian refugees and notable increases in the cost of utilities, medicines, and energy in Moldova. Sandu seems to have persuaded at least a segment of disillusioned electors that she is capable of addressing the urgent concerns that are contributing to her government's declining approval ratings in the near future.

Additionally, calls from PAS-affiliated circles urging voters "not to support Stoianoglo because he is Gagauz" may have influenced public perceptions. Nevertheless, the ruling party itself has denounced such xenophobic statements, yet their propagation among specific segments of society could potentially influence Stoianoglo's reputation.

Concurrently, the mobilization of pro-Western forces within Moldova constituted a pivotal factor in Maia Sandu's electoral success. This factor, which pertains to Moldova's geopolitical destiny, was articulated through Sandu's appeal, which framed the elections as a pivotal event for the country. The question thus arises as to whether Moldova will pursue Euro-Atlantic integration or remain within Russia's sphere of influence. The dilemma presented by the Sandu government resonated with Moldovans who prioritized European integration, prompting them to set aside doubts regarding socio-economic conditions in favour of rejecting "pro-Russian" Stoianoglo.

It seems reasonable to suggest that the results of the recent parliamentary elections in Georgia also had an impact on European-oriented Moldovan voters. The triumph of a political entity that does not espouse radically pro-Western stances—and is therefore not backed by either the USA or the EU—has led to the establishment of significant obstacles against Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. In light of this, Moldova is at risk of facing a similar threat. In order to counter this, the authorities have sought to unite pro-Western voters by identifying vote-buying as a primary danger. This is said to have been orchestrated by Ilan Shor, a Moscow-based oligarch notorious for opposing Chisinau's European integration agenda. Moldovan Prosecutor General Ion Munteanu has stated that he has uncovered a scheme devised by Shor, which targeted impoverished citizens through the offering of low-cost food and financial incentives for participation in anti-government protests, while also encouraging them to vote for a particular candidate.

In an interview with the BBC, Shor acknowledged that he had provided financial support to various political campaigns that advocated a pro-Eurasian stance for Moldova. However, he asserted that he had never remunerated individuals for participating in protests or voting during elections. He urged skepticism towards the Moldovan authorities, whom he accused of politically persecuting him. Nevertheless, Shor—a figure widely regarded in Moldova as "the hand of Moscow," who was sentenced in absentia in April 2023 to 15 years' imprisonment related to a $1 billion embezzlement case within Moldova's banking system—openly encouraged his compatriots to vote against Sandu in the election's second round, ultimately working to her advantage. It is plausible that a significant number of undecided voters were motivated to support her as a form of protest against Shor and his anti-government propaganda.

With regard to the mobilization of pro-Western voters, which proved instrumental in facilitating Sandu's victory, the votes cast by Moldovans residing in Europe were of paramount importance. This was evident during her initial presidential campaign in 2020, when votes cast by the diaspora secured her triumph over then-incumbent President Igor Dodon.

The considerable electoral influence wielded by Moldovan expatriates is underscored by the fact that over 300,000 individuals, representing more than 20% of the total electorate, reside abroad and participated in this presidential election. This factor also influenced the results of the referendum held concurrently with the first-round presidential vote. The pro-European outcome was largely determined by votes from polling stations established within EU countries.

A similar pattern was observed in the current election cycle, with Sandu gaining significant support as votes from European polling stations were counted. Following the tallying of 90 percent of protocols, Stoianoglo had secured the majority with 50.81 percent of the votes. However, the inclusion of votes from numerous Moldovans living abroad ultimately resulted in a shift in the electoral outcome in favour of Sandu.

Sandu's opponents expressed discontent with the manner in which the Moldovan authorities facilitated convenient voting conditions for citizens residing in European countries while only permitting two polling stations to open in Russia—both located in Moscow—despite the fact that nearly half a million Moldovan citizens live in various regions of Russia. This situation provided an opportunity for representatives of the Kremlin to express their discontent regarding the results of the elections in Moldova. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the presidential election in Moldova could not be considered "fair or democratic." He observed that hundreds of thousands of Moldovan citizens residing in Russia were deprived of the opportunity to vote in comparison to those living within European nations.

If one excludes the results from the foreign polling stations, it can be seen that Stoianoglo would have won the Moldovan presidential election with 51.2 percent of the votes compared to Sandu's 48.8 percent of the votes cast domestically. However, it is notable that she garnered support from 82 percent of overseas voters. In light of these figures, the PSRM has stated its refusal to recognize the voting at foreign polling stations, which enabled Sandu's declaration as the winner. The party has derisively referred to Sandu as "the president of the diaspora."

Notably, Our Party expressed similar sentiments regarding these developments, stating that "Sandu wins elections thanks to voting at polling stations abroad," and that she is "not Moldova's president; she is 'the president of the diaspora.'" On election night, following the second round of voting, Dimitri Ciubasenco, the deputy leader under Renato Usatii, stated that this is how she would henceforth be referred to. This serves to further highlight the existing rift within Moldovan society.

What Is The Future Trajectory of Moldova?

It seems likely that the future of Moldova's political system will remain uncertain for the foreseeable future. The upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for 2025, are likely to represent another significant milestone in this process. The ruling party will prioritize efforts to maintain its parliamentary majority, as any erosion could jeopardize Maia Sandu's already tenuous position and her ability to seek further electoral success.

The opposition PSRM appears to be positioned to focus on enhancing its party capabilities while preparing for renewed electoral competition. In other words, despite their refusal to acknowledge Sandu's victory, the Socialists are evidently not inclined toward street protests or legal challenges against presidential election outcomes. This is evidenced further by Alexandru Stoianoglo proclaiming hopes for overcoming hatred and division. "It is imperative that our country's future be devoid of senseless conflicts. Instead, we must strive for unity and mutual respect. Let us utilize the energy of this moment to construct a peaceful and prosperous Moldova," Stoianoglo stated.

It is also possible that following these presidential elections, Stoianoglo's path may diverge from that of PSRM. Throughout his campaign, he frequently emphasized his non-partisanship. It is therefore plausible that he might now prefer to establish an independent political entity, especially given the ongoing leadership aspirations of ex-president Igor Dodon at the helm of PSRM.

Nevertheless, the aforementioned prospects pertaining to individual politicians and political factions within Moldova are overshadowed by concerns surrounding the nation's future trajectory. The forthcoming years promise pivotal moments that will be essential for determining Moldova's geopolitical trajectory amidst ongoing confrontations between Western influences and Russia. These developments are closely intertwined with those occurring within Transnistria and Gagauzia, regions that are largely or partially under Russian control and which represent existential threats to Moldova's sovereignty and territorial integrity.