BAKU'S WATER DIPLOMACY

In recent years, alongside various aspects of safety, environmental issues have emerged as a significant concern. The concept of "environmental security" has undergone several phases of development. The last few decades have marked a crucial period in the conceptualization of environmental security, as new, non-traditional threats have emerged, necessitating responses and adaptations.

This resurgence of interest in environmental issues is marked by a reappraisal of environmental security in the context of international relations, the formulation of comprehensive environmental programs, and the institutionalization of "green" movements. Concurrently, the concept of water security has emerged as a central issue.

Waters of Samur

The Republic of Azerbaijan is situated in an arid zone, where there has been a notable decline in drinking water reserves, and the country's water security is therefore of great concern.

The country's water security is particularly dependent on the waters of the Samur, which are used for irrigation and drinking water. Furthermore, the concurrent rise in average annual temperatures is accompanied by a reduction in soil moisture, which in turn leads to salinization and eventual desertification. The country is currently confronted with three significant environmental threats: the reduction of drinking water in transit rivers, desertification in the Kura-Araz lowlands, and the shoaling of the Caspian Sea. Two of these threats—water usage from transit rivers and the shoaling of the Caspian Sea—are regional challenges that require collaboration with neighbouring  countries.

Approximately 70% of Azerbaijan's surface water resources originate from neighbouring countries through transboundary water flows, underscoring the vital necessity of cooperation with these countries in addressing the water supply issue. In 2023, a twofold reduction in the filling capacity of the Samur River, which serves as the border river between Azerbaijan and Russia, along with the depletion of drinking water reserves in the Takhtakorpu reservoir to only 50 million cubic meters, prompted the Azerbaijani government to consider implementing a water conservation regime.

The utilization of the Samur River's water resources is subject to the terms of a specific agreement between Azerbaijan and Russia. The joint Azerbaijani-Russian commission on the allocation of water resources for this transboundary river convenes on a regular basis. In December 2023, the first joint expedition of Russian and Azerbaijani scientists was scheduled to commence, with the objective of studying the Samur River. The objective of this expedition is to develop project proposals for the future utilisation of water resources in the context of a reduction in riverine supplies. It is noteworthy that no comprehensive scientific expeditions have previously been conducted within the Samur River basin. The joint research will be conducted not only in Azerbaijan but also in Russia, specifically in the Dagestan region.

The principal objectives of the joint Azerbaijani-Russian projects pertaining to the Samur River basin's ecosystem are the preservation of aquatic ecosystems and the enhancement of biodiversity. This will be achieved through the establishment of forest plantations, the planting of vegetation, the reinforcement of coastal protection zones, and the combating of erosion and desertification. The overarching objective of these initiatives is to enhance the resilience of the basin against the effects of climate change while promoting the conservation of water resources.

In terms of the significance of the Samur River for Azerbaijan, it is notable that the Samur-Absheron Canal serves as the primary irrigation source for agricultural lands in the northeastern region of the country, encompassing an area of up to 100,000 hectares. Additionally, the canal is a principal water source for the Jeyranbatan reservoir. The canal serves as a primary source of drinking water for Baku and the surrounding agglomeration, meeting approximately 60% of the city's and the agglomeration's combined drinking water needs.

It is crucial to acknowledge that this is not the sole instance of regulating transboundary river water resources in the region.

Challenges Posed by Kura and Araz Rivers

Azerbaijan has previously engaged in collaborative endeavours with Iran to harness the potential of the Araz River. A memorandum of understanding has been signed between the two countries, resulting in the establishment of hydroelectric projects at Khudaferin and Giz Galasi on the river. These projects serve two purposes: they regulate the flow of the Araz River and facilitate the construction of hydroelectric power plants, thereby utilizing the river's energy resources.

In total, once all water canals are fully operational, the utilization of the Araz River's water resources will facilitate irrigation across an estimated 270,000 hectares of land in liberated territories. However, a significant challenge arises from upstream Armenia's systematic pollution of the Araz with hazardous industrial waste, which has a detrimental impact on the quality of life along the coast.

For example, water samples collected from Okhchuchai, one of the Araz River's primary tributaries originating in Armenia, demonstrated elevated concentrations of heavy metals, including copper, molybdenum, manganese, iron, zinc, and chromium. Notwithstanding Armenia's obligations as set forth in the Helsinki Rules of 1966 and the Berlin Rules of 2004 regarding the utilization of international river water, it persistently fails to fulfil these responsibilities, thereby disregarding UN General Assembly and PACE resolutions pertaining to transboundary water basins, in addition to other international documents.

As a result, environmental concerns play a significant role in the ongoing conflict between Baku and Yerevan. The resolution of these tensions could have a significant impact on the political climate between the two nations.

Furthermore, challenges persist with regard to interactions with Georgia. Nevertheless, the poor quality of water in the Kura River does not have a detrimental impact on the bilateral relationship between the two countries, despite the occasional mention of this issue during bilateral negotiations.

Solutions to Drinking Water Shortages

In recent times, discussions have arisen concerning the necessity of maintaining sufficient filling levels for the Kura and Araz within the context of Azerbaijani-Turkish relations. Türkiye is engaged in the construction of reservoirs in upstream areas, which may potentially result in a reduction of water volumes in these major South Caucasus rivers. In December 2023, this issue was addressed during a meeting between Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov and Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz. It was agreed that Ankara would take Baku's interests into account when implementing its plans.

Azerbaijan is projected to experience reductions in water resources by 2050, ranking 59th among 164 countries. The country is classified as having a medium-high risk level (20-40%). As outlined in Azerbaijan's National Report to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, projections indicate a 5-10% reduction in national water resources (including transboundary ones) by 2040, with a further decline of 10-15% anticipated by 2070. An alternative hypothesis suggests a reduction of 10–15% and 15–25%, respectively. It seems inevitable, therefore, that the practice of "water diplomacy" will become an increasingly prominent feature of international relations in the coming years.

The situation is further complicated by the failure of Armenia and Georgia to accede to the International Convention on Environmental Protection. Conversely, Azerbaijan is a signatory to 17 different international agreements pertaining to this field, including the Convention on the Protection of Transboundary Waters. This discrepancy significantly impedes institutional cooperation among South Caucasus states in resolving issues related to water availability.

From this perspective, it is of great importance to regain control over Azerbaijani territories previously occupied by Armenia, which contain approximately 25% of Azerbaijan's fresh water resources. This would considerably reduce the country's dependence on external sources for drinking water.

Saving the Caspian Sea

It is of equal importance to address the issue of shoaling in the Caspian Sea, which has resulted in significant challenges for all Caspian nations except Iran.

At the Caspian Five summit, held in Ashgabat in June 2022, President Ilham Aliyev put forth the proposal to establish a five-party group of experts tasked with elucidating the causal relationships at play. The subject was revisited during Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to Azerbaijan in August 2024, resulting in the decision to establish a bilateral expert commission. The deputy ministers for ecology and natural resources from Azerbaijan and Russia, Rauf Hajiyev and Sergei Anoprienko, respectively, were designated as co-chairmen of the working group.

In this collaborative framework, experts will prepare an activity plan that will focus on researching the causes behind changes in Caspian Sea levels and formulating short- and long-term forecasts and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the plan will include the monitoring of changes in water levels and the conducting of joint scientific research, in addition to other measures aimed at mitigating the negative impacts on coastal zones.

Concurrently, Azerbaijan is investigating the potential for seawater desalination. However, the construction of desalination plants along the Caspian Sea coastline could result in unintended consequences if the withdrawal of water from the sea is excessive. It is therefore recommended that this matter, along with other ecological aspects related to the Caspian Sea, should also be regulated at a pentagonal level in accordance with the stipulations set out in the Tehran Convention of 2003.

In summary, the security of water resources is of paramount importance in addressing environmental challenges. The use of water diplomacy represents an indispensable instrument for the attainment of this objective. This nascent phenomenon within the domain of contemporary diplomacy is poised to assume greater significance over time, particularly for nations situated within arid regions.

Recently, Azerbaijan has sought to integrate more closely into Central Asia's political agenda. Within this context, water diplomacy holds particular relevance; Central Asia's experiences in resolving water-related challenges may one day provide valuable insights for tackling similar issues within the South Caucasus.