LEADERLESS COUNTRY

There exists a cynical perspective within the international journalistic community: wars become mere background noise after the first week, and recent events have reinforced this observation. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Israel's systematic operations in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli military strikes against Hezbollah's infrastructure in Lebanon continue to unfold, gradually losing their novelty for audiences. Yet, the underlying tragedy of Lebanon persists—a country that has forgotten peace and stability since the 1970s, where external players eagerly seek to measure their strategic strengths.

From Middle Eastern Switzerland to Strange War

Israel has conducted military sweeps in Lebanon multiple times, emphasizing these actions as responses to regular shelling of its northern regions by Hezbollah fighters. Israel categorically refuses to tolerate Katyusha multiple rocket launcher system attacks on its cities.

Notably, these hostilities do not impact the Lebanese regular army. Israel targets Hezbollah rather than Lebanese armed forces—a striking contrast to the 1980s when Palestinian Liberation Organisation positions were the primary focus. The expression "strange war," originating in France during the early Second World War, aptly describes this situation.

As early as 1943, when Lebanon first gained independence, an agreement was established to "share influence" among local communities. Unlike neighbouring Arab countries, Lebanon is not strictly a Muslim nation. A significant portion of its population comprises Christian Arabs, predominantly Maronites, alongside Sunni and Shia Arabs, with a notable Armenian community. According to the 1943 agreement, Lebanon's presidential position would be held by a Christian Arab, the prime ministership by a Sunni Arab, and the parliamentary speakership by a Shiite. This power-sharing arrangement remained intact until the early 1970s.

During that period, Lebanon was dubbed the "Switzerland of the Middle East" and Beirut the "Paris of the East"—undeniably the region's capital of glamour and entertainment. With the Persian Gulf's oil boom, Lebanon also emerged as a financial centre, with Armenian capital playing a pivotal role.

This idyllic scenario collapsed in the early 1970s.

And Hell Followed With Them

The pivotal moment for Lebanon arrived in 1970, following Arab countries' defeat in the Six-Day War. Subsequently, the influence of those advocating terrorist warfare grew: if Israel could not be defeated through conventional combat, terror would be employed as an alternative strategy.

After the Six-Day War, Palestinian armed groups based in Jordan began conducting regular incursions into Israel. King Hussein of Jordan's patience reached its breaking point in September 1970. Militants from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine had seized four aircraft travelling to New York, landing them at Jordan's Dawson Airport. After several days of negotiations, passengers were released, and the planes were spectacularly destroyed—an eerily similar scenario to the events of September 11, 2001.

King Hussein recognized that if Palestinians initiated conflicts not just with Israel but also with the United States and European countries from Jordanian territory, his country would face severe consequences. Consequently, he ordered the disarmament of Palestinian troops. The Palestinians resisted, even discussing the king's potential removal. The ensuing clashes resulted in thousands of casualties, an event historically known as "Black September". Palestinians were compelled to leave Jordan, with a significant number relocating to Lebanon.

Their arrival in Lebanon precipitated the collapse of the established community influence distribution system. Local leaders initially demanded a "power redistribution" favouring Sunni Muslims, escalating inter-communal tensions into armed conflict. Palestinians possessed extensive weapon acquisition channels through black market trade. Palestinian camps effectively became a "state within a state", where Lebanese security forces held minimal authority. By 1975, Lebanon was engulfed in a civil war characterized by multi-factional warfare.

The "leadership factor" among Palestinian refugees was already evident during this period. Jordan possessed such leadership; Lebanon did not.

A Forgotten Tragedy

Unsurprisingly, Maronite Christian leaders viewed Palestinians as primarily responsible for Lebanon's tragedy and were prepared to ally with Israel to expel Palestinian troops. Interestingly, the Christian front in Lebanon was not unified—a highly influential Armenian community supported the Palestinians. Subsequently, the local Dashnaktsutyun cell would collaborate as a singular electoral bloc with the pro-Syrian party and Hezbollah.

The 1982 Israeli military operation "Peace to the Galilee", which forced Palestinian armed groups to leave Lebanon, transformed this seemingly distant aspiration into an achievable reality.

On August 23, 1982, Bachir Gemayel was elected President of Lebanon. Despite being only 35 years old, he was an uncontested Christian leader—a prominent "field commander" among Christian right-wing Phalangists who had successfully exercised civil authority in Christian enclaves. Crucially, even before formally assuming office, he initiated a highly successful campaign advocating for the withdrawal of all foreign troops—Syrian, Palestinian, and Israeli—from Lebanon. Many experts believed Gemayel was prepared to transform Lebanon into an Israel-friendly nation.

Tragically, Bachir Gemayel did not survive to assume the presidency. On September 14, 1982, Syrian security service agents bombed his party's Beirut headquarters, killing 27 people. Gemayel's identification occurred the following day. The proposed foreign troop withdrawal agreement remained unrealized. His assassination triggered another civil war phase. Historians suggest that the Christian Right Phalangists' massacre of Palestinian camps in Sabra and Shatila, Safra was a direct response to Gemayel's assassination. Although Palestinians seemingly departed, Lebanon systematically transitioned under undeclared Syrian control, with Iran establishing its proxy army, Hezbollah, in the southern region.

Cedar Revolution

Lebanon experienced another historical opportunity during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri systematically worked to extract Lebanon from Syrian influence. President Emile Lahoud's election aided Damascus in regaining its strategic position, while Hariri, leading the opposition, advocated for Syrian troop withdrawal.

Events once again took a tragic turn. On February 14, 2005, Hariri's motorcade was bombed in a Beirut street, resulting in 22 fatalities, including Hariri himself.

Initially, Hariri's mission appeared sustainable after his death. These events were termed the "Cedar Revolution". His supporters successfully secured President Lahoud's resignation—who interestingly maintained close familial connections with the Armenian community—and achieved Syrian troop withdrawal. However, they could not resolve the critical challenge of restoring effective governmental control across Lebanon's entire territory or removing Hezbollah's armed structures in the south, which continue to maintain a united front with Dashnaktsutyun.

The country still remains bereft of a strong, credible leader capable of reclaiming Lebanon for its people. This objective is unlikely to be accomplished through external intervention.