TENSE SUMMIT

The summit of the leaders of the world's twenty largest economies in Rio de Janeiro occurred amid unprecedented geopolitical tensions in recent decades. Two wars—in Ukraine and the Middle East—threaten to escalate into larger global conflicts, raising alarms for countries that could become their most active potential participants.

In this context, plans for sustained economic growth pose challenges related to establishing or even restoring a more predictable foreign policy relationship.

G20 Environmental Agenda

The main objectives of the meeting were to discuss the prospects for sustainable development among G20 nations and the transition to cleaner energy sources. This is particularly important in light of the agreement reached at the UN climate talks in Azerbaijan during the UN COP29 summit, which aimed to address global warming.

As the record of rising annual average temperatures continues to be set globally, summit participants in Brazil sought to strengthen efforts to combat climate change before Donald Trump potentially assumes office again as US president in January. It has been reported that the former president is preparing to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change and reverse US policies regarding global warming.

In a joint statement issued on the day of the summit, G20 leaders called for "a rapid and substantial increase in climate finance from billions to trillions of dollars from all sources." G20 participants agreed that COP29 negotiators must reach consensus on how much money rich countries should allocate to poorer developing nations to combat climate change.

While the statement emphasized the necessity of addressing this issue, it did not specify what actions should be taken. Economists suggest that achieving a green transition will require total investments of at least $1 trillion annually. Developed nations, particularly in Europe, believe that the donor base should be broadened to include wealthier developing countries like China, as well as those in the Middle East, in order to achieve this ambitious goal. However, developing countries have resisted such an expansion of the list of major donors.

Sources close to the G20 discussions indicated that a text was proposed suggesting that developing countries could contribute on a voluntary basis, but this language did not make it into the final agreement.

With coal, but for the green transition

The motivations of economic leaders from the developing world are clear; they remain critically dependent on fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency, while developed economies consumed nearly 50% of coal in 2000, by 2026, India and China alone are projected to account for over 70% of this fuel.

In 2023, as reported by Global Energy Monitor, China, India, and Indonesia began operating 59 GW of new coal-fired power plants and either initiated or resumed project proposals for another 131 GW. This represents approximately 93% of the global total.

Coal production in China, India, and Indonesia remains high. Interestingly, all these countries are leaders in economic growth among the twenty largest economies globally. They significantly outpace their competitors in this regard, largely due to falling prices for traditional energy sources, particularly coal.

China increased its coal production by 2.9% to a record 4.66 billion tons in 2023. India received over 1 billion tons of coal during the current fiscal year (from April 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024), which has reduced its dependence on costly energy imports. In 2023, Indonesia achieved a record coal production level of 775 million tons, primarily driven by rapidly growing domestic demand from its energy-intensive nickel processing sector.

Opening the annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated that the impact of climate change is evident worldwide and requires urgent attention. The G20 countries, which control 85% of the world economy, are responsible for more than three-quarters of emissions contributing to climate warming. It is no coincidence that at the summit's conclusion, the G20 committed to agreeing on a legally binding treaty to limit plastic pollution by the end of 2024. More than two years of negotiations aimed at reaching this agreement are poised to culminate.

Empathy without involvement

G20 leaders gathered at the Museum of Modern Art in Rio de Janeiro for their two-day summit and issued a joint statement expressing sympathy for those suffering in conflict zones in the Middle East and Ukraine while calling for cooperation on poverty reduction and tax policies.

According to observers, one goal of the meeting was to discuss current political agendas in an effort to reinforce multilateral consensus before Donald Trump returns to power in January. Many agreements—ranging from trade and climate change to international security—could undergo significant adjustments under Washington's influence in the near future. After all, Trump has promised a major overhaul of American foreign policy upon taking office—covering areas from trade tariffs to seeking a peaceful resolution for the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian issue emerged as a contentious topic. The parties decided to limit their discussion to acknowledging the negative consequences stemming from escalating conflict while mentioning only "human suffering" and severe economic repercussions.

The leaders' statement also expressed "deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip," urging for urgent additional aid and protection for civilians while calling for a comprehensive ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon.

Following the outgoing US administration's decision to permit Ukraine to fire ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory and Moscow's promise to respond adequately, European diplomats insisted on revising previously agreed language concerning global conflicts. They proposed including phrases condemning Moscow’s actions in the final declaration text; however, encountering resistance from Beijing, New Delhi, and several other participants led them to abandon this effort eventually.

According to Bloomberg analysts, the G20 summit revealed a decline in Western influence within global politics while highlighting an increase in BRICS countries' influence. The G20 increasingly illustrates a shift toward multipolarity, where Western powers are losing their dominant position in favour of other states.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the summit; instead, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov represented Russia. For the first time in recent years, Western leaders did not refuse a collective photo with Lavrov's participation. Notably, French President Emmanuel Macron even shook hands with Sergei Lavrov, signalling a gradual shift in European leaders' attitudes toward potential peace agreements.

The beginning of the West's decline

Regardless, world leaders acknowledged that Brazil's proposed agenda led discussions beyond the traditional comfort zones of Western powers. "We are witnessing a significant transformation within global structures," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on the summit's sidelines, highlighting the increasing significance of major emerging economies. "These are countries that desire their own perspectives and will no longer accept that circumstances remain as they have been for decades..

Chinese President Xi Jinping took advantage of this opportunity to announce a series of measures aimed at supporting emerging economies within the Global South, encompassing scientific cooperation with Brazil and African nations alongside lowering trade barriers for least developed countries.

While Xi played a central role at the summit, US President Joe Biden appeared somewhat sidelined as a "lame duck" with only two months remaining in his presidency. As the world anticipates signals from Trump’s new administration, Xi has been actively promoting China's narratives, including initiatives like "One Belt, One Road." Notably, just one week before the Rio summit, China inaugurated a massive deep-water port in Peru as part of this initiative.

Although Brazil has opted not to join China’s initiative at this time due to concerns about possible repercussions for its relations with Washington, it continues to view its ties with Beijing as strategic. Evidence of this was seen when both parties signed an agreement aiming to achieve synergies between China's One Belt, One Road plan and several Brazilian government programs focused on industrial modernization, ecological transformation, South American integration routes, and an initiative designed to connect Brazil with China's Chancay megaport in Peru.

The two leaders announced the formation of two task forces dedicated to financial cooperation and productive sustainable development. They will have two months to identify priority Brazilian projects eligible for funding through the One Belt, One Road initiative.

The growing rapprochement between Beijing and Brazil has not gone unnoticed by G20 participants and serves as an illustration that Western dominance within global formats is waning—and appears irrevocably so.