DECISIVE BATTLE

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has initiated a new plan to address the Kurdish issue, which can tentatively be referred to as Cözüm Süreci II (Solution Process II). The first plan under the same name was introduced by the Justice and Development Party in an effort to resolve the conflict between Türkiye and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the mid-2000s. This initial plan aimed at legitimising Kurdish political organisations in exchange for their commitment to cease hostilities against the Turkish government. However, for a variety of reasons, it was never realised.

Is Ocalan back on board?

Given the current circumstances, there appears to be a renewed necessity for reconciliation with politically active Kurds. Erdogan has indeed endorsed a proposal from MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) leader Devlet Bahceli, suggesting that imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan announce his party's disarmament in parliament. "Devlet-bey is a leader who sets the course of history with his bold speeches," the president remarked. 

The renewed interest in Ocalan can be attributed to the rapid political changes in the Middle East, spurred by Israel's military actions in Gaza and the onset of confrontation with Hezbollah. This conflict could potentially engulf the entire region, and the involvement of Iran poses grave risks for all neighbouring countries, including Türkiye. The terrorist PKK could become part of a broader scenario aimed at destabilising the situation, which is precisely what Ankara fears. 

In his opening speech to parliament on October 1, President Erdogan highlighted the escalating threat of war in the Middle East and called for "strengthening the domestic front." His political ally, Devlet Bahceli, approached the Democratic Party (DEM) podium and defiantly shook hands with its deputies. On October 15, Bahceli directly addressed Abdullah Ocalan: "He, who was ready for any service when he was brought to Türkiye, should unilaterally announce the cessation of terrorism and the dissolution of his organisation." 

During an IPA group meeting on October 22, Devlet Bahceli elaborated further. He stated that if the terrorist leader's isolation were lifted, Ocalan should come and address a meeting of the parliamentary faction of the Democratic Party, announcing a complete end to terrorist activities and the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Turkish media report that MP Omer Ocalan (Abdullah Ocalan's nephew) subsequently met with his uncle and communicated Bahceli's proposal. During their two-hour meeting, Abdullah Ocalan conveyed his satisfaction with Bahceli's call. He indicated that if isolation conditions were lifted and communication became possible, he could assist in persuading the PKK to disarm. Media coverage noted that Abdullah Ocalan recognises his "historical responsibility" and is prepared to urge the Kurdistan Workers' Party to lay down its arms. 

Erdogan's Anti-Terrorist Coalition

Recently, Barzani, the leader of the Kurdish autonomous region of Nechirevan in northern Iran, discussed with the Turkish president the intensification of efforts against the PKK. For both Erdogan and Barzani, the PKK is regarded as enemy number one. Both parties are motivated to eliminate it once and for all. For Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), this is particularly important as the PKK is supported by his long-time political rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). 

As early as last year, Turkish Defence Ministry chief Yasar Güler stated that Türkiye was "constantly warning" PUK leader Bafel Talabani about the "intensification of terrorist activities" in Süleymaniye. "We are monitoring and aware of all their activities. We do not want to take more drastic measures," he remarked, adding that Türkiye also shares information with Iraq and the Kurdistan Democratic Party. 

Reports indicate that Ferhat Abdi Sahin, known by his code name "Mazlum Abdi," who leads the Syrian Democratic Forces and is associated with the PKK/YPG, has visited Süleymaniye on multiple occasions. Posters featuring Bafel Talabani calling for "unity" have appeared in areas of northern Syria controlled by terrorists from that organisation. 

Notably, both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party sided with Armenia during the 44-day war and continue to view Azerbaijan's actions to reclaim its territories as unlawful. 

Barzani's visit to Türkiye served as another warning to the PKK that difficult times may be ahead for it in northern Iraq. In April, during Recep Tayyip Erdogan's official visit to Iraq, Ankara and Baghdad finalised details for an Operational Centre aimed at combating PKK militants. Prior to this, the Iraqi government had already declared the PKK a banned organisation. 

Consequently, the operational space for the PKK has significantly diminished in recent times. This reduction also limits external forces' ability to employ it as a tool to exert pressure on Ankara. When referring to external forces, Türkiye most frequently mentions the United States, Israel, and even Iran. 

The situation escalated to a point where earlier this year Türkiye demanded that Iran cease supplying arms to the PKK and refrain from interfering in Ankara's military operations against armed Kurdish militias. 

In early April, representatives from Turkish and Iranian security agencies convened in Süleymaniye in northern Iraq. The Turkish delegation urged an end to arms supplies to the PKK and proposed cooperation in combating this terrorist organisation. Erdogan anticipates that it will soon be possible to proclaim victory over Kurdish terrorism as a definitive outcome.

Bargaining Irrelevant

With the US elections underway, Iran was engaged in confrontation with Israel, while Russia was focused on its war in Ukraine. Ankara has therefore seized an opportunity to capitalise on favourable conditions to make significant strides in resolving the Kurdish problem.

Recent elections have demonstrated that Kurdish votes frequently play a pivotal role in determining which political force or candidate emerges victorious. A deal with Ocalan could yield substantial benefits for the ruling tandem and bolster its standing in the coming period when Erdogan is expected to pass management of the ruling party to a younger generation of politicians. 

However, Ocalan, who has been held incommunicado for several years, possesses little influence over the PKK to guide such a process. Furthermore, more radical elements within the ruling elite may oppose any agreement with an individual still perceived as Türkiye's number one terrorist. 

A poll conducted by the Social Research Institute revealed that nearly three-quarters of respondents opposed Ocalan's release. Additionally, football fans chanted derogatory remarks directed at the PKK leader during a Fenerbahce match in Istanbul following a terrorist attack in Ankara. 

Many observers speculate that a recent terrorist attack outside the TUSAŞ building near Ankara was linked to Devlet Bahceli's comments regarding Ocalan and aimed at disrupting any potential agreements. Notably, former Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) leader Selahattin Demirtas also supports an agreement involving Ocalan. He has been imprisoned since 2015 and hopes to secure his release through political negotiations. He condemned the terrorist attack in Ankara, stating, "Those who attempt to obstruct our pursuit of solutions through dialogue and politics should understand that if Ocalan initiates action towards political engagement, we will support him with all our strength." 

It appears that Demirtas and his supporters are counting on new agreements with authorities to further their own objectives. Demirtas is relatively young and envisions a more active role for himself in a post-Erdogan Türkiye. Much will depend on these agreements and their effectiveness. They are likely to encompass provisions related to HDP’s backing for government political initiatives for upcoming electoral cycles. The next presidential elections in Türkiye are scheduled for 2028—time is passing swiftly, and preparations may already be underway. 

Strong Settlement

The Turkish government's new plan for addressing the Kurdish issue encounters specific challenges. For instance, PKK leaders have begun articulating demands for easing Ocalan's imprisonment or even advocating for his complete release in response to Ankara’s proposal for dialogue with him. 

Within separatist circles, this proposal from Turkish leadership has been interpreted as a sign of weakness. Nevertheless, Turkish authorities are unlikely to heed demands that initially appear as attempts at bargaining. 

Meanwhile, Erdogan and MHP leader Bahceli convened behind closed doors at the presidential complex in Ankara on November 14. Although no official announcement was made concerning the meeting's purpose, many observed that it followed Bahceli’s proposals aimed at resolving the Kurdish issue. 

A week later, Tuncer Bakirhan, co-chair of the People's Equality and Democracy Party (PYD), which represents Kurdish interests, publicly endorsed initiating a dialogue with Abdullah Ocalan. "With a clear framework for a solution and Abdullah Ocalan's willingness to participate in negotiations, we possess a historic opportunity that is within reach. There is no greater achievement than being remembered as the one who resolved this problem," Bakirhan summarised his statement. 

Thus, political discussions are ongoing in Türkiye, initiated by the government itself regarding broad political dialogue aimed at achieving concrete agreements on the Kurdish issue. At the same time, each interested party presents its own arguments defending its stance. 

Nonetheless, authorities have not abandoned a forceful approach. They insist on maintaining counter-terrorist operations in northern Iraq and Syria, aiming to undermine their opponents’ positions and compel them into agreements on terms favourable to Ankara. They convey that this dialogue is underpinned by strength—that compromise will only be possible through establishing a winning position for authorities.