FRENCH RETREAT

In recent years, France has been experiencing a precipitous decline in its influence in regions that were previously considered to be its strongholds, particularly in West Africa. Recent reports indicate that the era of Paris's post-colonial military and political presence in West Africa has finally come to an end and is unlikely to return.

Macron's Manoeuvrers

A few years ago, President Emmanuel Macron's administration recognized the growing discontent among the political elites of several West African nations regarding the French military presence. In response, France began a gradual reduction in its military presence. Concurrently, a substantial reduction in military forces in West and Central Africa could further erode the influence of the former colonial power, while the actions of other regional actors continue to gain momentum. The French envoy presented Macron with a report proposing a reduction of military personnel in Chad, Gabon, and Côte d'Ivoire, where France has maintained troops for decades. While the specifics of the plan were not disclosed, government sources leaked to the media indicated that the objective was to reduce troop numbers from approximately 2,200 to 600. It was observed that Chad would maintain the largest contingent of 300 French soldiers, a reduction from the previous number of 1,000.

In a surprising turn of events that caught French officials off guard, the government of Chad—a key ally of Paris in the fight against Islamic militants in the region—announced its decision to terminate the defense cooperation pact. This development has prompted experts to suggest that it could represent a significant shift in France's security engagement in Central and West Africa. According to informed sources, the decision by Chad to terminate the cooperation agreement was not discussed with Paris, making it an unexpected development.

France, which seeks to maintain a military base in Chad partly to influence political developments in neighboring Sudan, is likely to pursue a new agreement with N'Djamena. This shift in France's security posture in Africa is further evidenced by the special conference convened by Emmanuel Macron in Paris in April of this year, which was aimed at addressing the ongoing internal political crisis in Sudan that has led to a civil war. However, his efforts were unsuccessful as representatives from both the government and the opposing Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) did not attend.

Attempted Peacemaking

Nevertheless, this did not deter Macron from "seeking peace" in a distant African nation. His efforts were so persistent that they elicited mixed reactions in neighbouring Chad. During the October Francophonie summit in Paris, President Macron and the Chadian leader Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno engaged in a debate concerning the ongoing conflict in Sudan. According to Jeune Afrique, the exchange between the two leaders was characterized by a certain degree of tension. Specifically, Macron alleged that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was supplying weapons to the Rapid Reaction Force via Chad and called for neutrality regarding Sudan—a stance that was negatively received by the Chadian president.

Remarkably, Macron had previously expressed support for Déby Itno, who ascended to power following the death of his father, who had ruled Chad for three decades. Déby Sr. was assassinated in 2021 during a coup attempt. In a noteworthy development, the Chadian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on November 27, shortly after the French foreign minister and his Chadian counterpart visited the border with Sudan. The statement underscored that N'Djamena aspires to assert its full sovereignty after more than six decades of independence from Paris.

It is noteworthy that, at the insistence of the Chadian government, a small contingent of US special forces has already departed from the country this year. In another setback for Paris, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye stated on state television that French troops have no place in his country, where 350 French soldiers are currently stationed. This development follows the withdrawal of French military forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in the aftermath of coups d'état in those nations, a move that has significantly tarnished France's international reputation.

The remaining French soldiers in the region will henceforth prioritize training, intelligence sharing, and responding to requests for assistance on an individual country basis. The withdrawal of both French and American troops from Africa stands in stark contrast to the growing influence of Russia, China, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates on the continent.

Late Acknowledgement

Amidst a sharp decline in his authority within the region, the French president chose to make a delayed acknowledgment in a letter addressed to Senegal's authorities in late November. Specifically, he recognized for the first time that the killing of West African soldiers by the French army in 1944 constituted a massacre. Up to 400 West African soldiers fighting for France in 1940 were killed on December 1, 1944, when their mutiny over unpaid wages was suppressed.

Nonetheless, this revelation has not influenced existing trends or attitudes toward the French military presence in West Africa. There is another perspective regarding Paris's declining influence: Macron has increasingly prioritized the Indo-Pacific region within France's military and geopolitical strategies, diverting considerable attention and resources.

From the outset of his presidency, Macron has sought to reform relations with former African colonies. The gradual reduction of military personnel was part of the "Barkhan" program; however, his administration's approach has been remarkably clumsy, preventing a soft transformation of relations from taking hold.

One manifestation of this soft power has been addressing historical grievances and recognizing Paris's role and political responsibility for the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, which resulted in 800,000 deaths. Macron insists that France was not complicit in this crime but acknowledges the necessity of recognizing past mistakes—a stance that only irritates local political elites who accuse Paris of hypocrisy.

The French president has initiated the return of artifacts and works of art looted during colonial times to Benin and Côte d'Ivoire, following Germany's example of returning colonial-era cultural property to Niger. However, both Benin and Côte d'Ivoire view French actions as insufficient. According to a 2018 report commissioned by Macron, up to 90% of African art objects are housed outside the continent, notably forming the basis of collections at the Louvre and the Museum of African Art (museum on the Quai Branly).

When Immediate Goals Overshadow Distant Objectives

The long-standing military presence of Paris has failed to guarantee security for societies within its former colonies or prevent various rebel groups from vying for power within their nations. Meanwhile, poverty, refugees, corruption, ethnic tensions, and thousands of casualties from ongoing conflicts over more than a decade have contributed to local discontent and fostered beliefs that France is fuelling instability in these regions.

Moreover, for many countries, France's influence has been significant not only in security matters but also in monetary policy and other areas. The CFA franc currency system keeps 14 African nations—including Senegal and Chad—dependent on France and consequently on the eurozone. The franc zone format is increasingly perceived as an outdated structure and a remnant of colonialism that restricts the financial autonomy of African countries. Consequently, many are calling for a reassessment of current practices or their complete elimination.

What is often labelled anti-French sentiment is actually a demand for sovereignty and self-determination; people wish for their countries to address their own challenges. France appears to have become distracted from the rapidly changing political landscape of the Sahel due to numerous domestic issues, including the war in Ukraine and rising support for extreme right movements amid governmental crises. The country's unstable domestic policies have only exacerbated setbacks on its foreign policy front.

The failure of Operation Barkhan—France's largest overseas military operation in decades—has further alienated African nations from Paris. The mission incurred costs amounting to billions of euros and resulted in the loss of 53 French soldiers' lives without achieving its objectives for securing Western Sahel; it was terminated in 2022. Additionally, changes within France’s diplomatic institutions have widened the "gap" between aspirations and realities.

Whereas French foreign policy once benefited from experienced career diplomats with deep regional knowledge and an understanding of long-term national interests, it is now largely shaped by advisers at Elysee Palace selected based on their alignment with Macron's vision. French experts themselves acknowledge that their perspectives align more closely with neo-liberal ideological doctrines than with diplomatic traditions. Their decisions are often influenced by domestic political factors rather than aimed at achieving strategic long-term foreign policy objectives. As they say, it is an achingly familiar scenario."