UNPREDICTABLE DONALD

In January, after his inauguration, US President-elect Donald Trump will take office in the Oval Office at the White House. While running for another term, Trump made numerous bold promises, causing many people to pause in anticipation. Which of these are mere rhetoric and which represent actual plans?

A Window of Opportunities

The United States continues to dominate the global landscape, wielding both military and financial superiority. This positions the nation as a pivotal actor in global affairs, significantly impacting individuals and nations worldwide. This concern is further exacerbated by a global power crisis that has affected numerous countries, spanning from Europe to Asia. The emergence of a so-called "window of opportunity" during the transition of power in the United States has been cited as a contributing factor.

However, this assertion may not be entirely accurate, as Trump has effectively begun governing the country since November, acting as if he is already in office. A notable example of this transition was his first foreign visit as the new head of the White House, which took place in December. On December 7, Trump attended the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, which had been restored five years after the fire. Accompanying the American leader were British Crown Prince William, the presidents of Georgia (Salome Zurabishvili), Ukraine (Vladimir Zelensky), Italy (Sergio Mattarella), and other Western politicians. The discourse among this distinguished assembly is believed to have transcended mere admiration for the aesthetic grandeur of the historic structure.

In pursuit of his objectives and to fulfil his campaign promises, Trump has already assembled a team of "loyal Trumpists," as they are referred to in political discourse. Among these individuals, some exhibit political inclinations that are as contentious as those of the president-elect himself. For instance, Florida Senator Marco Rubio is anticipated to assume leadership of the State Department. Rubio is regarded as a foreign policy hawk and an ardent opponent of China, having cast his vote in favour of sanctions against Russia and against aid to Ukraine. It is noteworthy that Rubio had previously expressed strong criticism of Trump; however, he has since modified his position.

Trump has offered the post of the National Intelligence Director to Tulsi Gabbard, a US Army Reserve officer suspected of having sympathies toward Moscow (she has publicly acknowledged the "legitimacy" of Russia's concerns regarding Ukraine's NATO membership). Gabbard is also known for her claims about the US establishing 25 to 30 biological laboratories in Ukraine.

Trump envisions Congressman Mike Waltz, also considered a "hawk," as his national security advisor. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is likely to become head of the Pentagon, further reinforcing supporters of a forceful foreign policy approach.

Among the wealthiest individuals globally, businessman Elon Musk is set to lead the US government's efficiency department. Kash Patel, son of Indian immigrants and recognized as one of Trump's most loyal supporters—a champion of "America First"—has been nominated for the position of FBI director.

John Lee Ratcliffe, who served as head of the National Intelligence Agency during Trump's first term, has been appointed CIA director. Robert Kennedy Jr., a prominent anti-vaccine activist and environmental attorney, son of former New York Senator Robert Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy—who was assassinated in the 1960s—is slated to become Secretary of Health.

The Big Question and The Promise

The fundamental question facing the global community, particularly the European political elite, pertains to the feasibility of resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In any event, Trump has asserted that he can conclude the conflict even before his inauguration and potentially halt the war within 24 hours. Discussions concerning the potential for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev are gaining traction. This potential development is supported by several factors. Firstly, Tucker Carlson's interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (in which Carlson likely conveyed a certain message to Putin) has contributed to the ongoing discussions. Secondly, there has been an active discussion regarding Keith Kellogg's plan, which is to serve as Trump's appointed special envoy for Ukraine. Thirdly, Michael Waltz, who is Trump's future national security advisor, has conversed with former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and Andrey Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential office, has visited the United States.

Many observers believe that Trump's election has the potential to significantly reduce the likelihood of Ukraine's accession to NATO. Conversely, there has been an increasing discourse regarding the potential deployment of EU (NATO) peacekeepers in Ukraine. Additionally, there have been speculations that the incoming White House administration may be anticipating a shift in Kiev's leadership. The particulars of the discussions held between Trump and Zelensky in Paris remain ambiguous; their conversation lasted no more than half an hour and transpired in the presence of Emmanuel Macron. Subsequent to the meeting, Trump published a statement on his Truth Social platform, asserting that Ukraine aspires to achieve a peace accord with Russia and urging an immediate cessation of hostilities and the commencement of peace negotiations. He further cautioned that the crisis in Ukraine "could escalate into something much larger and far worse."

The "Cathedral" negotiations in Paris unfolded amid a severe governmental crisis and economic difficulties in France. A comparable situation is occurring in Germany. The financial crisis has contributed to a decline in the standing of mainstream political parties in both nations. Given Paris and Berlin's pivotal roles within the EU, both countries are in urgent need of support from the new White House administration. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the primary focus of the Trump administration is on achieving its own objectives and securing its own benefits. This tendency has been previously observed in Washington's interactions with European capitals during his previous presidency. For instance, Trump has expressed frustration over the over $300 billion trade deficit with the EU, even going so far as to label the EU a "mini-China" in this regard while promising to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20%.

It is crucial to acknowledge that, irrespective of the president's character, the United States' reliance on the European Union is comparable to the EU's reliance on Washington. The trade volume between the United States and the European Union constitutes nearly 30% of the world's total trade and 43% of global GDP. The European Union, comprising 450 million individuals, is widely recognized for its robust and influential economy, which is considered to be among the strongest worldwide.

Defence Does Matter

It is imperative that the United States and its European allies address their divergent interests regarding NATO. It is a well-documented fact that President Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the contributions of his allies to the Alliance's defence efforts. In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, it is evident that neither the Old nor the New World can assert the obsolescence of NATO or its lack of relevance. Nevertheless, Trump has recently reiterated that fulfilling financial obligations by allies will be a crucial condition for Washington's continued involvement in NATO. While it is evident that he will not resort to extreme measures, it is plausible that the European Union should consider making substantial endeavours outside the ambit of NATO (US) protection with regard to defence matters.

Discussions are underway concerning the establishment of a €500 billion joint defence fund, intended to finance collaborative defence initiatives and arms acquisitions. The European Union is preparing to allocate substantial resources into a new seven-year budget aimed at enhancing the bloc's defence capabilities.

Moreover, the potential re-election of Donald Trump may encourage the European Union to seek closer ties with the United Kingdom in various sectors, including joint defence initiatives. The current state of relations between Keir Starmer's Labour administration and American Republicans has been characterized by a certain degree of tension, which might be a contributing factor to the decision to assign efforts to establish connections to Prince William, a personal admirer of Trump.

In light of the dynamic interplay between European partners, it will be intriguing to observe the evolution of US relations with its closest continental ally. Notably, just days before his inauguration, Trump provoked a diplomatic incident with Canada by joking, in a rhetorical question, about the possibility of Canada becoming an American state. The American president-elect expressed concerns to Trudeau regarding the latter's government's inability to effectively address issues related to illegal immigration and drug smuggling, while also highlighting a $100 billion trade deficit. Some analysts speculate that Trump's remark about a "new American state" may not have been entirely humorous...

Middle East, China, Iran...

Another critical issue for both the world and the United States lies in the Middle East, where recent events have shifted focus from Gaza Strip and Lebanon to Syria. It remains challenging to forecast how developments in the region will unfold following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime. However, one likely scenario involves fragmentation into several states or zones of responsibility—a situation that undoubtedly poses risks for all neighbouring nations, including Israel, which can rely on Trump's support without question.

It remains uncertain how relations between Türkiye and the United States will evolve amidst serious disagreements on various issues. Among other concerns, Washington's true stance on Ankara's increasing regional role is unclear. What is certain is that Trump will intensify pressure on Iran, which is already losing influence in the region due not only to Israel's actions against Hamas and Hezbollah but also as a consequence of events unfolding in Syria.

However, Washington's most significant challenge will continue to be China. The PRC is perceived as America's principal rival in the Indo-Pacific region and as both an economic and geopolitical threat. China's activities are raising concerns among Americans from various angles globally; its systematic strengthening of economic presence in South America, Africa, Asia, and former Soviet territories has become evident through its participation in organizations such as BRICS and SCO.

Interestingly, Trump has vowed to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they establish a new currency; however, he did not clarify how this would impact the US itself. There will be no victors in this trade war (Trump previously promised high tariffs on Chinese goods as well), a reality that even he cannot overlook.

What January 20, 2025—the date Donald Trump is scheduled to officially assume office—will bring for both the United States and the world remains uncertain. There are currently too many turbulent zones within global geopolitics and far too many unknowns to attempt solving this equation accurately. One thing is clear: Trump is preparing to protect his nation's interests at all costs. On this path, if it proves advantageous, he is willing both to negotiate with adversaries while simultaneously refusing concessions to allies. The pressing question remains: how will both rivals and friends respond? Will such a defence of American interests come at a cost to the United States itself? Are we likely to witness fundamentally new approaches and solutions? Once again, Trump's unpredictability—along with that of some members of his team—renders it impossible to foresee which priorities he will emphasize first. This unpredictability escalates tensions in a world already geopolitically "coming apart at the seams." We shall await January.