IMMUNITY TO DICTATORSHIPS

After days of efforts, the National Assembly of South Korea has formally approved the impeachment of President Yun Seok-yol. The it's the responsibility of the Constitutional Court to deliver a definitive verdict, determining whether to proceed with the impeachment process or to allow President Yeol to retain his position. The adjudication of this case is projected to extend over a period of up to six months.

News reports from South Korea in early December may have reminded many of the events of forty-five years ago, when another coup attempt resulted in a change of power in South Korea. However, the period of successive military dictatorships in South Korea ended nearly 35 years ago, and it was widely believed that history would not repeat itself. Nevertheless, the events of early December have profoundly eroded the prevailing sentiment among South Koreans that the period of military coups has definitively come to an end.

Was it worth it?

It all started when South Korean President Yun Seok-yol declared martial law on the evening of December 3 amid attempts to oust him from his position. This was accompanied by the swift deployment of military vehicles throughout Seoul and the commencement of helicopter patrols above the city.

Subsequently, the parliament, which was predominantly comprised of opposition members, convened in an emergency session and revoked the presidential decree, deeming it unlawful and declaring the president himself to be illegitimate. As the nation approached the precipice of civil unrest, President Yeol himself rescinded the imposition of martial law. In a televised address, the South Korean leader attributed this decision to the actions of North Korea's supporters, who, he claimed, had effectively "paralysed" the work of his administration. This course of action was not unprecedented; it had been previously employed by the country's military leaders, leading to widespread shock and fear among the civilian population.

Without providing any evidence, Yoon Seok-yeol accused "anti-state forces" sympathetic to North Korea of undermining democracy in South Korea by "inciting internal rebellion." He further asserted that the National Assembly, which should serve as the foundation of liberal democracy, has morphed into a formidable entity that seeks to undermine it. The martial law decree banned all political activity, strikes, and fake news, while placing all media under control. Army General Pak An-Su was given command of martial law. Although the martial law emergency declared by President Yun Seok-yol lasted only six hours, the event has plunged South Korea—Asia's key economy and a US ally—into a political crisis that could persist for quite some time.

The South Korean Dark Horse

South Korea's current leader won the 2022 head of state election by a margin of just 1%. This is the smallest gap between the two leading candidates in the entire history of presidential elections in the country. Yoon Seok-yeol, the candidate of the conservative People's Power Party, has never held a seat in either parliament or the cabinet. He has been an advocate for supporting small businesses and the military and has favored promoting democracy and closer ties with Japan and the United States.

"I will restore liberal democracy, the rule of law, and justice," Yeol declared as he ran for the June 2021 presidential election. Amid personal life scandals, economic crises, and other controversies, Yoon's approval rating has steadily declined—from more than 50 percent when he took office to nearly 20 percent this November.

Public discontent with the president's actions, which had been gradually accumulating, was significantly exacerbated by the scandal involving his wife, Kim Gun-hee, and the alleged acceptance of a luxury Dior handbag valued at approximately 3 million won (equivalent to nearly $2,000) from a Korean-American pastor. The incident, exposed through surreptitious filming, elicited widespread public outrage and led to discourse surrounding corruption within the highest echelons of government. The pastor implicated his own collaboration with Voice of Seoul, a left-leaning YouTube platform, in order to expose clandestine machinations at the highest levels of government, further exacerbating the situation.

In an effort to regain public favour, the president issued an apology and stated that the leaked video was part of politically motivated actions against his family. Nevertheless, these actions did not yield the anticipated outcomes. As a result, even before the imposition of martial law, hundreds of thousands of South Koreans signed a petition calling for the resignation of the current head of state. Concurrently, the opposition Democratic Party, which holds a majority in parliament, blocked all of Yoon Seok-yeol's initiatives, including his proposed draft budget, thereby hindering his ability to govern effectively.

Following an unsuccessful attempt to impose martial law in the country, six opposition parties announced that they had filed a motion to impeach the president. It should be noted that the process of impeachment requires the approval of two-thirds majority in parliament. However, the December 7th vote failed to achieve this threshold, as representatives of the ruling party declined to participate, thereby preventing the impeachment process from advancing. Nonetheless, the opposition has expressed its intention to persist in its efforts to oust the president.

On December 14, the second attempt to impeach the president was successful, and the Constitutional Court of South Korea will now determine the president's fate.

Irreversible Processes

In the event of the South Korean president's resignation or suspension, Prime Minister Han Dok-soo is anticipated to assume the presidency. The declaration of martial law and subsequent events suggest the possibility of high-profile treason trials against both the president and his inner circle. Concurrently, the initiation of criminal proceedings could result in substantial penalties. According to South Korean law, treason is a capital offence, but this punishment has not been imposed since 1997.

Subsequent to the termination of the state of emergency, the South Korean Defense Minister, Kim Yong-hyun, submitted his resignation. According to reports from local media outlets, he was the individual who had recommended that the president impose martial law. Subsequent to this revelation, Kim Yong-hyun formally acknowledged his culpability and assumed responsibility for the events that transpired, expressing remorse to the nation's citizens. Subsequently, he was apprehended and formally charged with attempting a coup.

Concurrently, the public's perception of the South Korean president underwent a transformation, shifting from a negative stance to one of outright rejection of his actions following the failed attempt to impose martial law. This event marks a historic first, as it is unprecedented in modern history for a head of state to be investigated for treason, sedition, and abuse of power. Consequently, Yoon Seok-yeol is currently the subject of an ongoing investigation and is prohibited from travelling abroad, as per the directive issued by the Ministry of Justice. It is noteworthy that the South Korean leader himself, in his address to the nation, effectively refused to voluntarily resign and stated that he was prepared to go through either impeachment proceedings or an investigation against him.

Foreign Policy Effects of Domestic Political Crisis

The domestic political crisis coincided with escalating foreign policy contradictions. The precarious circumstances in South Korea may offer a strategic advantage to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, as they divert global attention from his perennial geopolitical rivalry to the internal challenges faced by his nation.

In the recent past, the ongoing military involvement of North Korea in the Ukraine conflict was a major topic of discussion, with both Seoul and Pyongyang engaged in a heated exchange of accusations, each blaming the other for escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. However, this subject has since receded from the forefront of global discourse.

While Pyongyang's cooperation with Moscow has led to concerns among South Korea's allies in the West, a deepening political crisis in South Korea could hinder the effectiveness of collective action by the United States and its allies in the Far East, not only against Russia but also against China. South Korea's evolving geopolitical dynamics, marked by its growing collaboration with Moscow, have prompted concerns among Western strategists. These strategists view South Korea as a potential "weak link" in the broader strategy aimed at countering China's expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Many of South Korea's Western partners have expressed disapproval of its actions as a Far Eastern ally, and with its current lack of participation, high-level contacts may be terminated entirely, which would have a negative impact on Seoul's foreign policy positions. Notably, the US Secretary of Defence has decided to cancel its plans to visit South Korea, a significant development that underscores the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the region.

With the return of Donald Trump to the United States presidency, the Biden administration's efforts to cultivate regional alliances may become less significant. Consequently, South Korea's domestic political turbulence is likely to reduce its reliability as an ally for Washington.