WORTHLESS INTENTIONS

We won the Garabagh war... Armenia suffered a crushing defeat, yet continues to try to convince the international community that the war is not over. This is probably because we didn't uproot fascism—Armenian fascism.

German fascism was eradicated in its stronghold, Berlin. This guaranteed many years without its recurrence. Armenian fascism, however, is not finished. We acted humanely, avoiding unnecessary casualties. Geopolitical factors were also at play. The main issue is that the unchecked fascism has morphed into a perverse form of revanchism.

Initially, we heard revanchist calls and slogans from the so-called "Garabagh clan of Robik and Serzhik," other figures supported by the "Garabagh clan's" backers, and representatives of the Armenian Apostolic Church. Subsequently, narratives emerged from both the opposition and authorities, including the government, about the need to rebuild the armed forces and strengthen defense capabilities. The logic behind this was difficult to grasp, as when Armenia was defeated and defenseless, Azerbaijan did not cross the border or finish it off. It has no intention of attacking or fighting Armenia in the future either.

On the contrary, Azerbaijan, with clear superiority over Armenia in all indicators (army, armament, economy, demographics, etc.), did not cross the conventional border or seize its territories. It only liberated its occupied lands. Baku proposed signing a peace agreement, putting forth five principles contained in the UN Charter, principles to which Yerevan has long been a signatory. However, as we can see, Armenia is not going to conclude a peace agreement. Meanwhile, it continuously states that it is urgently ready to sign it in its own version.

Recently, there has been increased activity of the Armenian armed forces in various directions, mainly along the conventional border with Azerbaijan. This is confirmed by numerous well-known facts.

Increased Activity in Armenia

First and foremost, these efforts are driven by the outgoing Democrat government in the United States and President Macron's Azerbaijanophobic team, who aim to enhance the combat training of the Armenian Armed Forces and supply them with military equipment. Information about joint exercises, delivered and promised weapons is alarming. Not long ago, it was impossible to imagine such exercises with the Americans in Armenia. Yet, in November, units of the Armenian and French Armed Forces participated in exercises in Greece. The objectives were stated as: "To practice tactical scenarios of defensive and offensive operations, including live firing, to improve operational readiness, combat capabilities, mutual understanding, exchange of experience, and interaction between the participating forces."

Azerbaijan has no claims on Armenian territory and is not planning to invade. However, the offensive models of weapons acquired by Yerevan irreversibly lead to an arms race in the South Caucasus. Given Tbilisi's complex relations with the EU, Armenia's non-subject status, and its territorial claims to Georgia, the latter will not be able to stay out of this process.

Procurement of Various Weapons

The channels of Armenia's arms acquisition have drawn attention from both international and domestic media. Comparison of information allows us to outline objective, trustworthy data on the acquired weapons and planned deliveries. Thus, Armenia became the first foreign country to purchase the Akash missile system from India. Two years ago, a contract was signed for the purchase of 15 such surface-to-air systems. The Akash has the capability of defeating enemy aircraft, missiles, UAVs, and other airborne assets at a distance of up to 25 kilometres.

A few months ago, Armenia received modern French 155-millimeter CAESAR self-propelled artillery units (SPUs) and their accessories. At least one division, including 12 SPUs, was delivered. Armenia has also purchased anti-tank missile systems and air-to-air missiles.

The Armenian aviation received a batch of R511 and R530 air-to-air missiles. The land forces received ERYX anti-tank missiles, German-made Bunkerfaust (DM32) grenade launchers, Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank systems, Apilas (France) disposable hand-held rocket-propelled grenades, BGM71-TOW (USA) anti-tank missile systems, and more.

Thanks to Indian media, it was publicly announced that Armenia plans to purchase Prahaar surface-to-surface missiles with a range of 150 kilometres and Pralay tactical ballistic missiles from India. Pralay is a containerized short-range precision surface-to-surface missile that can manoeuvrer on the final stretch of flight to overcome enemy missile defence. Their range is 150-500 kilometres.

There was unexpected information, which was not denied, about Greece's intentions to transfer decommissioned Russian S-300 systems, Tor-M1, and Osa-AKM SAMs to Armenia as it modernizes its air defences. The S-300 system was used in the shelling of peaceful towns in Azerbaijan during the 44-day war, resulting in civilian casualties. The very fact of massive arms deliveries to the region is a "gun on the wall," according to Anton Chekhov, which is bound to go off. Such developments, in light of Azerbaijan's peaceful agenda, indicate one thing: Yerevan's aggressive intentions.

New Military Units And More

This is happening mostly along the conventional border. According to Sasun Mikaelyan, head of the Armenian terrorist organization "Yerkrapah Volunteer Union," over 10,000 Yerkrapah militants are constantly in combat positions. After visiting their locations and inspecting them, Mikayelyan posted a "brave" video online.

Additionally, the Armenian army is establishing offensive strongholds, long-term firing points, and building fortifications. These newly constructed reinforced concrete structures house artillery systems, other assault equipment, and heavy firepower. Consequently, troops are concentrated in these strongholds and firing points.

There is also evidence of a network of tunnels being created along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border—similar to those discovered during the liberation of the Garabagh region. These tunnels are meant to connect the strongholds and firing points being established. This likely explains the activation of the European "binocular mission" on the conditional, not yet delimited and demarcated border with Azerbaijan.

At the same time, old airports in Armenia are being rehabilitated for military use. Mass production of FPV drones has been established, and drills for civilians on their use are being conducted. The military doctrine of the Republic of Armenia states that it "has a defensive character" and is "aimed at strengthening peace and stability in the region." The paradox is that this document also contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and therefore needs to be reviewed and amended before a peace agreement can be signed.