THIRD MIDDLE EASTERN

On December 23, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced that they had ordered the Israeli army to target strategic facilities belonging to the Houthis in Yemen. This development indicates that, following months of confrontations with Hamas and Hezbollah, Tel Aviv has now entered a full-scale military engagement with the Yemeni Houthis. "In recent days, we, along with the defence minister, have given the Israeli army clear instructions to carry out precise strikes on key Houthi targets. We have destroyed significant terrorist assets utilized by the Houthis," Netanyahu stated during a speech to the Knesset.

Israel's Response

Over the past year, Israel has systematically reduced the influence of both Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. The defeat of Hamas's main military core and the destruction of much of Hezbollah's infrastructure have allowed Israel to shift its focus to another regional adversary: Ansar Allah in Yemen. During Israel's military operations in Gaza and South Lebanon, the Houthis launched over 200 rockets and 170 drones into Israeli territory. These attacks were accompanied by efforts to blockade the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, disrupting supply chains and restricting Israel's import and export activities to inflict maximum economic damage. Despite these challenges, Israel's military and economic capabilities remain largely intact.

Israeli leaders regard the threat posed by the Houthis very seriously and are committed to eliminating it as soon as possible. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that Israel will confront the Houthis with the same resolve it has demonstrated against other Iranian-backed terrorist groups. Defence Minister Yisrael Katz has emphasized that Israel will directly target Houthi leaders. According to Katz, the Houthis are making a grave mistake by continuing their attacks on Israel. With the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and a decrease in conflict in Gaza, he observed that Israel now has the opportunity to reallocate resources to the Yemeni front. "This is our current focus, and we are developing a response in collaboration with our allies, led by the United States. When the time comes, we will ensure that Houthi forces pay the price," Katz stated.

The Israeli government is taking concrete steps to back up its threats. Following a Houthi attack on a school in Ramat Gan earlier this month, the Israel Defence Forces executed a series of intensive airstrikes against Houthi targets along the Red Sea coast. According to Israeli military sources, the objective of these strikes was to incapacitate all three ports utilized by the group, targeting fuel depots, power plants, and tugboats operating in Houthi-controlled ports.

Die Hard

Despite these efforts, the Houthis remain resilient. Experts assert that Israel must consider more comprehensive strategies in order to counter the Houthis, who are well-prepared and well-equipped, and capable of withstanding bombings. Some observers believe that Israel cannot tackle the threat posed by Ansar Allah alone and must work alongside the US and possibly an Arab coalition to effectively counter it while potentially strengthening ties with regional countries.

Remarkably, Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be discreetly supporting Israel's operations against the Houthis, given their prior experience fighting this Yemeni group for five years without success. The Houthis pose a substantial threat to their interests due to their close alliance with Iran, which is regarded as its "punishing sword" and a reliable instrument against rivals.

Saudi Arabia recalls the Houthi attack on two Saudi Aramco facilities using 18 drones and seven cruise missiles on September 14, 2019. This attack targeted central oil processing points in Abqaiq and Hurais, resulting in a significant drop in the kingdom's oil production from 10 million barrels per day (bpd) to 4.3 million bpd, alongside a temporary 17% spike in global oil prices. At that time, many speculated that Iran's interests were behind the Houthis' actions. Tehran denies such ties, allowing it to maintain plausible deniability regarding involvement in regional tensions.

The defeat of Ansar Allah could bring an end to this ongoing spectacle. In addition to their launches into Israel, the Iranian-backed group has also conducted missile and drone attacks on nearly 100 merchant ships attempting to traverse the Red Sea, forcing many carriers to abandon this crucial maritime route and disrupting global shipping.

Concurrently, these attacks have elevated the Houthis' standing within Iran's "resistance axis," consolidating their position as pivotal beneficiaries of regional destabilization. With Iran showing reluctance to engage in direct military confrontation with Israel and its major regional proxies largely neutralized, the Houthis remain one of the few forces sustaining this "axis of resistance."

Not A Proxy, But An Ally

The Houthis are not merely proxies; they are now regarded as allies. Once an obscure tribal group in the desert that few had heard of 15 years ago, the Houthis now enjoy unprecedented popularity in the Muslim world as vanguards in the fight against Israel. They have strong motivations to resist as Yemen endures its largest humanitarian crisis in history; according to the United Nations, 80% of the population relies on humanitarian aid. The situation is particularly dire for children under five, with nearly half suffering from moderate to severe stunting due to chronic malnutrition. The constant confrontation with Israel is presented as an existential struggle for survival, diverting society from daily challenges and uniting the nation against a formidable enemy.

While hostility toward Israel and Western nations contributes to close ties between the Houthis and Iran, the group maintains a degree of autonomy and is not as strictly beholden to Tehran's directives as Hezbollah or Shiite militias in Iraq. While they perceive themselves as part of the global resistance, they maintain an independent relationship with Iran, preferring to see their alliance with the Islamic Republic as a balanced and symmetrical partnership.

Contrary to many Iranian proxies, the Houthis are not significantly reliant on financial assistance from Iran. Their income sources include trade fees from shipping and smuggling activities. Additionally, they adhere to a distinct interpretation of Shia Islam, diverging from the official stance of Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is noteworthy that while Iran advised against capturing Sana'a in 2014, the Houthis disregarded this counsel without hesitation.

The relationship between Iran and the Houthis has deepened significantly since 2011, when they led a revolution against Yemen's pro-Saudi President Ali Abdullah Saleh. In 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, regional rivals of Iran, launched military campaigns against the Houthis. In response, Iran began supplying advanced drones and missiles to the group.

In February 2024, a US Central Command Coast Guard team intercepted a ship en route to the Houthis from Iran. The ship was carrying components for medium-range ballistic missiles, explosives, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), military communication equipment, anti-tank guided missile launchers, and other military supplies. It is important to note that these figures represent only the intercepted shipments, suggesting that many more weapons may be reaching the Houthis undetected.

Looking Ahead

In light of recent developments in the Middle East, there may be new opportunities for closer cooperation between Iran and the Houthis. With Hezbollah experiencing setbacks and Assad's regime in Syria showing signs of weakness, the Yemeni Houthis stand as a crucial element of Iran's "axis of resistance." Conversely, a weakening of this "resistance axis" could result in a more autonomous and assertive Ansar Allah movement.

Even if there were a regime change in Iran tomorrow and Tehran chose to halt its support for the Houthis, it would not necessarily mean that they would cease their opposition against hostile regimes. Just as in Afghanistan, Yemen's rugged terrain provides a significant advantage for guerrilla factions facing aerial bombardments, allowing them to adapt effectively to frequent air assaults.

The Saudis led a Sunni coalition that initiated missile attacks in 2015 and deployed tens of thousands of ground troops against what is comparatively a small group. These efforts ultimately failed to dislodge the Houthis from Sana'a or install a loyalist leader.

In January, the United States and the United Kingdom launched Operation Poseidon Archer to target Houthi positions. However, this initiative did not achieve its intended outcomes nor significantly diminish Houthi military capabilities.

The Houthis have amassed significant intelligence regarding US defence mechanisms and employed this knowledge to develop effective defensive measures. They have relocated weapon production underground while maintaining access to ports and arms supplies. Despite the US-led allied attacks, key leadership figures remain in place, Iran's agenda in Yemen remains unaltered, and military infrastructures show no signs of irreparable damage.

Some are questioning why Israel should expect better results than Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or more recently, US and UK forces have achieved if those countries struggled to halt Houthi attacks.

Some within the Israeli leadership are advocating for a more intense approach, including a complete blockade of Yemen's ports, in response to the ongoing conflict. This strategy would involve aerial rocket strikes, similar to those previously employed in Gaza.

There are also proposals to bolster support for Yemeni government forces to create credible ground threats aimed at pushing back Houthi control from both capital cities and key ports.

Israeli military and political factions believe that Iran has begun preparations for a possible Israeli strike; thus, alongside increasing Houthi assaults against Israel, discussions regarding direct actions against Iran are occurring.

However, Israel can only take such extreme measures with US approval. In Washington, the incoming administration is preparing to make decisions that will determine the future trajectory of this "axis of resistance" and ultimately influence the fate of the Houthis themselves.