SYRIAN TRANSITION

Syria is working to establish a new path following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad and the conclusion of over 60 years of Baath Party governance. Concurrently, major global powers and various nations are seeking to establish dialogue with the new Syrian leadership. However, many have expressed reservations regarding the credibility and effectiveness of the new leadership.

A New Reality

The current interim government is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has a pivotal role in the opposition forces' successful campaign against the Assad administration. HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara'a, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, is actively working to reshape the international community's perception of both himself and his organisation. He aims to demonstrate that HTS is not the terrorist group that the UN, the European Union, and several countries had previously labelled it due to its connections to al-Qaeda and allegations of human rights violations.

In numerous interviews with global media outlets, al-Shara'a has attempted to persuade the world that he has no ties to international terrorism and that his ideology lacks Islamist radicalism. To affirm his commitment to a moderate political approach, al-Shara'a has announced several initiatives that provide insight into the intentions of the new Syrian government. The government is formally led by Mohammed al-Bashir, a close associate of al-Shara'a and former head of the rebel administration in Idlib province, who serves as the interim prime minister until March 1, 2025.

A significant decision by al-Shara'a and the Syrian interim government is the disbanding of armed groups to establish a centralized military force under unified command. Former rebel factions are instructed to relinquish their weapons, allowing them to contribute to the construction of a new Syrian army. Concurrently, there are ongoing efforts to re-establish the police force, which will include not only members of the rebel movement but also personnel from previous law enforcement agencies, provided they did not engage in punitive actions against the opposition during the Assad regime.

Addressing concerns that the new authorities might target members of religious minorities, particularly Christians and Shiite Alawites—the main social base of the Assad regime—HTS's leader asserts his intention to "promote an inclusive society." He emphasizes the necessity for "a social contract between the state and all religions to ensure social justice." The new leadership's commitment to maintaining national unity and territorial integrity is also aimed at fostering social and political stability in Syria.

These developments have somewhat bolstered confidence in the new Syrian authorities, facilitating the return of refugees to the country. According to Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, over 50,000 refugees have returned to Syria from neighbouring countries within three weeks following the fall of the Assad regime. However, he underscored the critical need for increased humanitarian aid for returnees and others in need, highlighting the dire living conditions in Syria.

Nevertheless, evidence suggests that Syria is still far from achieving socio-economic and political normalization, as growing tensions persist in several regions. For instance, security forces from the transitional government are conducting operations to neutralize armed supporters of the ousted regime in Tartous province. Interior Minister Mohammed Abdel Rahman reported that "while executing an operation to maintain order in an area near Tartous, law enforcement forces were ambushed by armed elements. Consequently, 14 law enforcers lost their lives and 10 sustained injuries." Authorities have imposed a curfew as security forces continue to search the area. Additionally, operations against former regime supporters have taken place in Hama, located 220 kilometres from Damascus.

The situation is further complicated by protests in western Syria, including Tartous, Latakia, Jableh, and Homs, where members of the Alawite minority have expressed outrage over an attack on an Alawite shrine in Aleppo during the opposition's takeover of the city in late November. Despite the interim government's assurances that this incident is historical, protests persist, leading to clashes with police. In response, the interim government has warned that those who disrupt civil peace, incite sectarian conflict, or undermine national security will face consequences.

What are the expectations for al-Shara'a?

In terms of legitimizing the new Syrian government, the perspectives of key global and regional players are highly significant. These actors have conveyed their openness to engaging in dialogue with the Syrian government, though the level of engagement will be contingent on their respective motivations and interests.

An American delegation, led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, has already visited Syria—the first visit by US diplomats to Damascus in over a decade. Following her meeting with al-Shara'a, she described their discussion as very productive and noted that she found al-Shara'a himself to be a "pragmatic" individual.

It is noteworthy that the United States has rescinded its offer of a $10 million reward for information leading to Ahmed al-Shara'a's capture, indicating Washington's intent to foster dialogue with Syria's de facto leader. The United States appears prepared to engage with al-Shara'a, and a subsequent step could involve removing HTS from its list of terrorist organizations.

The US State Department spokesperson indicated that discussions covered "principles of political transition" in Syria and emphasized the continued fight against the terrorist organization "Islamic State." She underscored the significance of comprehensive consultations involving all Syrians, including women and various ethnic and religious groups. This signals that the new Syrian authorities must work towards establishing an inclusive government that represents the entirety of Syrian society.

The United States is prepared to consider lifting or easing anti-Syrian sanctions, contingent on Damascus's actions. The United States acknowledges that Syria's economic recovery will significantly depend on this move. However, as Leaf noted, "there will be considerable domestic pressure on both the interim government and future administrations to meet requirements for lifting sanctions."

European nations are also actively pursuing relations with the new Syrian authorities. Representatives from Great Britain, France, and Germany visited Damascus following Assad's ousting. Notably, the European Union has dispatched negotiators to Syria to establish direct contacts with HTS and its leadership.

Furthermore, a declaration adopted at the end of the Brussels summit among EU leaders states that the collapse of Assad's regime presents "a historic opportunity for reunification and reconstruction." While this statement does not explicitly state EU support for the new Syrian authorities, it does affirm Brussels' demand for an "inclusive political process that addresses the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people." The declaration emphasizes the importance of upholding human rights, including those of women, safeguarding members of religious and ethnic minorities, and preserving Syria's cultural heritage.

While the EU has permitted the lifting of sanctions against Syria following Assad's departure, it has not provided a definitive timeline for this decision or any indication of plans to remove HTS's designation as a "terrorist organization." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commented on the matter, stating: "We all understand that currently, the situation is rather unclear. It is premature to determine if the new leadership will fulfil its commitments."

As both the new Syrian authorities and Western nations have expressed a readiness for bilateral dialogue, the future prospects of Russia's and Iran's influence in Syria remain uncertain. Russia is prioritizing maintaining some level of military-political role in Syria, which hinges on decisions regarding its military bases in Hmeimim and Tartous. In contrast, Iran's previously robust stance during Assad's regime has undergone a notable shift. The new Syrian government has demanded that Iran "refrain from interfering in our internal affairs" and has not ruled out pursuing legal action in international courts for $300 billion as compensation for damages incurred due to Iran's support for former President Bashar al-Assad. The relationship between Damascus and Tehran has been completely severed, with al-Shara'a and his team showing no indication of restoring it in the near future.

Turkish Terms

Türkiye's position has strengthened among regional powers following the change in Syrian governance. Following Assad's removal, Hakan Fidan and Ibrahim Kalin—the heads of Türkiye's Foreign Ministry and National Intelligence Organization—paid a visit to Damascus. During a joint press conference in Damascus with al-Shara'a, Fidan reaffirmed Ankara's commitment to providing comprehensive support. In turn, al-Shara'a acknowledged Syria's need for Turkish assistance.

Fidan's emphasis on creating "conditions in Syria that will enable Syrians who have been separated from their homeland for years to return" underscores Türkiye's priority regarding the millions of refugees from Syria currently residing within its borders.

Anticipated to be a pivotal element of Türkiye's involvement in Syria, active collaboration between Ankara and Damascus in military matters is poised to play a significant role. This includes discussions about Turkish military advisors training the new Syrian army and potential deployment of Turkish forces in Homs for air defence exercises. Additionally, Türkiye is advocating for the establishment of a new Syrian army based on the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was formed with Turkish support back in 2017. The SNA, which is predominantly comprised of Arab and Turkoman fighters, is conducting operations against Kurdish terrorist groups in northern Syria. These operations underscore Türkiye's commitment to preserving Syria's territorial integrity. As Hakan Fidan has articulated, the primary threat to Türkiye is posed by Kurdish militias who, according to Fidan, "occupy Syrian territory and exploit its natural resources."

Türkiye's significant influence over Syria's new authorities is also reflected in personnel decisions. A high-ranking SNA commander, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has been appointed as Syria's new defence minister; another influential SNA commander, Azzam Gharibi, has assumed the governorship of Aleppo. Additionally, Syria's new foreign minister, Asad Hassan al-Sheibani, a graduate of Istanbul's Sabahattin Zaim University, has cultivated a reputation as a pro-Turkish politician. The visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Damascus is expected to play a pivotal role in determining Türkiye's growing influence on both Syrian affairs and broader Middle Eastern dynamics.