GOING THROUGH A BOILING YEAR

The year 2024 has been marked by a series of significant events. The geopolitical landscape of the world has become increasingly fragmented and marked by violence. Notable events include the ongoing war in Ukraine, significant escalations in the Middle East, civil conflicts in several African countries, armed conflicts in Myanmar, and assaults by criminal gangs and drug cartels in Mexico. Forecasts indicate the potential for a Third World War involving nuclear weapons. According to the Global Peace Index, in 2024, over 50 active conflicts were classified as "boiling" worldwide, marking the highest number since World War II. According to the most conservative estimates, approximately 230,000 individuals have been impacted by these conflicts, with many more affected and displaced. It is noteworthy that the involved parties are increasingly using missiles, drones, aerial bombs, and explosives in their confrontations. 

Another significant political development in 2024 was the elections held in over 60 countries, including the United States, Russia, Brazil, India, the United Kingdom, and France. The outcomes of these popular votes had a direct impact on over 2 billion people worldwide. A predominant concern on electoral agendas worldwide was economic issues. Voters in diverse nations with varying levels of prosperity expressed concerns over inflation, social inequality, deteriorating living conditions due to climate change, issues related to migration, and healthcare. Surveys indicated a growing disconnection between the public and established political leaders and institutions, a sentiment that populists from both the right and left sought to leverage.

The most significant elections and political protests

This trend was most vividly illustrated in the European Parliament elections, where centre-right parties managed to maintain their majority, but populist parties greatly increased their popularity. This phenomenon is indicative of broader electoral trends across Europe. In France, for instance, left-leaning and centrist parties had to collaborate to prevent the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen from gaining power. However, at the beginning of December, France faced a governmental crisis with an uncertain outcome. 

In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party emerged victorious, marking the end of 14 years of Conservative Party rule. Notably, the Reform UK party received the third-largest share of votes (14%), and its leader, Nigel Farage, secured a seat in Parliament on his eighth attempt. 

In Germany, a serious escalation occurred at the end of 2024, when a car drove at high speed into a crowd at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt, resulting in five deaths and over 200 injuries. The perpetrator, a male psychiatrist born in 1974 and holding a long-term residence permit in Germany, was of Saudi Arabian origin. This incident raised significant questions about the effectiveness of security measures and the potential for preventative measures. The incident led to heightened political tensions surrounding immigration and further radicalization of the far-right. The upcoming electoral campaign in Germany already involves personal attacks and populist promises against a backdrop of deep division between parties and voters. 

In the most prominent election of the year, Democrats in the US lost the presidential election to Donald Trump, the former Republican president. Additionally, Republicans secured majorities in both chambers of Congress. The inauguration of the elected president is scheduled for January 20, 2025. Trump's return to the Oval Office is anticipated to have far-reaching global implications. The former-future head of state has gained notoriety for his unpredictability and extreme populist promises. For instance, Donald Trump has already threatened to take control of the Panama Canal, revived discussions about purchasing Greenland, and intimidated Canada with potential annexation to the US. Furthermore, in the new year, renowned businessman Elon Musk is set to take a position in the administration of the elected president; he is also characterized by eccentricity and abrupt statements and actions. 

In Georgia, the ruling party Georgian Dream secured a majority in parliamentary elections in the autumn of 2024, despite accusations from the West of vote rigging, bribery, and the persecution of observers. Despite these challenges, Georgian Dream has decided to suspend negotiations for European Union membership until the end of 2028. Since then, protests in Tbilisi have persisted, and observers are assessing the potential for escalation and the duration of Georgia's strategic shift away from Western integration. The political crisis in the country is intensifying. 

It is also noteworthy that other regions have experienced situations that were sometimes wholly unanticipated. For instance, in South Africa, the African National Congress failed to secure a majority in the National Assembly for the first time since the end of apartheid. In Japan, the House of Representatives was dissolved early by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leading to parliamentary elections in October. Following the elections, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba acknowledged that his Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed the country for the majority of the post-World War II era, had received significant public criticism. In South Korea, the attempt to impose martial law in early December was also linked to the controversial results of a parliamentary election held earlier in the spring. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third consecutive term, though for the first time he did not attain a majority. Thus, the National Democratic Alliance of India had to support him.

Elections were also held in Russia in 2024. As expected, Vladimir Putin remained in power; there were no surprises or unexpected outcomes. He set a record for both absolute (76 million) and relative (87.28%) votes, becoming president for a fifth time and effectively marking a quarter-century in power by 2024. 

Concurrently, under Mr. Putin's leadership, Russia is entering an increasingly severe and ideologically motivated confrontation with the West, with discussions emerging about the possibility of war between Moscow and NATO. Many have expressed the hope that the new administration will lead to a de-escalation of tensions or, at the very least, the establishment of some form of compromise on key issues. However, this appears to be a rather optimistic outlook, given Putin's firmly held positions and Trump's reluctance to appear as someone who readily concedes to the Kremlin. Analysts predict that this dynamic may, in fact, result in heightened tensions. The contrasting styles of Trump, known for his impulsive decisions, and Putin, known for his ability to make unexpected decisions, do not appear to be a conducive environment for peace. 

The war in Ukraine is acquiring an increasing international dimension, potentially extending even into regions that Trump is particularly sensitive about. In the past year, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed an agreement on strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang, promising mutual assistance in case of aggression against either country. There have been claims that North Korea has begun sending troops to participate in combat operations in Ukraine. 

The Middle East

A significant development this year was the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, which dramatically altered the balance of power across the Middle East. Assad was ousted from power in December during an offensive by a Syrian opposition group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It is evident that the underlying cause of the ongoing situation in Syria is the ongoing confrontation between Iran and Israel. In 2024, Israel launched operations in Lebanon and Gaza against Hezbollah and Hamas, targeting and dismantling these groups' leadership and infrastructure. This strategic move effectively removed key links from the "axis of resistance," a term used to describe Iran's primary regional allies who support its influence in the Islamic world. 

The ongoing events in Syria have dealt a significant blow to Iran's regional influence. IDF forces entered the Golan Heights territory. In a joint effort with the U.S., Israel took action against the Houthi movement Ansar Allah, a Shiite armed group that controls significant territories in Yemen and has been attempting to take control over maritime transport situations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also joined forces to overthrow the Houthi regime. 

In the context of these developments, the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran has reached a critical point, with global implications. The outcome of this ongoing confrontation, specifically the recent exchange of rocket attacks, currently favours Israel. According to assessments by various experts, Tehran appears reluctant to engage in direct warfare with Israel. In 2024, Iran held early presidential elections following the death of Ibrahim Raisi on May 19 due to a helicopter crash. Raisi, 63, was seen by many as a potential successor to the aging Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. In addition to concerns about succession, Iran faces internal socio-economic challenges and therefore prefers not to engage in destructive external conflict. 

Increased pressure from external forces might prompt Iran to pursue nuclear armament, a move that could reshape regional power dynamics. The intricate web of contradictions affecting Arab interests, Turks, Iranians, Kurds, Jews—coupled with centuries-old tensions between Shiite and Sunni factions and the interests of external players—continues to complicate the situation. 

2025: No Hopes for Tranquillity

In light of these developments, it is reasonable to expect that the internal and international policies of 2025 will be significantly influenced by ongoing conflicts (as long as these conflicts persist) and economic instability (with the primary concern being the prevention of unforeseen events with the potential to trigger a global crisis). 

The International Monetary Fund anticipates "stable but unsatisfactory" economic growth for 2025. The upcoming year is expected to be filled with heated rhetoric regarding trade issues as well as numerous threats—including those from Trump directed at his own allies. 

Notably, forecasts also indicate potential uncertainty in 2025 surrounding the rapid development of artificial intelligence, which is increasingly intervening in politics, economics, culture, and education.