SEPARATION LINE

Despite the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan being regarded as one of the most volatile regions globally, the area experienced a prolonged period without conflict. However, there has recently been a significant shift in this dynamic.

Durand's Troubled Line

In the final days of December 2024, the border conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated, triggered by an incident that occurred back in March. This incident involved the detonation of a truck bomb and an exchange of gunfire between militants and Pakistani soldiers stationed at a border post. In response, the Pakistan Air Force conducted two airstrikes in the eastern Afghan border provinces of Khost and Paktika. In response, the Afghan Armed Forces targeted Pakistani positions along the border. By March, the situation had stabilised as both sides simply ceased responding to each other's actions.

However, in December, the conflict escalated once more. Political analysts monitoring Afghan-Pakistani relations are convinced that these events are not coincidental. The border established in 1893 by Mortimer Durand between Afghanistan and British India served the interests of the British Empire. Today, this border divides the region inhabited by Pashtun tribes and separates the local populations between the two countries, resulting in severe socio-economic challenges for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The border region has become a focal point for terrorist groups, contributing to heightened tensions and perpetuating enmity between the two nations.

The Durand Line stretches from the Pamirs in the north to the Arabian Sea in the south, covering 2,430 kilometres. It originates in the snow-capped mountains in the north, traverses the fertile midlands, and extends into the dry and barren south. A distinctive feature of this border confrontation is that, as it was demarcated not by local ethnic tribes but by colonial powers, its inviolability cannot be genuinely claimed by any party. The framework established by nineteenth-century imperial agreements is no longer adequate to address current realities. Furthermore, many high-ranking officials in both Pakistan and Afghanistan express not only a denial of the need to honour colonial legacies but also criticism of contemporary international law, which they view as a Western construct.

Unstable Region

The renewed border conflict erupted at a time when regional dynamics were shifting due to some players weakening while others gained strength. The recent incident was triggered by Afghan troops providing fire support to Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants targeting Pakistani posts. Afghan Defence Ministry spokesman Enayatullah Khowarazmi specified that the strikes were directed at territories controlled by Pakistani authorities that Kabul does not recognize as belonging to Pakistan.

The TTP, which Islamabad claims has sought refuge in Afghanistan, poses a significant threat to Pakistan. Its stated objective is to alter the constitutional order within Pakistan and establish a government similar to that of Afghanistan. Over time, Islamabad has sought to dismantle the TTP's infrastructure in an effort to weaken its resistance, though this has become increasingly challenging. The militants are not only hiding in remote mountainous areas within Afghan territory but have also developed an effective network of fortifications equipped with necessary weapons and communication systems with support from the Afghan side.

Reports from Pakistani defence sources indicate that military airstrikes have been conducted in Afghanistan's Paktika province, which borders Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal district. These strikes targeted hideouts where TTP militants had taken refuge. However, the Taliban government has accused Pakistan of killing at least 46 civilians, including women and children. In response, the Afghan government has vowed to take retaliatory action. On New Year's Eve, Afghan Taliban forces claimed they had struck "several locations" near the Durand Line.

As the gunfire from both sides subsides, questions arise: What is to be the next course of action between these two neighbouring parties? Should we expect further escalation? It is important to note that Pakistan has long been regarded as a patron of the Afghan Taliban since their rise to power in 1996. It was widely believed that Pakistan wielded significant influence over the group by providing a safe haven, funding, and diplomatic support.

The Boomerang Method

Following the US invasion of Afghanistan in the early 2000s, many Afghan Taliban leaders sought refuge in Pakistan. In response to U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan's border regions in 2007, the TTP—often referred to as the Pakistani Taliban—emerged. Despite ideological ties with the Afghan Taliban, the TTP launched a brutal campaign against the Pakistani state. In response, the Pakistani military undertook several operations aimed at eliminating the TTP, leading many of its leaders to flee into Afghanistan. When the Afghan Taliban regained control of Kabul in 2021, Pakistan hoped to leverage its historical ties to contain the TTP. However, a recent escalation in attacks within Pakistan suggests that these efforts have not been successful.

Analysts have suggested that the Afghan Taliban may face considerable challenges in confronting both the TTP and groups like Wilayat Khorasan, which is known to be affiliated with ISIS. There is speculation that maintaining simmering confrontations serves both governments' interests, even if public discourse suggests further escalation could lead to open conflict. Currently, neither side can afford full-scale warfare. The exchange of attacks is viewed as a form of dialogue intended to define red lines and shape upcoming negotiations.

The most recent airstrikes coincided with the visit of Mohammad Sadiq, Pakistan's special envoy to Afghanistan. During his visit to Kabul, Mr Sadiq held discussions with senior Afghan officials. Over the past two years, intensive diplomatic dialogue has taken place between the two sides, including visits from Pakistan's defence minister and chief of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to Kabul last February, as well as a trip by acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaki to Islamabad for talks with General Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief.

Despite efforts to stabilise conditions along their shared border, levels of escalation remain high. According to Pakistan's Interior Ministry, at least 924 individuals were killed in more than 1,500 incidents during the first ten months of 2024, including 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians. The Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies reported 856 incidents of TTP attacks last year, significantly higher than the 645 incidents reported in 2023. This ongoing situation indicates the potential for a latent border war between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which occasionally flares up, resulting in increased casualties.

No Big War Expected

The Afghan Taliban's desire for international recognition may act as a brake on rising border tensions. The conflict with Pakistan could be perceived as a reflection of the aggressive ambitions of the new Kabul authorities and could reinforce perceptions of them as a terrorist government. Afghanistan is actively seeking closer ties with China, a key ally of Pakistan, which has also motivated it to exercise restraint in its dealings with its southern neighbour.

It is evident that military intervention is unlikely to resolve the situation. One potential avenue for reconciliation may involve Islamabad reconsidering its doctrine of "strategic depth" concerning Afghanistan. Historically, the Pakistani military has sought to maintain influence over Afghanistan by supporting armed groups. By ensuring its influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan seeks leverage against India – its traditional adversary.

However, the use of groups such as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan as a tool against India has had unintended consequences, with Pakistan now facing the consequences of the destructive forces it once fostered. This approach, effectively treating Afghanistan as a pawn in its rivalry with India, has eroded Pakistan's credibility among Afghans.

In an effort to address these controversies, Zahra Baloch, spokesperson for the Pakistani Foreign Office, has categorically dismissed reports on social media about Islamabad escalating tensions and expanding war zones. She emphasised Pakistan's desire for amicable relations with all neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan, and highlighted ongoing dialogues between Islamabad and Kabul.

When asked about attacks by Afghan security forces across the Durand Line, she stated that Pakistan would continue its discussions with the Afghan government on all aspects of bilateral relations, including border issues. On the matter of airstrikes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border late last year, she clarified that these operations were conducted solely to counter terrorist threats.

"Any terrorists attempting to infiltrate into Pakistani territory will face a robust response. Our forces are fully prepared to defend our territory's sovereignty," she asserted.