TRUMP'S CANADIAN AFFAIR

Towards the end of last year, the US President-elect, Donald Trump, surprised many with his suggestion that Canada might become the 51st US state. This unexpected statement understandably caused concern in Canada. The interests of the new American administration extend well beyond the borders of Canada. According to reports from US media outlets, following his electoral victory, Trump is contemplating the potential acquisition of the Panama Canal and Greenland.

The prospect of seizing Canada or Greenland would inevitably lead to an open conflict with serious repercussions, and such a development is certainly unlikely today. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's statements, which resonate with public sentiment, may indicate the intentions of certain political circles in the United States to gain control over the mentioned territories. These groups are likely to foresee the direction of US behaviour in the event that the international security system, currently undergoing significant changes, is fundamentally disrupted.

A deterioration in international relations and various states' claims to neighbouring territories could ultimately lead to a global redrawing of the world map. In such a scenario, the United States will promote its interests, which, in principle, it is already doing by making its position known publicly. President-elect Trump has indicated a potential for American territorial expansion on a scale that could rival significant historical events, such as the Louisiana Purchase and the Alaska Purchase.

Each of these topics has its own origins, distinct from one another. For instance, the apparent discord between President Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may also underlie the demands placed on Canada. Just weeks ago, during a meeting with Trudeau, Trump threatened that Canada could become the 51st US state if Ottawa did not address illegal migration and drug smuggling. This statement caused a decrease in the Canadian prime minister's popularity and led to the possibility of a no-confidence vote in parliament. The initiative has been taken by Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democratic Party, who was previously a loyal supporter of Trudeau. Singh has committed his party to voting for the dismissal of the government in 2025.

The US president-elect has maintained a strained relationship with the Canadian prime minister. During Trump's first presidential term, there were several instances of him criticising Trudeau's customs policy towards the United States. This tension reached a boiling point during the G7 summit hosted by Ottawa, where Donald Trump accused Trudeau of lying during his speech at the post-summit press conference and announced that the US would not endorse the final communiqué of the meeting.

He stated that due to Justin's inaccurate statements during his press conference and Canada's imposition of substantial tariffs on American farmers, workers, and companies, he had instructed U.S. representatives not to endorse the communiqué. "Justin Trudeau adopted a submissive demeanour during the G7 meetings, only to deliver a press conference after my departure and assert that 'the U.S. duties were somewhat insulting' and that he 'will not allow himself to be mistreated,'" Trump continued. He described this behaviour as "very dishonest and weak" on the part of the Canadian politician. He went on to highlight that the tariffs imposed by the US on dairy products from Canada stand at 270 percent.

A month later, he declined to meet with Trudeau on a one-to-one basis at the UN General Assembly. He cited ongoing bilateral negotiations regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he said were progressing poorly, and stated that the US was dissatisfied with Canada's negotiators. In December 2019, Trump took to social media to taunt Canada's prime minister over the alleged decision of the Canadian public broadcaster to edit part of a film featuring his cameo in Home Alone 2: Lost in New York. Trump appears in one scene where he converses with actor Macaulay Culkin at the New York Plaza Hotel.

According to media reports, while vacationing at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, the President tweeted, "Guess Justin T. doesn't really like me making him pay for NATO or trade! Film will never be the same! (Just kidding)." When Trump's rival Joe Biden won the next US presidential election in 2020, Trudeau was among those politicians who celebrated the outcome. The outgoing American president and Trudeau had developed a close relationship. He openly campaigned for Biden's victory and later for the election of Kamala Harris as vice president. Trump was well aware of all this, and given the character of the 47th (45th) president of the United States, it would be peculiar to expect anything different from him.

Consequently, many politicians, including his allies, have begun openly discussing Trudeau's early resignation, recognising the negative consequences for Canadian foreign and domestic policy arising from his continued leadership. Trudeau's announcement on January 6, accepting the futility of resisting this reality, was that he would resign as head of the ruling Liberal Party but would remain in office until they chose a new leader. This development represents a significant turning point in Canadian history, and some have suggested that it was influenced by Trump's actions.

Recently, Trump has placed significant emphasis on the importance of Greenland and the Panama Canal to the national security of the United States. In doing so, he has openly advocated for regaining control of the canal from Panama and acquiring Greenland from Denmark. It has been noted that both Greenland and the Panama Canal are highly vulnerable to climate change, which poses a significant challenge to both regions.

Due to warming over the last three decades, approximately 30,000 square kilometres of Greenland's ice sheet and glaciers have melted, an area larger than the US state of Massachusetts. A complete melt of the Greenland ice sheet could result in a sea level rise of 7 meters. The retreat of Greenland's ice could create opportunities for oil and gas drilling, as well as for extracting critical minerals. This has already attracted international attention and raised concerns regarding environmental damage. Furthermore, possession of Greenland would enhance the U.S. position in the Arctic, where competition is currently intensifying. In addition to the Arctic states, other interested parties such as China and Japan are also involved.

According to a report by the Arctic Council, shipping intensity in the Arctic has increased by 37 per cent over the past decade due to reductions in sea ice thickness and coverage. Demonstrating significant interest in a new route through the Arctic, China and Russia agreed in November 2024 to collaborate on developing Arctic shipping routes. Further ice melt could create even more trade routes, helping to establish the Arctic as a critical transport corridor of global significance.

The new US administration's intentions regarding Greenland may also be reflected in Denmark's reaction. In early January, Copenhagen decided to change its royal coat of arms, which may be directly related to Trump's comments about acquiring Greenland for the United States. The previous royal coat of arms of Denmark featured three crowns for 500 years, symbolising the Kalmar Union between Denmark, Norway and Sweden (1397-1523). In the new version, these crowns have been removed from their traditional position on the third field of the centre shield. Instead, enlarged depictions of a polar bear and a silver ram, representing Greenland and the Faroe Islands respectively, now occupy the second and third fields.

Climate change is fuelling Washington's interest not only in Greenland but may also explain Trump's focus on the Panama Canal. The canal saves ships from travelling thousands of kilometres around Cape Horn at South America's southern tip. However, in 2023, prolonged drought caused widespread disruption in shipping through the canal. The water level in Lake Gatun—the canal's primary hydrological reserve—fell to historic lows, prompting authorities to reduce traffic intensity through the canal to conserve fresh water.

Consequently, ships faced weeks-long waits to cross, threatening domino effects across supply chains. Scientists have determined changes in the transatlantic El Niño current as a direct cause. Experts indicate that climate change can prolong dry periods and elevate temperatures in this region. Therefore, to ensure sufficient fresh water levels in Lake Gatun, canal authorities have proposed a $1.6 billion project to build a dam on a nearby river. However, this initiative is unlikely to serve as a complete solution for addressing canal issues; its lock system faces escalating threats from rising sea levels that could lead to flooding and bank erosion.

The Panamanian government will need to absorb increasing operating costs for managing the canal under these circumstances. Yet over time, given its financial situation, this will become increasingly challenging. Trump has hinted that his country could take on some financial burdens associated with operating the canal while voicing his initiatives.

Meanwhile, significant obstacles stand in Trump's way regarding these ambitions. Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino has ruled out any discussions about canal control with Trump. Additionally, Greenland's Prime Minister Múte B. Egede stated that the island—an autonomous territory of Denmark—is "not for sale and will never be for sale."

The responses from ruling circles in Panama and Greenland were quite expected. The crucial aspect remains that ownership claims were made—not by just anyone—but by the leader of the United States; someone who has recently taken office. This indicates that this story will continue unfolding.