TURNING POINT

December 25, 2024 has the potential to be remembered as a significant turning point in the political landscape of southern Eurasia, particularly regarding the relationship between Moscow and Baku. The tragic incident involving the Baku-Grozny flight could challenge many established political constructs, especially in how they are perceived by the public.

Shocking Details

On December 25, an Embraer 190 aircraft operating flight J28243 from Baku to Grozny took off from Heydar Aliyev International Airport, Azerbaijan's primary air hub. There were 62 passengers and five crew members on board, consisting of two pilots and three flight attendants. The estimated flight duration from Baku to Grozny was approximately one hour.

However, difficulties were encountered during the approach. Conditions in Grozny were foggy, necessitating an instrument landing. However, the Embraer pilots reported that their navigation system had malfunctioned. It was later revealed that Grozny airport was preparing to counter a drone attack and had activated its electronic warfare systems as part of the countermeasure plan. For reasons unknown, the pilots were not informed of this. During the third landing attempt, the aircraft was struck on the fuselage. Passengers and flight attendants reported that the fuselage had been breached, resulting in injuries to one flight attendant and at least one female passenger.

Further details of great concern were revealed at a later point. These systems had been designed to interfere with the aircraft's communications and navigation in order to counter drones. Additionally, the air defence system engaged the drones. Reports indicate that one Pantsir anti-aircraft missile and cannon system identified the Azerbaijani aircraft as a civilian flight but missed it, while a second system launched two missiles at it.

Transcripts of the pilots' communications with air traffic controllers later surfaced, but these only served to exacerbate the confusion. The identity of the individual who authorised the flight across the Caspian Sea to Aktau in Kazakhstan, a distance of 800 kilometres, when closer airports in Makhachkala, Mineralnye Vody, and Nalchik were available, remains unclear. Many experts suspect that Russian air defence personnel and air traffic controllers may be trying to cover their tracks, perhaps hoping that the damaged aircraft would not make it to Aktau, allowing the sea to conceal the incident's details.

The pilots of the stricken aircraft defied the odds by reaching the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. This feat is regarded by experts as nothing short of a miracle. The aircraft was nearly uncontrollable; hydraulic systems were failing, and both navigation and communication systems were inoperative. Nevertheless, Captain Igor Kshnyakin and First Officer Alexander Kalyaninov successfully navigated the aircraft to the shore, achieving the seemingly impossible. Their actions ensured the survival of 29 individuals, while 38 others, including the pilots, did not survive. They were fully aware that their chances of survival were slim. Tragically, one of the flight attendants, Hokuma Aliyeva, who remained with passengers until the end, also perished. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev posthumously awarded the title National Hero of Azerbaijan to the deceased crew members, as per a presidential decree. The two surviving flight attendants were awarded the Rashadat (Courage) Order.

Aviation and Political Disaster

It is perhaps prudent to await the conclusion of the investigation before reaching any definitive conclusions. However, the political ramifications of the crash became apparent almost immediately. On December 25, President Ilham Aliyev was en route to Russia for a working visit, attending an informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg. However, upon learning of the crash, he turned his plane around and returned to Baku. His first conversation was with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed condolences to the victims' families.

Shortly afterwards, images of the wreckage appeared in the media, clearly showing significant damage to the tail – an obvious indication that it had been hit by an anti-aircraft missile, most likely from a Pantsir system. Given its proximity to Grozny, it was deduced that the aircraft must have been Russian-made. Official Russian entities circulated theories that President Aliyev would later label absurd. Initially, Rosaviatsia released a statement claiming that the aircraft had collided with a flock of birds. Subsequently, Interfax reported potential technical malfunctions. According to sources from the Rostov Air Traffic Control Centre, another theory suggested that a gas cylinder had exploded on board. Moscow has not yet accepted responsibility or apologised to Azerbaijan, nor has it initiated an investigation, actions that have understandably led to anger in Baku. Consequently, Azerbaijan adopted a firm stance toward Russia. President Aliyev has issued several strong statements on the matter, including the following: "I can confidently state that representatives of the Russian Federation bear responsibility for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in this disaster," he declared during a meeting with relatives of victims and flight attendants. He went on to state that his country's demands included justice, accountability for those responsible, transparency and humane treatment.

Baku insists that Russia not only express regret but also acknowledge its responsibility for the incident involving the Azerbaijani civilian aircraft. It seeks a transparent investigation and accountability for those involved, as well as financial compensation for the families of the deceased and injured. In contrast to the assistance initially suggested by Chechnya's leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, Baku is pursuing compensation claims.

However, this issue remains unresolved; Russia has not issued an apology, and the media has included offensive remarks about the Azerbaijani leadership. Baku has expressed its expectation that such behaviour is not acceptable with regard to the leadership of a friendly nation. Azerbaijan is currently awaiting a response to this regrettable behaviour.

Next Steps in the Baku-Moscow Relations

Even prior to the plane crash, experts were discussing the strengthening of ties between Baku and Moscow. The focus was on President Ilham Aliyev's interview with Russian television host Dmitry Kiselev, where he expressed strong criticism of Western policies towards Baku. In 2022, a Declaration of Allied Cooperation was signed between the two countries. Following a prolonged hiatus, Vladimir Putin visited Azerbaijan in 2024. Consequently, the sharp criticism directed by Aliyev towards the Russian authorities came as a surprise to many, as such remarks from the Azerbaijani President were not anticipated.

The rationale behind this is clear: Aliyev's foreign policy is not aligned with any particular bloc, whether Western, Russian or European; it is fundamentally pro-Azerbaijani. Azerbaijan does not compromise its national sovereignty, nor does it outsource its foreign policy or sacrifice its national interests for external approval.

Azerbaijan is currently awaiting answers to several crucial questions, including the reasons why Russia failed to close its airspace during the defence operation in Grozny. Why was the Azerbaijani aircraft not informed about this "anti-aircraft operation"? These are fundamental protocols in civil aviation – why were they disregarded in the case of an AZAL passenger plane? In this matter, silence is not golden.

The adverse effects of this negligence are already evident: Azerbaijan has refused to allow the crash investigation to be conducted by the Interstate Aviation Committee due to a lack of confidence in its objectivity. This has significantly eroded trust in Russia.

Did Moscow have an opportunity to avert this crisis? There is a high probability that this was indeed the case. Had the Azerbaijani aircraft adhered to established flight safety protocols, this tragedy might have been avoided. President Ilham Aliyev has remarked on this point. Furthermore, a prompt landing at one of the nearest airports before hydraulic failure could have saved numerous lives on board and possibly prevented casualties altogether. A timely apology accompanied by an admission of responsibility and initiation of a comprehensive investigation would certainly have mitigated potential political fallout.

In this context, Azerbaijan recalls two notable incidents: On November 10, during the final hours of a 44-day conflict, Azerbaijani air defence shot down a helicopter executing dangerous manoeuvres near Azerbaijani positions; it turned out to be Russian-operated. Within hours, Baku accepted responsibility, issued an apology, and launched an investigation into the incident.

A second incident occurred during anti-terror operations in September 2023, when several Russian peacekeepers were killed. In response, Azerbaijan immediately informed the Russian command and advised the peacekeepers to remain at their bases due to their reckless behaviour near Azerbaijani positions without proper identification markings, which resulted in them coming under fire. In both cases, Azerbaijan offered an immediate apology and accepted responsibility, while also launching an investigation. Those found to be responsible were subject to disciplinary action, including suspension and detention.

While the two incidents are very different from the anti-aircraft missile targeting a civilian aircraft landing at an airport on schedule, Azerbaijan has consistently chosen to take a course of action that avoids complications and prevents serious crises in relations. However, as Moscow continues to delay adopting a constructive approach, it becomes increasingly challenging to prevent negative consequences.