BIG POLITICS

For centuries, people have sought prophecies in literature and the works of renowned figures. In the East, divinations were made using Hafiz’s book of poems. In modern times, predictions have been found in Tom Clancy novels and even the animated series The Simpsons.

The American feature film Under Fire (1983) was never explicitly declared prophetic. Yet one of its characters utters a remarkable phrase: "The world is no longer divided into East and West — it is divided into North and South." The film narrates events surrounding the fall of Somoza's dictatorship in Nicaragua in 1979. However, this phrase about a world divided into North and South has proven truly prophetic.

In an interview with the Xinhua agency before his visit to China, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated: "…Being part of the Global South, we have always defended its interests. From 2019 to 2023, Azerbaijan chaired the Non-Aligned Movement, the second largest international organisation after the UN. During this period, our chairmanship undertook systematic efforts to raise the role and status of this important platform uniting countries of the Global South. One of our ideas under the COP29 chairmanship was to build stronger bridges between the Global South and Global North. Today, Asia, Africa and Latin America — together forming the Global South — comprise nearly two-thirds of UN member states, accounting for around 80% of the world’s population, approximately 50% of global GDP and about half of total international trade volume. The participation of the Global South in constructing a more sustainable, just and secure world order is a natural process."

Behind sophisticated protocols

On April 22, President Ilham Aliyev paid a state visit to China. It is well known that visits differ in political and protocol significance: they may be private, working or official; a state visit is the most solemn. Diplomats often say there are no minor details in protocol. The fact that the Azerbaijani President visited China with a state visit signals the high priority both Baku and Beijing assign to developing bilateral relations.

The list of agreements reached is impressive. Baku and Beijing signed accords on constructing several solar power plants in Azerbaijan, including floating ones. Recall that Azerbaijan hosted the prestigious COP29 climate summit in autumn 2024, where it proposed several important initiatives in this sector. Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly emphasised the significant potential of solar and wind energy, including in the Caspian Sea region. Cooperation agreements were also concluded between Azerbaijan's Yeni Azerbaijan Party and China’s Communist Party.

Visa regulations are being eased to promote a sharp increase in tourism. Experts note that global tourism growth today is largely driven by Chinese citizens enabled by reform policies to travel long distances. Joint economic projects are under discussion as well. Naturally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Azerbaijan’s revived Silk Road project are central to collaboration.

Another sphere of cooperation is the military-industrial complex (MIC). Azerbaijan is developing its domestic arms industry while China has much to offer. Baku has already expressed interest in Chinese-Pakistani fighter jets. Previously, with Azerbaijani financial support and cooperation between Belarusian and Chinese MICs, Polonez missile systems were developed and modernised — systems later acquired by Baku. There is no doubt that fruitful cooperation can continue here.

It is worth noting that Azerbaijan firmly supported the One China policy, condemning Taiwanese separatism. Furthermore, Ilham Aliyev and Xi Jinping signed a Joint Statement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the PRC on Establishing a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Last year Azerbaijan participated in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana. It was then that experts first spoke openly about Azerbaijan’s geopolitical choice favouring China—an announcement that shocked many.

The Second Superpower

China ranks among the largest countries globally by territory, population and resources. It possesses enormous economic, technological and investment potential. The idea that China might soon become the world's second or even first superpower emerged at the time when the world first heard about the so-called Chinese miracle. Initially, global Northern economists dismissed it as merely "assembly line work," cheap labour and a weak yuan—factors convenient for Western manufacturers outsourcing production cycles to China. Yet they insisted that technologically China would remain a "paper tiger" for a long time.

Today, such condescension has vanished. China is moving away from simple assembly jobs, changing economic concepts and models while continuing economic growth—albeit no longer at double-digit rates but without signs of destructive crisis. Moreover, Beijing managed to emerge relatively unscathed from the "trade war" declared by US President Donald Trump.

It was expected that at some stage China would convert economic success into political influence. Initially, experts tracked rising political tensions around Taiwan, activities at the Spratly archipelago and in the South China Sea. Beijing's assertiveness in these regions alarmed Washington, which openly pledged to "preserve freedom of navigation" there—not allowing China to build military bases or airstrips on islands.

Predictions of a series of local conflicts along China's maritime borders did not materialise. China knows how to "play the long game." Military exercises around Taiwan continue regularly but other areas remain quiet. Meanwhile, Beijing actively expands influence across the post-Soviet space.

The Third Centre of Power

After the USSR collapsed, international experts saw two main options for newly independent states’ foreign policies: align entirely with Moscow preserving traditional ties or rapidly turn Westward. However, excluding Baltic states, the West was reluctant to fully embrace new independent states.

Ilham Aliyev’s visit to China breaks this binary scheme: on the post-Soviet map emerges a "third centre of influence"—China.

Initially, Beijing built influence mainly in neighbouring Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. But a political breakthrough between Baku and Beijing is now changing this geography profoundly. Azerbaijan shares no border with China; it lies west of the Caspian Sea where Chinese influence was previously minimal. Experts assumed China would only sell assembly products here while political moves would follow Russia’s lead as junior partner.

Now Beijing plays an independent—and highly successful—political role.

Traditional external actors had their own influence tools: The European Union offered Eastern Partnership programmes; Russia promoted integration projects such as CIS, CSTO and Eurasian Union… Recently emerged an additional player: the Union State comprising Russia and Belarus with hints from Moscow about other post-Soviet states joining this "Eurasian macrostate." So far unofficially voiced by ideologists like Alexander Dugin but nevertheless explicit.

The US never proposed integration projects but wielded influence via USAID with billion-dollar budgets supporting grant programmes.

China lacked similar instruments. Organisations like SCO and BRICS are interstate cooperation frameworks but not integration projects; likewise, BRI is economic and logistical rather than integrative.

Yet this absence proves an advantage for Chinese influence: Beijing does not seek to reshape partner states’ foreign policies or impose "either us or NATO/EU/US/Türkiye" ultimatums; it neither demands Chinese as an official language nor promotes a "Chinese world" ideology. Unlike Western powers fixated on human rights issues or orchestrating colour revolutions, China avoids such meddling.

This lack of traditional instruments of influence turns out to be a major strength—technology and investments flow not only from West but also from East without accompanying political conditions or sovereignty compromises.

This recalls Mao Zedong’s famous phrase: "The East wind prevails over the West wind."