A NEW REALITY

This year's Davos forum, contrary to its true purpose, was more concentrated on discussing geopolitical problems. During the rare discussions dedicated to the global economic situation, the notes sounded were mostly those of pessimism and anxiety. The economic elite gathered at the World Economic Forum (WEF) effectively acknowledged a shift from efficiency-oriented globalisation to a model focused on resilience and the political compatibility of partners. This means the architecture of world trade will change structurally, not cyclically, in the coming years.

Between risks and adaptation

The final session of the forum featured a discussion on the economic challenges of the modern era, with insights from WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has described the ongoing situation as the most serious shocks to world trade for the last 80 years. She emphasised that even the demonstrated resilience of supply chains should not be misleading—fundamental changes are already irreversible.

Christine Lagarde's advice to forum participants was to "distinguish the signal from the noise". The ECB President stated that she does not observe the destruction of the world order (a concern voiced by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, among others), but notes its transformation. In her professional opinion, countries should place a greater emphasis on the quality of economic growth, innovation support and labour productivity.

Kristalina Georgieva, in turn, noted the potential of regional integration, the natural occurrence of change over many years, and the inevitability of new shocks. She made reference to the iconic line from The Wizard of Oz, "We're not in Kansas anymore," to imply that the sense of familiarity and predictability that we had previously taken for granted was now a thing of the past.

In essence, the key theme of the Davos discussions was that participants in global trade should refrain from immediate retaliation to every provocative statement or tariff threat from partners. Instead, a strategy of "cold-blooded adaptation" is proposed—a gradual restructuring of logistics, contractual links, and investment decisions to fit the new reality.

This approach seems especially relevant against the backdrop of US tariff initiatives and retaliatory measures from its trading partners. The constant shifting of benchmarks and market access conditions is already putting pressure on business expectations, investment activity, and consumer sentiment. Companies are forced to factor not only economic but also political risks into their business models, which increases project costs and lengthens payback periods.

Assessments from international organisations confirm it: the effect of instability is already reflected in the numbers. While in 2025 world trade showed relative resilience—growth was estimated at approximately 3.8%, largely due to accelerated shipments ahead of new barriers—in 2026, the pace of expansion is expected to slow to 2.2%. This refers to a situation where companies accelerated shipments in advance, built up inventories, and moved contracts, trying to "squeeze through" before restrictions came into force. Now this temporary support factor is being exhausted.

It is important that even amid growing protectionism and trade conflicts, global integration is not disappearing. The volume of trade in goods and services still exceeds half of global GDP. But its configuration is changing. Companies are diversifying supply chains, reducing dependence on a single region, developing alternative routes, and strengthening cooperation among developing countries. Increasingly, the focus is not on maximum efficiency, but on acceptable reliability.

An additional source of risk remains debt burdens and high borrowing costs in a number of economies, as well as weak investment dynamics. Expert surveys presented at the forum show a predominance of cautious and negative expectations. More than half of the world's leading economists predict a deterioration in the global economic climate this year. This means world trade will develop in an environment of reduced demand and increased sensitivity to any shocks—from geopolitics to energy and logistics prices.

The technological factor

Against this backdrop, regional integration is acquiring particular importance as one of the few stable sources of growth for trade flows. In Davos, it was repeatedly emphasised that regional blocs can partially compensate for global fragmentation. The closer we coordinate trade, investment, and industrial policy within regions, the more we can reduce uncertainty and create a more predictable environment for business.

Examples cited included rapidly growing linkages within Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf states. In this region, there is a strong focus on mutual trade, with significant growth in investments in infrastructure, energy, and digital services. Consequently, larger regional markets are emerging, demonstrating greater resilience to fluctuations in individual centres of power. In essence, this involves the establishment of multiple interconnected "hubs" of global trade, as opposed to a single, overarching system.

A particular emphasis was placed on the technological transformation of trade processes. The introduction of digital platforms, logistics automation, and the use of artificial intelligence in demand forecasting and supply chain management are becoming important compensating factors. Technologies can help to reduce costs, increase operational transparency, and respond faster to disruptions. The segment of digital and professional services, which is less sensitive to tariff barriers, is growing particularly quickly.

A structural shift is also occurring towards trade in services, including tourism, financial services, education and IT solutions. Ultimately, this segment has the potential to become a primary catalyst for the growth of international trade.

Overall, the discussions in Davos have concluded with a realistic and somewhat critical assessment: the previous model of hyper-globalisation, based solely on minimal costs and maximum speed, is no longer viable. The economies that will benefit are those investing in resilience—diversification of trade, regional links, technological modernisation, and institutional flexibility. The growth of world trade will likely become more moderate, but also—more qualitative and balanced in terms of risks.