IMMUNE SILENCE

In the current era, with its advances in technology such as neural networks, quantum computers and space tourism, it might be expected that childhood airborne infections would finally be a thing of the past. However, the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan's figures for January–May 2026 highlight a challenging reality.

In the initial five months of the year, there was a significant increase in the number of chickenpox cases, with 31,397 reported compared to 17,595 during the same period last year. However, a more significant issue has emerged: measles incidence has surged dramatically, from 10 to 127 cases. What is the reason for the sudden increase in numbers, which should ideally be trending towards zero? And what measures can be implemented to help society regain control of the epidemiological situation?

Malign consequences

Infection rates naturally fluctuate in cycles, but the current spike exposes deeper systemic problems. A common misconception about chickenpox is to treat it as a harmless “rite of passage” in childhood. The Varicella Zoster virus is highly contagious. Scientific evidence shows that if one infected person is present in a closed space, the chance of infecting a non-immune individual exceeds 90%. In children, the illness is usually mild, but in adults it can cause severe pneumonia and encephalitis, and decades later manifest painfully as shingles.

Measles is the uncontested champion among viral infections in terms of contagiousness. Its reproduction number ranges between 12 and 18. This means one infected person in an unvaccinated population can infect up to 18 others nearby, with the virus lingering in the air for hours after the patient has left the room.

A scientific fact: measles possesses a unique and alarming property—it causes a so-called immune amnesia. Research proves that the measles virus destroys between 20% and 50% of the antibodies accumulated by the body against other diseases. After recovering from measles, a person literally “forgets” their immune memory and becomes vulnerable again to influenza, pneumococcus and other infections previously fought off.

Why climbing figures?

The main reason for measles’ return and chickenpox’s resurgence is the thinning of so-called herd immunity. To contain chickenpox and prevent measles spread, immune coverage in society (vaccinated or recovered individuals) must be at least 95%.

Once this figure drops even to 90%, due to vaccine refusals, migration or delayed vaccinations, viruses instantly find opportunities. An outbreak with a hundredfold increase in cases is a classic sign that measles has found vulnerable groups in the population.

How to protect yourself?

In contrast to many other challenges, humanity does not need to start from scratch in this case. It is important to note that the only scientifically proven method of avoiding measles is through specific prevention, i.e. vaccination. First and foremost, individuals should check their own and their children's immunity status. In accordance with the national immunisation schedule, two vaccinations against measles, mumps and rubella are administered: the first at 12 months and the second at six years of age. If a child has missed a vaccination, it is important to visit a clinic as soon as possible.

Adults who do not recall having had measles or being vaccinated are advised to have a blood test for IgG antibodies to the measles virus. A high titre is indicative of reliable protection. In the absence of antibodies, vaccination is required, and this is usually administered in two doses at least one month apart.

In addition, there is emergency prophylaxis available. If confirmed contact with a measles patient occurs, a person has exactly 72 hours to receive an urgent vaccination. This either prevents illness or ensures that, should it occur, it passes in the mildest possible form. Public health is not an abstract concept; it is the sum of individual decisions. The rising numbers in State Statistics Committee reports serve as a delicate yet loud reminder that civilisation rests on collective responsibility, and the best protection against an invisible enemy is built in the doctor's office.