A DEAD-END ISSUE

The developments in Ukraine are seriously eroding the familiar and well-established picture of reality, however fake it may be. The first thing that catches the eye is total unsuitability of international mechanisms for resolving the crisis. The UN and the OSCE, as well as the entire international community through the agency of these organisations, increasingly demonstrate their weakness with every passing day. Evidently, they do not have any influence on the situation, and everything is decided at the level of a dialogue between the leaders (and their representatives) of the states involved, in the course of almost private meetings and telephone conversations. It is impossible not to notice practically complete absence of the voice of human rights organisations, which is strange for the area where civilians are being killed, where surely there is a shortage of, for example, health care for children and the elderly, where the infrastructure has been destroyed and reportedly there are thousands of refugees. Only human rights activists of Amnesty International decided to go into the grey zone of hostilities and their report is disappointing - both military and separatists are involved in the abductions and torture of people in the south-east of Ukraine. Evidence is presented in the report entitled "Kidnapping and torture in the east of Ukraine."

Another disappointing conclusion is that it is hard to escape in connection with the Ukraine crisis is complete information blackout, which is maintained despite all the modern means of information recording and transmission, a great number of television channels and the Internet. It is virtually impossible to distinguish between the truths and skilfully edited and censored lies. An adequate assessment is lost in a stream of controversial comments, the work of journalists is not properly secured by any of the parties, and the saddest thing is that the wearing of a reporter's badge does not guarantee safety. At the moment, nobody can tell the exact number of dead persons.

Finally, the pattern of carrying out modern warfare has become clear - it should be a local, glamorised war, impregnated with lie and perfectly "getting along" with the usual peaceful life. As it turned out, one part of a country may be a place for fighting, while the other may be unperturbed, quietly receiving tourists and conducting international cultural events. Public opinion gets adapted very quickly, the war becomes routine and fades into insignificance.

Thus, the Kiev authorities meticulously continue with the military operation in eastern Ukraine initiated in April. The consistent and uncompromising character of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) has borne fruit - the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are now under the control of Ukrainian security forces, which is a certain psychological turning point. It is reported that immediately after that the military began checking all residents in order to find out whether they cooperated with the self-proclaimed authorities. Ukrainian media also report about the distribution of humanitarian aid, food and water in the cities and towns in which the Ukrainian flag was hoisted again.

At the time the material went to press, Donetsk, which is called the last outpost of the leaders of the breakaway republics, was still in the hands of the rebels. And the battle for the city was unfolding in accordance with the true partisan scenario - serious earthwork, blowing up of railway bridges, and a skirmish while fighting for the airport. Kiev media reported that the rebels who retreated in the direction of Donetsk and Luhansk returned fire with rocket launchers, mortars and other heavy weapons. In turn, the rebels spoke about the shelling of cities and columns of refugees.

The situation at the Russia-Ukraine border remains tens, especially in the vicinity of the crossing points. Media reports say about mines flown over the border, explosions and shootings. Moscow lodged a protest with Kiev because of the shelling of the Russian territory and threatened that Kiev would be held responsible in the case of reoccurrence of such incidents. It was not reported, however, how Russia would respond if such an incident would reoccur.

It is noteworthy that the liberated Slovyansk was visited by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. During his press conference, he expressed willingness to carry out a dialogue with all representatives of the south-east of the country which were ready to cease fire, and then he explained why such a dialogue had not been started. Poroshenko said that one of the militia leaders was in Moscow (Boroday), another leader (Pushilin) was in Moscow too, while Bolotov was on a "bout for the fourth day running." Therefore, there was nobody to negotiate with. Poroshenko also said that consultations should be "resumed with the true masters of Donbas - metallurgists, miners, i.e. people who wield the greatest power today, but have been subdued by force of arms." As reported by the BBC, in a conversation with US Vice President Joseph Biden, Poroshenko stated that "numerous ways" proposed by Kiev to resolve the conflict in the east of Ukraine had been rejected by either Russia or separatists.

In contrast to Bolotov, European leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin seem to remain cool-headed and understand the need for negotiations, but are still unable to reach an agreement that could immediately be translated into reality. It is reported that Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande discussed the current situation on the phone and spoke for a meeting of the contact group on the situation in the south-east of Ukraine with the participation of representatives of the protest regions.

Consequently, the situation just goes in a circle. Any attack on one of the parties is countered with a comparable response. Thus, Moscow's Basmanny District Court sanctioned the arrest in absentia of Arsen Avakov, Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, and Ihor Kolomoyskyi, governor of Dnipropetrovsk Region, who were charged with a number of serious crimes. In turn, the Ukrainian Helsinki Union applied to the European Court of Human Rights regarding the abduction and torture of hostages by Slovyansk militants linked to Russia. Whereas Ukrainians claim that the majority of those fighting in the Donbas are Russian citizens, many people in the Russian Federation are convinced that Ukrainian troops actively use the services of American mercenaries.

As a result, while speaking about peace, Kiev remains to be oriented towards a military solution of the problem of south-eastern Ukraine. Where this will lead the country whose economy is literally moribund is easy to predict. Poroshenko has even said that cuts in financing of "useless" research programs are under discussion with the available funds to be channelled to increasing the volume of production of weapons. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk admitted that Ukraine might lose significant volumes of crops this year due to a special operation carried out by security forces in the east of the country. However, earlier that same Yatsenyuk was very convincing in telling about the ability of the country to become a major player in the global food market. In this respect, Kiev seems to rely on the assistance of the United States. Negotiations have begun on the development of Ukraine's agro-industrial complex, in particular, on supplying Ukraine with American agricultural machinery as well as on joint control over the global market of ... corn. The Americans also promised to help in the reconstruction of the Donbas.

However, looking ahead in the short term, Ukraine is going to be faced - not with rich maize fields, but with quite cold winter. Therefore, already now, in the midst of summer, both politicians and pundits think about the sub-zero temperatures and snowstorms, and that this cold factor is going to heat up the gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Kremlin is convinced that in autumn, Kiev will begin to illegally bleed off gas from the transit pipeline on the territory of Ukraine, which supplies gas to Europe. Therefore, it is important for Moscow to acquire ways to bypass Ukraine with the help of the South Stream gas pipeline as soon as possible. Gazprom has finally managed to sign a contract with Serbia. There, the Russian gas monopoly is going to build two branches: one running to Croatia, the other - to Macedonia instead of Bulgaria, through which South Stream was planned to be routed initially. Italy has once again showed its interest in South Stream.

It is absolutely clear that now Russia is extremely unwilling to bring upon itself even more sanctions. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, Russia has sufficient reserves to cover most of the possible economic losses in the short and medium term. However, "in the longer term, sanctions could have a significant impact resulting in lower fiscal sustainability as well as deteriorated conditions and reduced opportunities for modernisation under the restriction of imports of technology, investment and best practices." Nevertheless, the EU is actively discussing the introduction of so-called "sectoral" sanctions against Russia. Currently, the EU sanctions have affected more than 60 Russian and Ukrainian citizens who have made, according to European diplomats, personal contribution to provoking the crisis.

Against this background, Western observers do no cease to be surprised at Putin's strange silence and acquiescence. They are not to be appeased even by the fact that the head of the Kremlin requested the parliament of the Russian Federation to annul his right to use military force in the territory of Ukraine, which had been issued to him previously. Most often, this is explained by the fact that Moscow is keen to avoid direct involvement in a military conflict in Ukraine. It is not quite clear, however, why the forces that allegedly oppose Russia should use for this purpose the events in the southeast, whereas Moscow can easily be "hooked-up" through the Crimea. No need to say what would happen if the Ukrainian army would set off to the peninsula to bring it back under the Ukrainian banner? However, observers also note that the Russian president has repeatedly behaved in this way - first he seemingly retreated, then made some unexpected move. If anything, Putin has succeeded in one thing - the West ostensibly cannot understand what Moscow wants. It came to the point where the Western media began to accuse Russia of things for which Russia had always been blaming the Americans and Europeans - double standards and new methods of warfare. It is when you kind of participate in a war and kind of not; when "subversive operations" are combined with counterattacks and conversion of opponents in the information sphere controlled by an army of bloggers and thousands of paid trolls.

The Ukrainian events have already been called by many a phase of another global battle for repartition of the world. So, after some time - following a series of moves by Russia and the West, either perceived or completely unexpected - we will be presented a new patched-up picture of reality. It is unlikely to be more fair or better than the previous one in any respect. Just the poles of power and influence will be slightly shifted.