NEXT STAGE OF THE "BIG GAME"

News about further government perturbations in Kiev did not surprise anyone. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned allegedly in connection with the collapse of the ruling European Choice coalition, which the UDAR and Freedom factions quit. Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman has been appointed acting premier. The collapse of the coalition occurred with the ultimate aim of ensuring the dissolution of the Ukrainian parliament and holding new elections. It seems that the political forces of Ukraine decided to enter into a zone of a special "technical" state when everything has a temporary nature and no one but the president bears full responsibility for the decisions that are taken. But, apparently, it is Petro Poroshenko who actively supports this scenario, and he is doing this not only because "the parliament must bear political responsibility".

In fact, the president clearly wants to get rid of Tymoshenko's people - former Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and Parliament Speaker Turchynov, finally liquidate the Communist Party of Ukraine and the Party of Regions and bring his own party into the game. The presidential party will be ready to forge a coalition with UDAR and Freedom in order to meet the winter by building on the interests of Western Ukraine, Kiev, and major businesses. The question is whether Poroshenko will endure by that time, and even if he does, in what state?

And does this reshuffle not open the way for a new Maidan and for Yulia Tymoshenko, who is suspiciously quiet right now? Representatives of the Fatherland faction (which is actually already in opposition) believe that the collapse of the coalition means failure in making important decisions - on the financing of the army and changes to the state budget, which is necessary for getting another IMF tranche. According to Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak, from 1 August there will be no money to pay the Ukrainian military. The "anti-terrorist operation" costs the budget 1.5bn hryvnias (96m euros) per month. Previously, to find money to fund the ATO, President Poroshenko sharply reduced spending on scientific activities. And with the signing of the law on partial mobilization, which is explained by the spread of terrorism in the territory of Ukraine, the costs will increase even more.

The Ukrainian budget is bursting at the seams especially if you consider that in the near future Russia may suspend the importation of Ukrainian food. Before his resignation Yatsenyuk noted that Ukraine will lose about 5bn dollars a year if trade relations with Russia are severed, not to mention the terminated negotiations on gas.

But now no one cares about the disputes over supply routes and methods of payment for the "blue fuel". The events around the Ukraine are almost completely focused on the 17 July crash of the Malaysian Boeing-777 aircraft near Donetsk. In history, it is not the first case when a passenger plane becomes the victim of a tragic error, war or political tensions. And, as a matter of fact, the perpetrators were almost never identified and brought to justice. However, this time the international community has not lost hope to get to the bottom of the truth. On 22 July, the Dutch Prosecutor's Office filed a case on war crimes in connection with the crash. With the coordination of the Security Council of the Netherlands, a group of experts has been established, which includes Australia, Britain, Germany, Malaysia, Russia, USA, Ukraine, as well as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The black boxes of the Malaysian Boeing are being examined in the UK. It is already known that no signs of outside interference in the flight recorders were found.

The main version of the crash of the Boeing is a missile. The parties concerned, without waiting for expert reports and almost at the highest level, were quick to blame the tragedy on each other. For Ukraine and the West the culprit is Russia and the separatists in the southeast supported by Moscow. Russia and representatives of the self-proclaimed republics of the southeast - "DNR" and "LNR" - argue that the cause of the plane crash should be sought in Ukraine and in the Western countries that are helping Kiev.

The US State Department spokesperson Marie Harf said that the Buk anti-aircraft missile system (SA-11 according to NATO classification) fired at the aircraft from the separatist-controlled territory. "This is a complex system, and its use requires training. But we know that the Russian government advises pro-Russian separatists," Harf explained. US State Secretary John Kerry spoke in the same spirit, although the Americans have also emphasized since the first days of the disaster that for the time being some intelligence "cannot be disclosed" for some reason. Among the evidence that appeared immediately is an audio recording of radio conversations between separatist commanders, where they boast that they brought down a plane and that they have a system of Buk surface-to-air missiles.

In response, Russia claims that the recording was assembled from several conversations and presents its own arguments. For example, the permanent representative of the Russian Federation, Vitaliy Churkin, said at the UN Security Council that on 17 July, one of the Ukrainian Buk batteries was relocated to the area that is adjacent to the territory controlled by the militia. At the same time, the maximum intensity of the work of the Ukrainian air defence forces was registered. According to the Russian military, the civilian airliner was accompanied by a Ukrainian Su-25 attack plane, and for some reason, the Boeing deviated from the planned route.

It is quite difficult to understand this flow of information, even taking into account that in the recent period all politicians and political scientists have also become military experts. What, perhaps, clearly plays in favour of the version of Russia and the militias in the southeast is simple logic. Indeed, it is impossible to give a convincing answer to the question of why the separatists needed to shoot down a passenger airliner. To make the world community angry with themselves and Russia? To encourage the United States to quickly recognize the "DNR" and "LNR" as terrorist entities with all the ensuing consequences?

According to another version, the separatists shot down the airliner by mistake, confusing it with military aircraft. Ukrainian military aircraft - from transport planes to attack aircraft and helicopters - had been brought down earlier. It is likely that the Boeing might have been mistaken for a transport plane. For example, the militia previously downed Il-76 and An-26 transport planes. However, again, both planes were shot down at a relatively low altitude - IL-76 was downed during landing and was fired at from a portable anti-aircraft system (Igla MANPADS) and heavy machine guns.

If it was an error, then it was certainly made only by the militia - the Ukrainian side cannot have taken a passenger liner for enemy aircraft. But the Ukrainian military may have made an error in something else. On 25 July there was another version about the collapse of the Boeing - an emergency during drills by an air defence unit of the Ukrainian army. A source in the security agencies of Ukraine allegedly told RIA Novosti that during exercise there was an unauthorized missile launch from a Buk-M1 complex, which hit the airliner.

In any case, the downed Boeing underlines the great number of poorly controlled weapons in Ukraine. According to The Guardian, "it turns out that the Kremlin gave missiles to a bunch of drunken and heavily armed hotheads who are unable to identify aircraft flying past". This conclusion, without regard to the crash, contains one very important point. Do the militias, drunk or not (we can only guess how the British publication managed to check it) really have serious weapons - tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery and multiple rocket launchers, which they cannot have stockpiled in advance. Then it turns out that the weapons could have fallen into the hands of representatives of the "DNR" and "LNR" only in one way, and Moscow really has nothing to say in response to this. Therefore, US Secretary of State John Kerry accused Russia of supplying large shipments of arms to separatists in eastern Ukraine. An anonymous source in NATO told Reuters that despite the tragic incident, Russia continues to supply arms to the east of Ukraine. In addition, the US State Department said that Washington has evidence that the positions of Ukrainian troops had come under fire from Russian territory.

Thus, although it seems too early to make conclusions, there are already consequences - especially for Moscow. Following the crash of the Boeing, the US finally got Europe to agree to another round of sanctions against Russia, which will cover areas such as access to capital markets, banks, defence and dual-use goods and technologies in the energy sector and technologies for the development of the Arctic shelf, i.e. this will be very sensitive to the Russian Federation. The sanctions list will include another 15 citizens of Russia and Ukraine, as well as 18 organizations - FSB director Aleksandr Bortnikov, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Mikhail Fradkov, Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev, as well as many Russian oligarchs.

In addition, the US is close to recognizing the self-proclaimed "DNR" and "LNR" as international terrorist organizations. On 22 July, Verkhovna Rada made a similar request to international and European organizations, which looks quite remarkable against the possible granting to Ukraine of the status of a non-aligned privileged military partner of NATO. The media have already published statements by Ukrainian security officials that first suicide bombers have appeared in the conflict zone in the south-east of the country. A "kamikaze" attack was made at a checkpoint of Ukrainian forces near Kamenka in the Donetsk region. The United States also said that they had information on the existence of training centres to train militants in southwestern Russia.

But how far are the Old World countries willing to go in their pressure on Russia? After all, in the ranks of the Europeans, even taking into account the decision on sanctions, things are not so clear. We are talking about the hesitations of Italy, about France, which does not want to miss the deal with the Mistrals, and especially about Germany. German interests have long gone beyond the borders of the EU - both in the economy and geopolitics. According to the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita, economic ties with Russia are too important for Berlin, which has not forgotten that at the peak of the economic crisis it was export to Russia and China that helped to offset the losses. Now sanctions against Moscow threaten the Germans with a tangible loss of jobs. In addition, it is possible that Germany is annoyed by US custody in the form of NATO. The strength of Berlin, according to the Polish publication, is indicated by "fundamentally important disputes with the Americans, which is proved by the recent spy scandal". Indeed, on 10 July Germany expelled the US intelligence chief, and later Merkel instructed counterintelligence units to resume spying on the US and UK intelligence agencies. Therefore, Polish analysts do not exclude that in the near future Berlin may need an ally in Eurasia, and Russia is the best suited for this role. Foreign Policy journal is also worried about this, saying that Putin is "trying to tear Berlin from the Trans-Atlantic alliance".

Thus, while everyone is waiting for a solution to the Ukrainian crisis, it seems to be gaining momentum. When it comes to the actual change of the geopolitical balance in the world, the dissolution of the parliament, hostilities in some parts of the country and the crash of a passenger plane over the war zone - it is just another, planned or not, stage in the "big game".