IS THE GAME WORTH THE CANDLE?

The situation surrounding the Azerbaijani citizens taken hostage in occupied Kalbacar by Armenia remains in the public spotlight. There are plenty of reasons for concern. Armenia refuses to provide our captured citizens with prisoner of war status. Representatives of the International Red Cross have not yet met with the "Kalbacar hostages", and this causes fair indignation not only among the relatives of our compatriots languishing in Armenian captivity. "The prosecutor's office of Nagornyy Karabakh" is already preparing to bring charges against them: they include espionage, "crossing of the state border" and kidnapping with murder...

Perhaps, needless to say that, firstly, Baku emphasized from the very beginning that Kalbacar District is part of Azerbaijan and our citizens have every right to be there. Secondly, no "legal documents" issued by the so-called "Karabakh authorities" can have any real legal force and legal framework exactly for the same reason whereby multiplication by zero results in a zero. Thirdly, they are not "saboteurs" but refugees from the same Kalbacar District, who crossed the front line just to see their native village and visit the graves of their ancestors.

However, one important fact remains behind the scenes. According to many experts, the story with alleged "saboteurs" in Kalbacar was promoted beyond measure with a definite purpose - to create a kind of "promotion" for Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan.

Experts believe that the Armenian defence minister has lately developed unprecedented media activity, where the main topic is the same "Azerbaijani spies and saboteurs".

Until recently, the Armenian media and blogosphere filed credible reports and video clips showing hazardous incidents in the Armenian army with alarming regularity - until the moment Ohanyan demanded an end to the "blackening" of his ministry. He also said that the army is supposedly the best state institution in Armenia. The stream of "negative information" soon stopped. And incidents in the Armenian army continued. But now they have begun promptly presenting soldiers killed during military incidents as "victims of Azerbaijani saboteurs". That's how events unfolded in January this year when "Yerevanians" and "Karabakh people" clashed in one of Armenian military units. The incident resulted in Sergeant Arman Hovhanisyan being killed. Seyran Ohanyan's ministry immediately stated that the sergeant died heroically while repelling attempts of "Azerbaijani saboteurs" to infiltrate Karabakh. A very lavish funeral was staged for the dead serviceman. At the same time, they forced his parents to keep silent: they did not "debunk" the heroism of their son. And as Yerevan rights campaigners argued, this is quite a common practice for Armenia. And since incidents in the Armenian army happen regularly, Seyran Ohanyan could not complain about the lack of opportunity to show off in front of cameras with another portion of malicious allegations about "Azerbaijani saboteurs" and "heroic Armenian soldiers". However, he never showed the public a single "saboteur" - alive or dead. But that did not cool the ardour of the Armenian minister.

This summer, the media activity of Seyran Ohanyan reached its climax. Not only did he talk about more "saboteurs", this time in Tavush, he also made loud statements that clearly went beyond the authority of a defence minister. At a press conference organized right at the "forefront", the minister effectively posed against the backdrop of camouflage netting.

And frankly, behind all this activity it is impossible not to see clear "political plans" of the minister, who is clearly preparing to "jump up", and hardly for the post of prime minister - in Armenia with its ailing economy, it is already a "punishable" position. Seyran Ohanyan, judging by many indications, is aiming for the presidency and is clearly "promoting" himself.

For Ohanyan the rates are as high as ever. The question is put really point-blank: "All or nothing."

In fact, the "geopolitical deadlock", in which Armenia is today, has created a very unique domestic political situation here. The question of Armenia's entry into the EAEU, as experts have already noted countless times, is "frozen" once and for all. The local audience is insistently asking the "vexed question": why did we part with the "European dream"? When will membership in the Eurasian Union finally become a reality? And was it worth trying to get in there if they are not admitting us there?

Armenia, as you know, is not a successful and self-sufficient state. Even in its current form, it can survive only owing to external financial "injections", of course, only in exchange for a promise to join the CU and EAEU. By "zeroing" the duties on oil, gas and diamonds supplied from Russia, Yerevan receives about one billion dollars a year. But in Armenian economic "hopelessness", that money disappears like water in sand. In addition, many in Yerevan believe that if the EAEU project was "running" at full capacity, Armenia would restore "Soviet" economic ties, launch non-operating "industry giants", etc. It is clear that in the context of current realities and without a reliable land link with Russia and other members of the EAEU, it is nothing more than rose-coloured illusions, but Armenian citizens are waiting entry into the EAEU like manna from heaven, seeing it almost as the restoration of the USSR, in which Armenia was not destitute at all.

Entry into the EAEU has turned into Sargsyan's main political project today - with all the consequences that ensue. Seyran Ohanyan understands it very well: if public discontent fuelled by economic troubles reaches a critical point, popular indignation will simply sweep the current regime away together with all the key players. Moreover, Seyran Ohanyan cannot but understand something else: in this case, the "split line" is likely to take place between "Yerevanians" and "Karabakh people". This dictates a risky, but perhaps promising plan of action: if you cannot prevent the process, try to lead it, i.e. remove the president yourself, especially as the defence minister seems to bear no responsibility for the failure of the integration process and economic woes. And power in Armenia is almost the only "profitable business". So the game is worth the candle.

Against this background, Ohanyan regarded the "Kalbacar incident" as another PR chance. However, events in this round of the "information war" are not developing in favour of Yerevan. The detainees turned out to be not saboteurs, but ordinary farmers, and they are already talking about it in Armenia itself, where they saw to their horror that Azerbaijanis expelled from the occupied districts are ready to literally put their neck on the line to see their homes again. And if the appearance of two civilians with a kitchen knife caused the strongest panic in Armenian villages, what will happen if regular troops appear there? How "porous" is the front line? But perhaps the worst news for Yerevan was different. As a result of the "Kalbacar incident", the world community was once again reminded of Armenian aggression, the occupation of Azerbaijani lands, and that the front line today is not the same as the state border. And this unanticipated effect was so strong and unexpected for Armenia that other experts out there managed to start talking about "a set piece from Baku", which almost intentionally "set up" the alleged saboteurs to "prove the illegitimacy of 'Artsakh'".

However, whether this propaganda failure will stop the ambitions of Seyran Ohanyan is an open question. He still continues to "promote" the theme of saboteurs and criticizes anyone who questions his version. And, perhaps, the near future will show if he bets on elections or is going to come to power through a military coup.