SHORT-TERM EFFECT

The most significant military tensions in 20 years occurred on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and on the Karabakh front line in late July - early August. Violations of the ceasefire took on a permanent nature and reciprocal raids by reconnaissance and sabotage groups became more frequent, while dozens were killed and wounded on both sides. Naturally, such a negative course of events caused concern in the international community. The foreign ministers of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and influential international organization called on the parties to exercise restraint and prevent a resumption of full-scale hostilities. Russian President Vladimir Putin came up with an initiative to hold an emergency meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Sochi with his direct participation.

The invitation from Vladimir Putin was accepted, and on 9-10 August, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in Sochi. On the first day they held bilateral talks with their Russian counterpart and then had an informal meeting at the international sambo tournament. On the second day there was a meeting in the trilateral format to discuss the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict line and prospects for the resumption of intensive dialogue on the peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.

The negotiations were tense. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs were not invited to them. The parties did not reach any agreements that could be included in the document (communiqu?, declaration, etc.). The presidents did not even feel the need to see representatives of the media waiting for them after the meeting. This was done by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who noted in the vaguely streamlined manner characteristic of him that the parties to the conflict confirmed their commitment to the principles set out by the co-chairing countries at the highest level and the need to find a solution on the basis of a peaceful approach respecting territorial integrity and the right of self-determination. Lavrov then said: "The presidents expressed their willingness to continue it (dialogue) at the level of the leaderships of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the Russian Federation, as one of the co-chairing countries, will do everything to facilitate this." The foreign ministers, he said, have been given relevant instructions. Lavrov also noted that the vast majority of agreements on the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict are already understandable, but there are a few specific points that have to be finalized. "As they say, the devil is in the details, and the most difficult questions have yet to be resolved," he concluded.

Note that in early August, Sergey Lavrov, announcing the Sochi meeting of the presidents, hinted that the adoption of a policy statement at it, "outlining the principles, which can be used as a guideline for resolving the conflict, of course, would contribute to the normalization of the atmosphere". In essence, this is new packaging for the Russian foreign minister's idea of a framework agreement rejected three years ago in Kazan. However, documents that do not suggest practical action for the liberation of the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenians, but impose an obligation not to use force for their liberation, and in addition, the agreement to determine the status of Nagornyy Karabakh through the will of the population without returning expelled Azerbaijanis there are unacceptable for Baku. Therefore, at the Sochi meeting of the presidents, this idea of Lavrov was not supported.

In Azerbaijan there is no disappointment with the outcome of the trilateral meeting of the presidents in Sochi, as originally there were no particular expectations. It was assumed that in the best case, the parties would express their willingness to take action to de-escalate tensions, as well as agree to resume an intensive round of negotiations moderated by the Russian president. It seems that such modest results have been achieved, but even this should be confirmed in the next month and a half. Otherwise, we can assume with high probability that skirmishes will resume and turn into local clashes with the risk of escalating into full-scale hostilities. The presidents of neighbouring Turkey and Iran are expected to visit Baku soon. After appropriate consultations, Baku will decide what measures should be taken to overcome the intolerable status quo that has been continuing for more than 20 years with the occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenian forces. Continuing fruitless talks about an obligation not to use force and confidence-building measures without synchronizing all that with the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories in accordance with the well-known resolutions of the UN Security Council and the return of refugees there is of no interest to Azerbaijan.

In Sochi, the parties failed to agree even on local issues relating to the exchange of prisoners and dead bodies. Upon his return to Yerevan, Serzh Sargsyan, contrary to the practice of confidentiality, spoke to the local media with a one-sided interpretation of the talks, trying to present himself as a "hero". Nor did he refrain from threats to turn any city in Azerbaijan into Agdam, a city razed to the ground, which is unbecoming of a head of state. Although for a man who openly admitted to the British analyst Thomas de Waal that he was the direct organizer of the genocide, extermination and expulsion of the [ethnic Azeri] population in Xocali [Khojaly; a town in Azerbaijan's breakaway region of Karabakh], it is not surprising. As the director of the British Independent Conflicts Research & Analysis Centre, Christopher Langton, told NEWS.am, in Sochi "…Sargsyan was clearly looking for a scandal".

It is obvious that the emergency meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan organized by the Russian leader was supposed to prevent a slide into a new and bloody war and had a short-term effect in this regard. However, there is no way out of the negotiating impasse in sight yet. In this context, an article by the former Armenian foreign minister, who is now an opposition member of parliament, Vardan Oskanyan, draws attention. The article "Will Armenia and Azerbaijan achieve a negotiated solution?" was published on the website of the Al Jazeera TV channel. In it, he stated that the ceasefire has been maintained since 1994 for two main reasons: a parity of forces between the parties to the conflict and hopes linked with the negotiation process. Oskanyan recognizes that these constraints have been severely shaken, as the military power of Azerbaijan has increased and the negotiations for a peaceful settlement have reached a dead end. He fears that the growing rivalry between Russia and the West can penetrate into the negotiation process on Karabakh. According to Oskanyan, the resumption of war is hard to imagine, but cannot be excluded, even though it carries a high risk for the party that starts it. The conclusions and suggestions Oskanyan draws are banal and are in line with the traditional wishes of Armenia and its patrons. For the peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, he said, it is necessary to take two parallel steps - to provide guarantees that hostilities will not resume and adopt a clear programme that obliges both sides to achieve a final solution, i.e. to tie Baku down with specific obligations in return for a promise to start "serious" negotiations.

The article and the theses expressed it in show that the Armenian political elite and analytical community has yet to get rid of illusions to impose their own programme of the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement on Azerbaijan. However, the Armenians have neither the strength nor the means to press their own version of the Karabakh conflict settlement. Armenia's economy is stagnating, poverty and misery are progressing. The exodus of people desperate to improve their living situation from Armenia is increasing. During the first six months of the year, the number of emigrants from Armenia exceeds the number of arrivals (negative migration) by 85,869 people.

Since the Sochi meeting of the presidents, there has been a decline in confrontations on the border line and the line of contact. The number of shootings has decreased, and heavy hardware has been withdrawn. However, if concrete initiatives that will show a real prospect of progress in the peaceful settlement of the conflict do not follow, we should expect new tensions. Armenian analyst Igor Muradyan regards the decline in tensions on the line of contact as temporary. He attributes this to the fact that Vladimir Putin hinted at Ilham Aliyev that mass supplies of new Russian weapons will be impossible if hostilities resume, and the Azerbaijani president ordered his military command to retreat temporarily.

The scale of Russian military supplies is impressive. According to sources of Vedomosti newspaper, Russia has begun deliveries of 94 T-90 tanks, around 100 BMP-3, 18 self-propelled MSTA-S artillery installations and the same amount of Vena guns, 18 launchers for Smerch rapid fire systems and 6 Solntsepek heavy flamethrower systems to the Azerbaijani army. In addition, according to Turkish Huriyyet newspaper, Baku recently purchased Israeli-made ballistic missiles (130 km) and Pakistani long-range missiles (2,000 km). 

Obviously, the sluggish and fruitless negotiations are unlikely to continue to prevent the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict from sliding into a direct armed conflict. It is high time to make specific decisions in accordance with international law. Azerbaijan's patience is running out. The mediating powers are also aware of this. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to achieve a result outside the format of the Minsk Group, in connection with which, after the Sochi meeting, he found it necessary to inform his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev on the talks over the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement. To all appearances, he wants to engage Nazarbayev as a partner. In turn, the United States will try to arrange a meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in autumn on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session, and French President Francois Hollande has confirmed that he has invited Aliyev and Sargsyan to peace talks in Paris.

It is hard to say whether these peace initiatives will be productive, but one thing is clear: without sobering pressure on the Armenian side in order to bring its territorial ambitions in line with international law and the real power of Armenia itself, a favourable peaceful settlement of the conflict is impossible. The time to find a mutually acceptable compromise solution is rapidly disappearing. It would be nice to take advantage of the existing window of opportunity to establish peace before it closes and guns start talking.

ТРИБУНА

What kind of games are Russia's closest allies trying to drag it into?

The Armenian president's accusation that Azerbaijan has failed to implement the UN Security Council resolutions on Karabakh is Serzh Sargsyan's attempt to lay the blame for compliance with the requirements of these documents on somebody else or simply a provocation, according to the article "Dangerous Misinformation" published in the Russian newspaper Tribuna.

"In everyday life, statements such as those made by Serzh Sargsyan are called 'laying the blame at somebody else's door'. In 'big-time politics', they are called provocative. But such provocative statements were made by the president not at a rally of his supporters somewhere in Yerevan and Gyumri, but in Russian Sochi at a meeting with the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan dedicated to the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, where Russia assumed the role of a mediator. This means that his understanding of the UN Security Council resolutions can become our problem too," journalist Alesya Dovlatova said in the article.

The author recalled that at the recent Azerbaijan-Russia-Armenia summit on Karabakh in Sochi, Serzh Sargsyan, in response to President Ilham Aliyev's reminder that Yerevan has failed to implement the four UN Security Council resolutions on the unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territory adopted 20 years ago, stated that "the only side that implemented a provision of the resolution is Armenia, which used its influence to stop the fighting".

"According to the version publicly voiced by the Armenian president, it is precisely Azerbaijan that has failed to comply with the UN Security Council resolution. But how should Azerbaijan contribute to the peaceful implementation of these resolutions? Abandon its legitimate territories? Give its neighbour about twenty per cent of its land?" the journalist asks.

According to Dovlatova, with such a provocative statement Sargsyan is trying to drag Russia into a dangerous game with its closest allies. According to the author, it is not only Armenia, which is preparing to join the Eurasian Union, but also Azerbaijan, with which Russia has developed "a really good relationship", which "does not close Russian schools and newspapers", which does not create "museums of Soviet occupation" and does not engage in anti-Russian propaganda, but successfully carries out political reforms and has made great strides in the economy in 10 years". "Azerbaijan today is an important political and economic partner of Russia," the author said.