THE BACKBONE OF RELATIONS

R+ interview with Carlo Frappi, an Associate Research Fellow at the Caucasus and Central Asia Program of the Institute for International Political Studies (Milan)

-Azerbaijan and Italy are strategic partners in the energy sphere. How would you evaluate this partnership in the context of the Southern Gas Corridor groundbreaking ceremony marking the 20th anniversary of the "Contract of the Century," which was held in Baku on 20 September?

- The coincidence of the 20th anniversary of the "Contract of the Century" and the inauguration of the Southern Gas Corridor project is highly symbolic, since it proves the long distance covered by Azerbaijan in the last twenty years. In such a timeframe - shorter than it might appear, if we take into consideration the evolution of national and regional policies - Azerbaijan, despite being an almost "failed state," and following the farsighted vision of Heydar Aliyev, managed to relaunch energy production, to establish new export channels reaching regional and international partners and, in the end, to reaffirm itself as a key and reliable actor in the field of Eurasian energy policy.

On the other hand, Italy, whose scarce natural resources traditionally forced the country to a proactive foreign supply policy, emerged as a key partner for Baku since the very beginning of this process. It was indeed Italy that has been receiving, since 1999, the bulk of the Azerbaijani oil exported through the Baku-Supsa pipeline and, later, through the Baku-[Tbilisi-]Ceyhan pipeline. This made Italy Baku's first economic partner, a position which remains to this today.

Hence, the inauguration of the Southern Gas Corridor, linking the Caspian shores to the Adriatic ones, is a new and determinant step towards the enhancing of bilateral relations; the more so in view of the peculiarity of the gas market which, unlike the oil one, ties together producing and consuming countries in the long term. Metaphorically speaking, it can be said that the Southern Gas Corridor represents an iron "umbilical cord" between Azerbaijan and Italy, enhancing the interdependence between the two sides of the pipeline system and allowing Italy to gain access not just to the Azerbaijani resources but potentially to the widest gas production of the Caspian area.

- By the way, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project, which is part of the Southern Gas Corridor and is designed to run through Italy's Apulia region, is causing protest actions in that region held by environmentalists who are convinced that the pipeline will harm the local environment. Moreover, Beppe Grillo, one of the local leaders of the opposition, has called on the authorities to hold a referendum on whether it is expedient to lay such a pipeline. Doesn't it put the implementation of the TAP project at risk?

- Against the backdrop of the difficulties in overcoming the economic crisis, Italian politicians are going through a very difficult period. As is common in such periods, populist temptations run deep and always find a politician eager to capitalize on them. The issue, hence, is wider than the one concerning TAP which, as you were correct in saying, fell victim to this kind of rhetoric - in part, due to the mistakes made by the TAP Consortium in presenting the project and its advantages to local communities.

Having said that, TAP is a strategic project to Italy in the framework of the national supply diversification strategy and therefore, personally, I do not think it may be at risk. TAP - and broadly speaking the gas corridor linking Azerbaijan and Italy - has not come out of the blue. On the contrary, it has been the result of the firm commitment and the support ensured by all the governments, irrespective of their political affiliation. Consistently with his predecessors, (Prime Minister of Italy) Matteo Renzi ensured firm support to the TAP, listing the pipeline among infrastructures considered to be of strategic importance for national development.

This is not, of course, to say that the TAP project is free from environmental risks. This is to say that all the involved and interested parties shall constructively cooperate in order to keep the risk under control and to ensure the most limited level of environmental impact in one of the most beautiful parts of the Adriatic coast.

- President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev recently paid an official visit to Italy. Both sides agreed on various projects, including Azeri investments in restoration of cultural monuments and museums in Italy. How would you assess the present level of bilateral relations and their prospects?

- I agree that President Aliyev's recent visit to Italy was a good demonstration of the healthy state of Italian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations. Above all, the fact that the parties agreed to adopt a declaration on Strategic Partnership shows the magnitude of cooperation. Essentially, it shows that Italy and Azerbaijan are slowly but steadily taking their relations beyond the sphere of energy, which certainly still remains its backbone. A wide range of agreements signed during the visit by different branches of the two governments shows that the potential for improving commercial and economic exchange is very high and that both partners are eager to exploit such opportunities.

Interestingly, and thanks to the public diplomacy efforts undertaken by Azerbaijani institutions, more and more links are being established outside institutional and business circles. Stable and fruitful linkages are being developed, for instance, in the academic and research field. Although it may sound as a partisan position when it comes from a researcher, I think this trend is critically important for establishing solid and long term relations between our countries.

- The Armenian diaspora said that they succeeded in preventing the visit of the Italian Prime Minister to Azerbaijan for participation in the ceremony of laying the foundation of the Southern Gas Corridor. How can you comment on that?

- The reasons why Premier Renzi did not come to Azerbaijan are chiefly domestic and in no way linked to the Armenian diaspora in Italy.

Generally speaking, Italy - which only recently became an immigration country - has almost no tradition at all of diaspora politics. With specific reference to the Armenian diaspora in Italy, it is not comparable to French or US diasporas, either in number or in strength. It organizes many - usually very interesting - cultural events and debates, but it can hardly be considered a political actor.

Moreover, Italy seems firm in keeping a balanced position not conditionable by external pressures, but aimed at fostering regional stability and cooperation. Hence, it is not by chance that, with reference to the aforementioned Declaration of Strategic Partnership, the Italian government recently reaffirmed that the enhancing of Rome-Baku relations is not levelled against any third party, which is a clear reference to Armenia, and that the Italian government, consistently with the EU position, firmly reiterates its support for ongoing mediation process aimed at solving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.

- Speaking of solving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, Armenians were hugely inspired by processes in Scotland and Catalonia, drawing parallels with these events and considering them precedents for justifying their claims for Karabakh's independence. But Armenians have already found their self-determination in Armenia. Moreover, Karabakh's "independence" was declared not on the basis of peaceful voting of all population of the region, but after ethnic cleansing and territorial occupation. Nonetheless, what can you say about parallels drawn by Armenians?

- The contradiction between the principles of self-determination and inviolability of the borders is one of the main unsolved issues which accompanied all the evolution of the post-bipolar international system, creating many ambiguous and often painful situations in which the international community proved to be unable to individuate and/or enforce long term solutions. Moreover, it is equally true that previous or analogous cases may be invoked to justify both one principle or the other.

Proceeding to your question, it is clear enough, I think, that neither Scottish nor Catalonian cases are comparable with the Nagornyy Karabakh case. Different is the evolution of the issue, different is the role and the position of the parties involved, different and - above all - deeper are the wounds inflicted to the local population.

However, besides and above the positions and the opposite arguments of the parties, international institutions clearly affirmed, as per the Nagornyy Karabakh issue, that the principle of inviolability of the borders has the pre-eminence. Whatever institutional solution may be found, it shall be implemented within the borders of Azerbaijan. This is the only basic principle to proceed from when dealing with the conflict solution.