YEMEN: ANOTHER SYRIA

The panorama of the escalation of tensions in the Middle East cannot be imagined without the latest developments in Yemen. The country, which is located in the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, has effectively been in the hands of the Shia rebelsfor more than two months now.

The history of the state of Yemen in its current form is not older than a quarter of a century. In the era of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the West, the northern part of Yemen, whose statehood developed after this area broke away from the Ottoman Empire with the direct intervention of the British, was torn between orienting itself towards Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, by the early 1980s both of these countries were following US policies, which allowed Washington to keep the situation in north Yemen under control. Meanwhile, the southern part of Yemen was under the influence of the Soviet Union. However, the aspiration of Yemeni "people's democracy" to build a socialist society came to nothing after the Soviet Union disappeared from the world's political map.

The South and the North had had many military clashes, but with Moscow's departure from the region, richer clans of the "capitalist" Yemen absorbed the southern "socialists". Armedskirmishes between them, however, continued even after a united state formed. Nevertheless, disagreements between the southerners and the northerners were not clearly religious until the Arabian region entered an era of an oil boom. Since that moment the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf found themselves under the de facto control of the American superpower, which chose local Salafi regimes, i.e.followers of radical Sunni Islam, as its supportin the region. The latter, in order to spite Iran who was strengthening its might, started to persecute Shias in their countries. This trend affected the united Yemen as well.

Meanwhile, although the Shias are considered to be a minority in most Arab countries, they are still an impressive force. In Bahrain, they even outnumber the Sunnis, which, however, does not stop the latter from being the political leaders of the country. In Yemen, 45 percent of the population consider themselves to be Shiabut, despite this, they are kept away from involvement in the distribution of political and economic power. Deposed in the "revolution" in 2011, President Ali Abdallah Salihhad declared a year earlier a "definitive cessation of conflicts" in this country. However, as the developmentsin Yemen have shown in the past three years, the country, torn by inter-religious, inter-clan and political disagreements, has plunged into a longinstabilityperiod.

The organization called Al-Houthi (aka Ansarullah, i.e. Helpers of God) - an armed Shia group that has been operating since the early 1990s - has now come to the foreground in Yemeni domestic politcs. In 2004, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, the leader of the organization, who declared himself an imam, raised an anti-government rebellion in order to restore the rights of Yemeni Shias. The latter belong to the Zaydi branch of the Shia whose followersconstitute the majority of the population of the northern part of the country. Before the year 1962, when northern Yemensaw an anti-monarchy revolution, there had even existed a Zaydi imamate in this area. However, a coalition of Sunni tribes pushed the Zaydisaway from power, and the Yemeni Shias have been in a subordinate position for almost half a century.

Shortly after the uprising ledby the Al-Houthiorganization started, its leader Husseinwas killed. Leadership of the rebelspassed to his brother Abdul Malik whoshowed himself as a fairly gifted organizer. In recent years, al-Houthi, which says that it is a force seeking to achieve inter-religious and social justice in the country, has skilfully taken advantage of public protest sentiment, primarily causedby the corrupt nature of Yemen's ruling and economic elite, and has turned into a political and armed organization with an efficient management mechanism. It is the Houthists (this is how supporters of Abdul Malik refer to themselves) that have played a fairly significant role in the fall of the Ali Abdullah Salih regime. However, soon afterwards they found themselves on secondary positions, because of which the confrontation between them and government troops, and also the forces of radical Islamists, became even more acute.

The immediate reason for the current round of armed clashes was an almost 100-per-cent increase in the price of fuel in Yemen. The Houthists immediately demanded the resignation of the "corrupt cabinet".More than 300 people were killed during the clashes with police. However, attempts by the authorities to suppress the protests by the Shias only provoked the latter into taking more radical action. In September, the Houthists captured the capital San'a. With UN mediation, the rebels and President Abd-Rabbuh Mansur Hadi (a Sunni figure closely connected with Saudi Arabia) agreed to form a new government in which the Shia minoritywould be represented as well.

Soon afterwards, the Yemeni president appointed Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak to the post of prime minister. However, the latterhad to resign 33 hours after he was appointed as the Houthistsbelieved he was a US protege.Abdul Malikal-Houthiactually said that he considered bin Mubarak's candidacy to have been "imposed on Yemenfrom outside". This is how Yemengot a new prime minister - Khalid MahfuzBahah, a former oil minister and a former Yemeni permanent representative to the UN. The Houthists backed his candidacy but the ongoing instability within the Yemeni government suggests that either the Houthistsbacked himas they did not have a stronger candidate for the post of prime minister or Bahahhimself started playing his own game aiming to reduce his dependence on Abdul Malik'sparty.

In any case, in the past few weeks Yemen has become a scene of violent clashes between the Houthists and radical Sunnis. In addition to the capital, the Shia organization has taken control of strategically important cities of the country, in particular Dhamar, Ibb and Hodeida(a port on the Red Sea). The Houthistsnow control the Babel-Mandeb Strait, which is considered to be a gateway from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

Radical Sunnis,who are represented by the Islah party which is believed to be a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as by the organization called "Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula", are seeking to contain the onset of the Shias by carrying out more and more terrorist attacks that killdozens of civilians. Assuming that the Houthistswill soon be able to definitively take control of the entire country, the situation in Yemen will largely resemble the Syrian crisis. Here, just like in Syria in the past three years, the Shia-led government will be opposed by radical Sunni groups supported by the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Those monarchies, for their part, are patronizedby the United States. This factor will also mean development of the confrontation between the Salafi Arabian regimes, primarily Saudi Arabia, and the Shia Iran, which does not conceal its support for the Houthists.

Thus, a fresh and a much larger round of Sunni-Shia confrontation is brewing in the Middle East. An indication of this is, on the one hand, a significant strengthening of the Shia movement (which is also represented, in particular, by the Lebanese group Hezbollah) and the incessant military action in Syria and Iraq (including in the context of the onset of the Salafi Islamic State), and, on the other, the continued persecution of Shias in countries like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

It is noteworthy that a few days ago a court in Saudi Arabia sentenced a famous Shia preacher, Nimr Baqr al-Nimr, who is an active participant in anti-government protests, to thedeath penalty. It is equally noteworthy that cruel persecutions of dissidents in the Arabmonarchies take place with the tacit agreement of Washington who readily forgives its Salafi satellites any tricks, even those that do not fit in the ideology of human rights that the West is armed with.

The decision by the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf(it includes Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia) to establish a united fleet for this organization could be regarded as an indication of a growing geopolitical confrontation against the background of the Yemeni developments. The fleet will be part of the united armed forces called the Peninsula Shield Force, which Arab countries set up back in 1982. Commenting on the decision, the representative of Saudi Arabia, Abdulazizal-Turki,said openly: "Iran is still a major strategic threat to the countries of the Cooperation Council. It operates in the Arabian Peninsulathrough the Shias of Bahrain and Yemen."

The Saudi official openly let it be understood that that the "Peninsula Shield Force" is willing, if necessary, to carry out an operation similar to the one that was conducted to suppress the Shia movement in Bahrain in 2011. The official did not name the country in which the Cooperation Council may conduct a new operation. However, in the light of the developments in the south of the Arabian Peninsula it is easy to guess that he meant Yemen. The instructions issued by US President Barack Obama to ensure arms sales to Washington's Araballies "in simplified mode" says a lot in this regard.

It is clear that in the event of a military operation by the Arab monarchies against the Yemeni Shias it will be difficult for Iran to remaina bystander. The Arabian Peninsula could thus turn into yet another big source of war in the Middle East.