THE CYPRUS TEST

Another conflict is brewing in Europe. Greece and the Republic of Cyprus (RC) are accusing Turkey of undermining security and stability in the region. A row is building up over oil and gas fields which, Nicosia says, are part of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Cyprus, hoping for a future income of hundreds of billions of euros, issued licences to foreign companies for exploratory drilling, which was immediately taken up by a consortium of the Italian ENI and the South Korean KOGAS, which were based at Onasagoras in block 9.

According to Il Sole 24 ore, the French-based Total company is there, too. Stocks of hydrocarbons in this region of the Mediterranean were first estimated at about 1.2 - 1.4 billion barrels of oil and over 1.5 trillion cu m of gas, but later these predictions were downsized, although they remain considerable. The Cypriots are also planning to build a liquefied gas plant by 2020 and other infra-structure facilities linked with the production of oil and gas resources.

Meanwhile, Ankara believes that the revenue from the planned development of the hydrocarbons should be split between all the inhabitants of divided Cyprus. That is why the Turkish research vessel Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa, accompanied by two warships, turned up in the Eastern Mediterranean precisely in the region of the oil-and gas-bearing shelf to carry out seismic exploration of the oil and gas deposits. While this was going on, the Turkish corvette Bardin put in an appearance in Greek territorial waters in the eastern part of the Aegean.

"The Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa will continue to carry out seismic research. The necessary measures have been taken to protect the ship, so let no-one make a crisis out of this," Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, adding that Ankara has this right according to treaties signed between Turkey and Northern Cyprus.

This move naturally evoked an extremely nervous reaction from Cyprus and Greece. "Nicosia is now bound to protect its rights and sovereignty," Cyprus' Defence Minister Christoforos Fokaidis said. "Turkey must change the course not only of its ship, but also its foreign policy," Greek Foreign Minister Evangelos Venizelos said, for his part. He also advised Ankara not to create another trouble spot "at a time when the attention of the international community is focused on the fight against international terrorism and the crisis facing Europe on its southern and eastern borders". Meanwhile, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said that the Turks were acting "provocatively and illegally" and announced the cessation of negotiations between the Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, the latest round of which was due to be held on 9 October. Nicosia is also talking about a possible approach to the UN Security Council to complain about Ankara's actions.

The row over Cyprus goes back decades, the sort of thing that the world community has somehow learned to live with, carefully skating round sensitive issues at international meetings, during bilateral dialogues and when concluding legal documents. However, this doesn't mean that an old problem cannot be brought out of the woodwork at the right time, the dust of the truce shaken off and adapted to the new circumstances. That may be why the world community is in no hurry to solve the territorial disputes which are very convenient levers for making adjustments to the geopolitical situation in one context or another. This is, of course, only an assumption, although the present situation around the oil and gas reserves of the Eastern Mediterranean is so complex that you can't help wondering.

Everything is more or less clear with regard to Cyprus, Greece and Turkey. Cyprus and Greece, with the help of off-shore deposits, are hoping to improve their long suffering economies and improve their international standing. Turkey's reaction is also fairly predictable, although it spells many anxieties for Ankara, one of which is creating further difficulties in its already tough negotiations on EU membership. Nicosia has long since made it clear that it will object to the opening of any new chapter in the process of Turkey's entry into the EU. In addition, Turkey risks yet another axis of tension which, bearing in mind the events on its Syrian and Iraqi borders, it could well do without. Ankara has urged the Italian government to put a stop to the activities of the Italian ENI company, especially as Rome is now in the chair at the EU but, by all accounts, it has met with a refusal; in any event, the Italian giant is still operating on the Cypriot shelf.

If one looks at the situation in its purest form, without the participation of other players, this set-up, of course, will not do. The US, after hearing about the oil and gas off the shores of Cyprus, started talking about the possibility of setting up a big energy centre in this region. There is a belief that, with the active participation of American companies, Cyprus, Turkey, Israel and Greece could come together to achieve a common goal - a massive reduction in Russian fuel supplies. By all accounts, Europe, too, is cherishing certain hopes in this direction. The Denik.cz website, for example, reports that the Czech Deputy Minister of Food and Trade Pavel Scholz, speaking about independence from gas from Russia, recently made reference to gas production by "Cyprus, Turkey and Israel".

To test out this idea, US Vice President Joseph Biden paid a visit to Cyprus. The American politician, as we know, has been making considerable efforts to ensure energy security, especially of South-East Europe. The Americans are confident that the new project will bring stability to the region because all its participants are bound together: mutual interest is always a good thing, and Europe will have an alternative source of hydrocarbons. 

In this instance the US clearly has a vested interest in resolving all differences and the joint production of hydrocarbons. Moreover, Washington, apparently, believes that it is oil and gas production that should become the pivotal point in the negotiations. "I cannot speak for the Turkish government, but I believe they are beginning to realize that common subjects for agreement are starting to emerge. For example, the development and production of gas in the eastern part of the Mediterranean could play a significant role in reducing dependence on Russia not only for Turkey and Cyprus, but also Greece," Biden said earlier. Anastasiades himself recalled the proposals of "certain partners from abroad" who had advised taking measures to share the natural wealth with the Turkish Cypriots.

However, in this instance the US found itself caught in the middle, between two of its NATO allies, Greece and Turkey. An official spokesman of the Republic of Cyprus, Nicos Christodulidis, replying to a question by the TASS news agency about the world's response to Turkey's moves, stated openly that everyone knows "the important role Turkey plays for the US" as a strategic ally in the region and that Ankara "is simply taking advantage of the current situation in Syria and Iraq". "This will be to some extent a test of our relations with a number of countries," Christodulidis added.

However, the further development of events showed that the Greek Cypriots were not very happy with the results of the test. For example, the head of the US State Department's press service, Jen Psaki, said that Washington recognizes Cyprus' right to develop energy resources in its Exclusive Economic Zone, but she added that "oil and gas supplies on the island, like all its other resources, should be fairly distributed between both communities within the context of an overall settlement". "And we, of course, continue to support efforts under the aegis of the UN for the reunification of the island into a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation," Psaki stressed. 

Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulidis described the reaction of the US and other countries to Turkey's actions as "indifferent", adding that Nicosia expected a quite different position from Washington, its strategic partner. "The term 'strategic partner' was chosen by Washington within the context of the fight against international terrorism. In the same way as in relation to Cyprus' contribution to the establishment of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. But this is not an alliance, and we have never chosen the US as our ally," Kasoulidis said. The Cypriot opposition party AKEL expressed its displeasure even more openly, stating that the government was guilty of cooling relations with Russia. The party's press secretary, Iorgos Lukaidis, stressed that the reaction "of Cyprus' strategic allies" to the "Turkish provocations" was extremely restrained, whereas Russia had virtually condemned them. 

Indeed, Russia, for whom Cyprus' actions and the creation of an alternative energy hub cannot be of benefit whichever way you look at it, in this situation supports not Turkey but the Republic of Cyprus. During the recent Asia-Europe summit in Milan, a meeting took place between Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Christodulidis, "Putin reaffirmed Russia's principled position both with regard to a solution to the Cyprus problem and Cyprus' inalienable right to develop its own natural resources within the Exclusive Economic Zone, and also that any violation of Cyprus' sovereignty is unacceptable." For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that "unilateral actions and the demonstration of force in the question of a settlement to the Cyprus problem are unacceptable and only make matters worse in Cyprus and the eastern Mediterranean region".

It is significant that Russia is holding military exercises in this region with the prior consent of Nicosia. Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore suggests that the Kremlin might be interested in restoring its influence in the region and to this end is showing obvious interest in supporting Cyprus' position in the face of Turkey.

"Moscow has vast financial and economic interests on the island where there is a sizeable community of affluent Russians," Il Sole 24 Ore writes.

So, it turns out that in the strategic sense Russia is acting to its own detriment, but the geopolitical situation is now changing so rapidly that Moscow may have decided to act in its own immediate interests and play a move against the EU member-state that stood out from the outset for not being overjoyed by the anti-Russian sanctions. For another thing, Moscow post-Crimea is thereby trying to demonstrate its adherence to international law, and is also operating entirely in accordance with the spirit of Orthodox unity, which entirely fits in with the theme of Putin's recent visit to Serbia.

But will the Turkish-Cypriots and the Greek-Cypriots be able to overcome their differences for the sake of joint benefit? At least, there is no sign of this at the moment. But nor can one really expect the conflict to escalate into a direct armed clash. First of all, we are talking about member-countries of NATO, and second, Greece has no economic strength for this and Turkey has enough problems with the Kurds and IS. At this moment in time, the situation that is developing off the shores of Cyprus, to use the words of Nicos Christodulidis, is of huge interest precisely as a "test" of the motives and intentions of the world's major players.