"GRATITUDE", ARMENIAN STYLE

Yerevan is completing its "road map" for entry into the Eurasian Union. The Armenian National Assembly, with 103 votes "for", 7 "against" and one abstention, ratified the treaty on Armenia's joining the Eurasian Union. Experts had no doubt that this initiative would be supported by the deputies. It became clear even before the start of the ballot that a significant section of the Armenian opposition was ready to support the agreement on joining the EAEU. The head of the Orinats Yerkir faction, Egine Bisharyan, for example, said that joining the EAEU could bring economic benefit and also solve security questions.

On behalf of the Armenian National Congress faction, its leader, Levon Zurabyan, said they would be voting for Armenia's entry into the Eurasian Union. Zurabyan claimed that if the ANC was in power, its representatives would not play double games with the West and Russia and would not get involved in three-year talks and then discard them, losing the trust of the EU and the respect of Russia, never mind conceal the progress of the talks from the people. But in the present situation, he said, one could not remain in one security system with Russia and be economically integrated with the West. Zurabyan said that all talk about a loss of independence by joining the EAEU was pure emotion. And he ended with a significant remark: "But we are aware that membership of the EAEU carries risks and challenges which are linked with the uncertainty of the future of the union itself and the sanctions against Russia. But the biggest threat is linked with the illegitimate Armenian authorities who cannot represent the interests of the Armenian people in the EAEU." Only the Heritage faction expressed itself unequivocally against Armenia's joining the EAEU.

Strictly speaking, this political situation only evolved during opposition rallies which, despite bold statements by their leaders, ultimatums, and so on, essentially came to nothing. Nevertheless, the growth in anti-Russian feeling in Armenia today can be seen with the naked eye. Moreover, one can see in the political and economic life of the country a whole number of trends which these very emotions will fuel and stoke up. To begin with, there is no unity on this question in the opposition factions which supported Armenia's joining the EAEU. For example, although Levon Zurabyan assured everyone that the ANC supported Armenia's joining the EAEU, a deputy from the same faction - former Armenian Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan - warned during one parliamentary debate: "If it joined the Eurasian Union Armenia would lose at least a third of its sovereignty." "Then we would have no independent foreign economic policy - it would be run by another country," Bagratyan said. Then, recalling a fundamental truth which says that the purpose of any unification is exchange, said: "Pray tell me what it is we shall be exchanging. You say that growth will increase, but this is not so."

Bagratyan's prediction is worthy of attention. Yerevan is confident Russia simply has to amply reward Armenia for its loyalty. Theoretically, of course, one could argue that engaging the mechanisms of integration could revive the Armenian economy. As even a superficial analysis of the Armenian media shows, once Eurasian integration starts they anticipate a rapid economic breakthrough. However - let's be realistic - Yerevan is showing little sign of a rapid "breakthrough", even in a Eurasian context. In the first place, any "breakthrough" requires domestic economic potential, which Armenia doesn't have. Second, the warnings of experts, which could be heard immediately after Serzh Sargsyan's statement of intention to join the Customs Union at the time, remain pertinent: Because of its "constricted" state Armenia cannot fully participate in European or Eurasian integration projects. As far as economic "gifts" from Russia are concerned, it may be justifiably argued that the billions of dollars which Armenia receives as a result of the zeroing of duties on oil, gas and rough diamonds are more than a sufficient "bonus" for membership of the EAEU. Besides, in the context of western sanctions and the crash of the rouble, Moscow is not in a position to hand out generous gifts to its allies.

Therefore, the former Armenian prime minister, in the opinion of many experts, raised a very painful subject during the course of parliamentary proceedings. The Armenian economy is in deep depression - this is no longer a secret to anyone. Nor is it a secret that the prime cause of this crisis is its own aggressive policy, as a result of which Armenia has found itself cast off from the biggest and most lucrative regional projects. However, Armenia prefers to studiously avoid the real reasons for its own economic vicissitudes and dishes up more digestible explanations - from mistakes by the authorities in the strictly economic sphere to the "monopolists", corruption, and so on.

However, Armenia's entry into the EAEU could radically change this situation. Whereas yesterday Armenia blamed various individuals in Yerevan for its economic vicissitudes, now it is Moscow that will answer for everything, from the fall of the dram to unemployment and migration. Strictly speaking, it has already been blamed for the crash in the exchange rate of the dram which occurred in Armenia in the early days of winter: the local currency collapsed from 400 drams to the dollar to just over 450 in just one week.

But not even this is the biggest danger for Russia.  Yerevan's "helicopter-provocation" is creating a lot more risks, or to be more precise, the incident where an Armenian combat aircraft that had entered Azerbaijani air space was shot down by a Russian-made Igla short-range portable air-defence system. 

The supply of Russian weapons to Azerbaijan has long since sparked a very sharp reaction from Yerevan, because Armenia, as a member of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization], has the benefit of solid preferences when purchasing Russian weapons. Not only pro-western opposition members, but Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, too, have been critical of Russia for its "arms business", and these emotions are still prevalent in Yerevan. Moreover, there have also been direct calls here for terrorist acts against Russia. In August 2010, Igor Muradyan, in the Lragir newspaper, took it upon himself to comment on Russia's plans to sell S-300 air-defence systems to Azerbaijan - the same systems which a year later passed through Azadliq Square during the military parade to mark the 20th anniversary of the restoration of Azerbaijan's independence. Igor Muradyan wrote at the time: "Regardless of all the arguments of Armenia's 'advocates' about Russian political intriguers, the supplies of the S-300s to Azerbaijan will undoubtedly strengthen it and give that country a new importance in the region… It is becoming perfectly clear that the protection and security of Armenia is not a job for the authorities, but the business and task of the Armenian people. A few must lay down their lives so that their country is secure. The S-300 systems should be destroyed either at the place of manufacture, or during transportation or on Azerbaijani territory. This should have been done long ago, or at least four years ago. Surely conclusions should have been drawn from the Chechen resistance…Whatever happens in the future, if Russia doesn't get it in the neck through its dishonourable actions, Armenia will stand for nothing as a state."

Lastly, a stepping up of cooperation with Turkey, which may be regarded as a fait accompli following Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Ankara, could also present a number of risk factors for Moscow "in an Armenian context", especially with 24 April 1915 near at hand and, consequently another spiral of hysteria about the "lost Western Armenia". It will be recalled that here they also accuse Russia, which signed the Moscow and Kars treaties with Turkey, for this loss. It is possible that each of these trends taken individually is not a big problem for Moscow, but taken together the consequences could be difficult to predict.