STATUS OF ISRAEL

Important changes are taking place in Israel's domestic policy which may have a serious impact on the balance of political forces. The outcome of the upcoming early elections scheduled for March next year will also have a serious effect on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Early parliamentary polls have been announced in Israel. The decision to call a new plebiscite was provoked by conflict between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and two ministers - Yair Lapid (minister of finance and leader of the Yesh Atid party) and Tzipi Livni (minister of justice and leader of the Hatnuah party). The premier accused the two ministers of nothing less than conspiracy against him and blocking the government's normal operation. In his address to the nation, Benjamin Netanyahu said: "It is necessary to hold quick elections and form a strong and united government". Then the Knesset stepped in. It approved a law on self-dissolution which formalized the end of office for Benjamin Netanyahu's third cabinet (the previous two fell on 1996-99 and 2009-13, respectively). According to the Israeli parliament's decision, the snap general election will be held on 17 March 2015, that is almost two years before the tenure expiry date originally set for the now outgoing lawmakers. The situation points to a collapse of the right-centre coalition forged about two years ago.

It has turned out now that the "sword and plough alliance" was a frail one. Experts predict increased influence of Netanyahu's party Likud in the wake of the upcoming election. In fact the rightwing leader is working to increase the number of his supporters in the Knesset which will help Netanyahu himself to get a totally controllable cabinet.

Claiming the role of the Likud leader's major rival is Yair Lapid who has fallen out of favour with him. The latter no doubt has premiership ambitions, although social surveys predict no big success for his party Yesh Atid (the party is expected to have 11 seats instead of 19 they had in the self-dissolved Knesset). Meanwhile there is still three months to go until the election takes place and we should not rule out the possibility (hard as it is to believe at this moment) that Likud may succeed in winning over the sympathies of their compatriots.

But what caused the differences between Netanyahu and his former fellow cabinet members representing the centrist forces? It has turned out that the apple of discord was primarily the issue of declaring Israel the nation-state of the Jewish people. Netanyahu decided to run in the early election immediately after the failure of his talks with the finance minister. Israeli media write that the demands raised to Lapid could be well described as an ultimatum. Only if the finance minister had accepted them, the right-centre government could have stayed afloat. The demands included the following: to support the bill on Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, to stop criticism of the government leadership, to shelve the bill on zero value-added tax for young families buying their first flat, to transfer 6bn shekels to the Defence Ministry and to earmark funds for relocating bases of the Israel Defence Forces to Negev. Lapid refused to meet these demands after which Netanyahu decided to break off with the centrists. 

Meanwhile it is obvious that the main issue that divided the opinions of Likud and its centrist opponents - the status of Israel as "the nation-state of the Jewish people" - is a matter of great importance and not only in the context of Israeli infighting. It directly affects the process of Palestinian-Israeli conflict settlement.

The Benjamin Netanyahu government has approved, by a vote of 15 to seven (that is in defiance of the opinion of Lapid and other ministers), the bill defining the status of Israel as the "nation-state of the Jewish people" and is capable in the future to become the basis for an Israeli constitution (the country has lived with no fundamental law up to now). The document comprises four key points: The Land of Israel is the birthplace of the State of Israel and the homeland of the Jewish people; Israel is the national home of the Jewish people in which it fulfils its right to self-determination; the right to self-determination within the State of Israel is unique to the Jewish people; Israel is a democratic state realizing the individual rights of all its citizens under law.

The leader of the Yesh Atid party sees populist considerations behind the head of government supporting this decision. Judging by Lapid's statements, Netanyahu came up with the law on the Jewish character of Israel mainly to strengthen his positions within the ruling party Likud. Opponents to the bill believe its approval will strike a blow at Israel's positions in the negotiating process with the Palestinians.

The problem is that, apart from Jews, citizens of Israel also include Arabs, Bedouins and Druses living on the territory of the state. They have all the rights and freedoms of Israeli citizens. However in this context of the approval of the new bill, the menace arises that the rights of other nationalities may be infringed on because this document actually consolidates the Jews' priority status compared with the Palestinians who are citizens of Israel. It is no wonder that the bill has evoked protests from the Israeli Arabs accounting for 20 per cent of the eight million population of Israel. According to Ahmad Tibi, an ethnic Arab member of the Knesset, "the Israeli authorities have proved that Israeli democracy is a fiction". 

In a broader sense, the draft law may further exacerbate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Palestinian national administration head Mahmud Abbas has already made a statement that the new bill will not promote the implementation of the peace process based on the idea of establishing two states for the two peoples.

Meanwhile the raising of the issue of the Jewish character of Israel also threatens Tel-Aviv with problems at the international level. The subject of recognition of the Palestinian state by the European Union and individual European states has been widely mooted. Sweden has already recognized Palestine as an independent state. Resolutions on recognition of Palestine's sovereignty have been adopted by the parliaments of the UK, Ireland, Spain and France. By all appearances, the decision of the National Assembly of France came just as a response to the Israeli government's striving to declare Israel a Jewish state. More than that, Paris intends to present a draft resolution to the UN Security Council envisaging a deadline for reaching an accord on the Middle East problem. They suggest November 2016, a deadline on which, by the way, the Palestinians insist as well.

Other countries also express their stance on the issue of recognizing Palestine as an independent state. The EU traditionally censuring Israel for its occupation of the Palestinian lands believes that recognition of Palestine will urge Israel to take more active efforts to reach a compromise with Ramallah. However, recognition of Palestine is not the only method of pressure on Israel from the European Union. Brussels has even drawn up a list of likely sanctions against Israel. Its content has become known to The Daily Telegraph in London and Haaretz in Tel-Aviv. Given the free trade agreement between the EU and Israel, as well as their bilateral association agreement, no embargo on supplies of goods from Israel is at issue. However the list envisages the introduction of compulsory special markings on commodities produced by Israelis in settlements in the occupied territories, constraints on cooperation in many areas and even the possibility of suspending the free trade agreement.

Meanwhile the government of Israel has its own arsenal of arguments. Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced in particular the following: "I do not understand those calling to implement the 'two states for two peoples' principle but speaking against this law. If we recognize a Palestinian national state, we must also recognize a Jewish one". The Israeli prime minister maintains that the law on the Jewish character of Israel will become an answer to those who "deny the character of Israel as the homeland of the Jews".

Anyway, the dispute over the status of Israel will have an impact on further course of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict settlement. For the present, taking into account the government crisis, the Knesset has postponed indefinitely the consideration of this issue. Until March 2015, Israel's political forces have the opportunity to influence the approval of one decision or another. In any event, its cost will be extraordinarily significant for the fates of both Israel itself and Palestine.