DONBASS ABLAZE

The extension of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, which is claiming the lives of innocent civilians, leaves virtually no chance of a peaceful solution to the armed conflict that has now lasted almost a year. Innocent people are being killed. The death of 12 people following the shelling of a bus near Volnovakha in the south-west of Donetsk Region has become a depressing symbol of the current situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian security forces and the Donbass separatists accuse each other of the tragedies, just as they claim the other side is responsible for the violation of the Minsk agreements and the cease-fire and the development of the latest phase of the fighting.

The battle for Donetsk, which is now developing before the eyes of the whole world, could be the turning point in the war. Judging by the latest reports, the key objective - Donetsk airport, now completely destroyed - has passed over to the control of the separatists. The self-proclaimed "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk make no secret of their intentions to extend the so-called "security zone" and these plans, if they are carried through, will mean that the Ukrainian crisis has entered the stage of a total, not local war. The latter, in turn, will directly lead to an even greater hardening of the stand-off between Russia and the West, with unpredictable consequences for the destinies of the whole post-Soviet space. And possibly the only platform on which the prospect of a long-term settlement to the Ukrainian crisis and the chance of stabilizing a dialogue between Moscow and the Euro-Atlantic centres can re-emerge is the so-called "Normandy format". It was begun at the meeting of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany in June 2014 during the celebrations to mark the 70th anniversary of the allied landings in Normandy.

The bloody events in Donetsk Region are developing against the background of four-party negotiations. In the past few days there have been two meetings of the foreign ministers of the aforementioned countries in Berlin. The first was supposed to have preceded the Astana summit on Ukraine, which had been tentatively planned for 15 January. However, the substantial differences between the participants in the talks meant it was impracticable to hold the summit in the Kazakh capital, so it was postponed indefinitely. And, indeed, how can there be any question of talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin, his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French leader Francois Hollande if all the sides want to do is exchange mutual reproaches, which have turned up the heat of the armed conflict in the Donbass even more? None of the parties in the conflict, which is being drawn ever closer to the brink of an irreversible geo-political confrontation between the West and Russia, is taking any real steps on the path to peace.

In this great game between the great centres of the world the interests of the Ukrainian people are, unfortunately, so much small change. Russia insists that Kiev must enter into direct talks with the rebellious Donetsk and Luhansk. However, the Ukrainians, and also the western power supporting them, including France and Germany who are part of the "Normandy format", claim that the separatism in south-east Ukraine is exclusively the result of Moscow's support, and that is why they are demanding that it abandons any interference in Ukraine's internal affairs.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has again accused the Russian military of escalating the conflict in Donbass. At the same time, he specified that there are over 9,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. On the strength of this, the authenticity of which is denied by official Moscow, the Ukrainian leader is demanding the immediate closure of the Russian-Ukrainian border and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. In Poroshenko's opinion, a political dialogue between the conflicting sides within Ukraine must be the "next step". Because, the Ukrainian president said, "there is only one political path in a democratic country to achieve a stabilization of the situation, and that is legal, free and honest local elections based on Ukrainian legislation".

Kiev's basic position rules out the possibility of the federalization of the country which Moscow wants. However, the main stumbling block lies not just in the question of Ukraine's state and territorial-administrative system. According to Poroshenko, apart from the fact that "Ukraine will not be federative but will remain a unitary state" and that "Ukrainian is and will be the only state language", there also exists another "fundamental thing", which cannot be the subject of compromise. And that is that "our European choice is not subject to discussion". And clearly it is precisely this choice, which runs strategically counter to Russia's interests, that impels it towards crushing the idea of Ukraine's federalization. But the actual idea, according to Russia's interpretation, which provides for granting the eastern regions the right to veto Kiev's landmark decisions (especially in matters of foreign policy), cannot possibly be adopted by the Ukrainian authorities because it conflicts totally with Petro Poroshenko's "European choice".

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president's promise to "restore Ukraine's heritage in Donbass" confirms Ukraine's intention to return Donetsk and Luhansk to the bosom of Ukrainian sovereignty as quickly as possible. According to the plans of the Ukrainian authorities, the international recognition of the self-proclaimed "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk ("DPR" and "LPR") as "terrorist organizations", which they have instigated, should also serve this purpose. Such a move could, first of all, set in stone the illegal and criminal nature of the "DPR" and the "LPR" from the point of view of international law, and, second, make the legal, political and economic consequences of its support for the Donbass separatists even more painful for Russia.

The Ukrainian parliament has urged the European Union, in particular, to recognize the "DPR" and the "LPR" as terrorist organizations. Earlier, the European Parliament expressed its solidarity with the Ukrainian people and condemned the "acts of terrorism committed by the separatists in the east of the country". However, the prospect of Brussels' recognizing the pro-Russian separatists of Donbass as terrorists will in many ways depend on Washington's position. And judging by a statement by the US State Department's press secretary, Marie Harf, the American government has officially refused to recognize the self-proclaimed "people's republics" as terrorist organizations. According to Ms Harf, they are merely "very dangerous armed separatists". The State Department spokesperson also pointed out that Washington is not seeking a confrontation with Russia, but is urging both Russia and the separatists to fulfil the Minsk agreements - to observe the cease-fire, release hostages and avoid violence.

One forms the impression that the West is not going to risk taking actions that might radicalize Moscow's positions even more over the Ukraine question. This, indeed, seems irrational if you consider the fact that the Kremlin is more and more often sending out signals pointing to its reluctance to resolve the situation in Donbass in the same way as in Crimea. One such signal clearly emerged in Russian President Vladimir Putin's message to his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, which stresses that "a resumption of the fighting in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk Regions places the process of a peaceful settlement based on the Minsk agreements in jeopardy". Thus, the territories of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR" are recognized by Putin as the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions of Ukraine. 

Putin also urged Poroshenko to immediately take joint measures for the cessation of mutual shelling. In other words, Russia is making it a condition of the stabilization of the situation that Kiev renounces any military actions in eastern Ukraine. In the matter of compliance with the cease-fire regime, which is provided for by the Minsk agreements, there have also been statements by the foreign ministers of the "Normandy four". They have called for the urgent withdrawal of heavy artillery from the line of contact in eastern Ukraine. It is true, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, "recommendations on this issue will be formulated later". And only "if there is progress in halting the fighting, in a cease-fire and the shelling of civilian regions, which is causing the deaths of innocent civilians, especially in Donetsk and other cities in this region, and if there is progress in the withdrawal of heavy weapons, then the summit in Astana will be fully sought after". Furthermore, the "Normandy four" have agreed to arrange as swiftly as possible a meeting of the contact group on a settlement of the situation in Ukraine, whose task includes "achieving progress and making possible the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, including the creation of substantial conditions for an effective cease-fire".

The next few days will show how realistic are the expectations expressed by the foreign ministers of the countries and whether all the interested states are prepared to take specific steps to achieve a compromise in the situation in Ukraine. But, for the time being, everything points to the fact that a real breakthrough in a settlement of the Ukrainian crisis will happen only when Russia and the West actually deign to agree on this question.