DISAPPOINTMENT ON TWO FRONTS

The Armenian-Turkish dialogue remains one of the most discussed subjects in the region. The 100th anniversary of the so-called "genocide of Armenians" in the Ottoman Empire, which took place back in 1915, makes it even more relevant. The subject was not disregarded by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in his New Year address: "We are entering the year 2015. The year, of course, is symbolic. We are going to properly organize the events dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the 'Armenian genocide' (hereinafter the quotation marks are ours - editorial note). Together we will do it with dignity. We will mark the victory of life over death, emphasizing the heroic and glorious path of our people. We will emphasize our people's will and efforts to survive, revive and to be liberated."

By all appearances, Armenia expects a breakthrough in the Armenian-Turkish dialogue and opening of the border with Turkey, and it has no doubt that, thanks to "international attention", the breakthrough will be achieved on the basis of Armenia's terms and scenario. This means without settling the conflict in Nagornyy Karabakh, without a pullout of Armenian troops from the occupied Azerbaijani lands, without jointly exploring disputable historical issues and, in all likelihood, even without recognizing the Treaty of Kars.   

Meanwhile Etyen Mahcupyan, an ethnic Armenian advisor to the Turkish prime minister, made it quite clear back last December that there is a limit for Turkey beyond which no compromise is possible and Armenia must also cover its part of the way to peace. According to him, the borders between Turkey and Armenia may only be opened in case a package settlement is reached and this applies to the issue of normalizing both the Turkish-Armenian and the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. "24 April 2015 is a very symbolic date and its approach exacerbates radicalism over this issue amid Armenians. They approach it from very uncompromising positions," RIA Novosti quoted him as saying. Mahcupyan said he does not believe that Turkey will take any steps to meet the Armenian side's demands. "With such an approach by the Armenian side, any concessions by Turkey on the issue of 'genocide' and opening the border are impossible," Mahcupyan said. According to him, steps, if any, will only be taken by Turkey one year from now "because passions will subside only then". Finally, Ankara cannot but take into account the importance for Turkey of economic relations with Azerbaijan as well. At the same time, Armenia's present political elite is also unable to drastically lower the level of demands to Turkey. Experts advise keeping in mind the political storm amidst the Armenian diaspora in the wake of the Zurich talks and signing the Zurich protocols.

Meanwhile, there is another circumstance of no less importance. Since 2 January, Armenia has become a member of a new integration association - the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This circumstance has given rise to an absolutely different situation in the case of the hopelessly dead Armenian-Turkish dialogue.

Very different opinions are being voiced in and outside the South Caucasus about Armenia's gains and losses resulting from its entry to the EAEU.  On the one hand, just its nullified customs duties on oil, gas and diamonds alone will bring 1bn dollars to the Armenian budget annually. But on the other hand, this is obviously insufficient to resuscitate the Armenian economy. As regards getting more generous infusions from Russia, they are highly unlikely under the sanctions and the falling exchange rate of the rouble, as well as oil prices. More than that, Armenia whose economy largely depends on private transfers from Russia, the drop of the rouble has crashed the rate of its national currency - the dram. Finally, even against the backdrop of an entirely well-to-do Russian economy, one should rather not overestimate the chances of Armenia, which has no common border with any of the EAEU member states, to enjoy all the fruits of the Eurasian integration. 

It is no secret that accession to the EAEU was taken primarily as a political gesture by a considerable part of Armenia's political establishment and with quite a transparent expectation of return gifts from Russia, including and possibly in the first place in matters such as relations with Turkey.

In this context, the fact should be taken into account that Armenia, whose coat of arms depicts [Mount] Agri Dagi (Ararat in Armenian) located in Turkey, has never given up its territorial claims to Ankara. They view the recognition of the "Armenian genocide" there as just the "first point on the programme" to be followed by raising the issue of "overcoming its consequences". This implies giving no less than six Turkish vilayets [provinces] over to Armenia. 

In this context, one more circumstance takes on quite a different complexion. Agreements with Turkey which laid down the configuration of today's borders of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan with that country were signed by Russia in 1920-21. Today, Armenia expects at least an open denunciation of those agreements.

For quite clear reasons, Russia will not take that step. It has no reasons to get involved in confrontation with Turkey and risk its economic ties with Ankara.

Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Ankara has left no doubt about this. Against the backdrop of mutual sanctions between Russia and the West, Turkey is expanding food supplies to the Russian Federation, the Blue Stream runs across its territory and so may possibly do the alternative route of the South Stream. In any event, Russian President Vladimir Putin reckons that, basing on his recent accords with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, both states will more actively carry out their large-scale joint projects in various domains. The Kremlin's press service has announced that the head of state voiced this hope in his New Year greeting letter to the Turkish leader.

This means that Armenia will very soon start voicing its complaints to Moscow about Russia not scaling down its relations with Turkey for the sake of its "outpost".

The most important thing is that the "disappointment on two fronts" will strike a blow on Serzh Sargsyan's positions. Thus, for instance, Vladimir Karapetyan, the chairman of the foreign relations commission at the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC), is already accusing the Armenian president of having methodically and consistently led Armenian-Turkish relations into a deadlock. According to him, despite the fact that "Sargsyan's adventurism became state propaganda in 2009" and those involved in it advocated historians who make no credit to the Armenian-Turkish commission, Armenia has gained nothing. In the oppositionist's view, it is Turkey and Azerbaijan that gained, as well as countries which benefit from closed borders. "This deadlock is Serzh Sargsyan's gift to our opponents and those who extolled this initiative in 2009-11 should and will be held responsible for its intended failure. Instead of taking clear-cut steps easy to understand for society to settle Armenian-Turkish relations, a dead-end programme was chosen which involved the entire state system in pursuit of a wrong policy," the ANC representative said.

At the same time, the EAEU accession is also believed in Armenia to be the president's project. So, against this background, the year of the "genocide centenary" may possibly be marked with serious domestic political turmoil in Armenia.