GREAT PEACE

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, who mediate the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, James Warlick (USA), Pierre Andrieu (France) and Igor Popov (Russia), and the personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Andrzej Kasprzyk, visited the region of the conflict last week. In anticipation of this visit, they held consultations with the foreign ministers of the conflicting parties (with Mammadyarov in Cracow and with Nalbandyan in Berlin), and then in Helsinki with Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja and Secretary of State Peter Steenland. As you know, Finland is a member of the Minsk Group, and in the early stages of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, it even presided over it. This country has a positive experience in the Aland autonomy that may be of interest and be an example for the South Caucasus region.

In Baku, the mediators held talks at the Foreign Ministry, and then they met with President Ilham Aliyev. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov once again informed the OSCE Minsk Group about the need to start work on a major peace agreement as soon as possible, which is also supported by the presidents of the co-chairing countries. "We have already voiced the position of Azerbaijan. We have repeatedly stated that the mediators need to work on a peace treaty on the basis of six articles of the Madrid principles. In order for peace to come to the region, it is necessary to conduct serious negotiations. First of all, refugees and internally displaced persons must return to their lands. And most importantly, the military should go home," he said. The minister also drew attention to the plight of two Azerbaijanis captured by Armenians in Kalbacar, saying that they should be handed over to Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately, the Armenian side, as usual, is taking the opposite position, which does not indicate a desire to move forward the negotiating process that has stalled in recent years. For example, Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandyan, commenting on the calls to move on to comprehensive negotiations for a major peace agreement, absurdly said that in this way Baku is allegedly trying to ruin the results of the agreement on the basic principles of the conflict resolution. "If there is agreement on the basic principles and Nagornyy Karabakh agrees with them, it will be possible to start negotiations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Karabakh to develop a framework agreement," he said. He groundlessly called our compatriots captured in Kalbacar, Sahbaz Quliyev and Dilqam Asgarov, saboteurs and criminals and on this basis, evaded the conditions of the Astrakhan Declaration (adopted by the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in October 2010) that obliges the parties to resolve such problems in the humanitarian plane.

At the end of his visit, the mediators arrived in Nagornyy Karabakh. The visit yielded nothing new in a meaningful sense, and the most notable thing was the exclusive interview that US co-chair James Warlick gave local "artsakhpress". Apparently, considering his reckless "tweets", for which he has been repeatedly criticized by Azerbaijan, the US diplomat decided to demonstrate openness to the public in this way, although earlier the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs refused to communicate with the separatist media. It must be noted that Warlick had the discretion not to give in to provocative questions from "artsakhpress" and did not say anything special in his answers. Warlick's interview with Armenia's Mediamax news agency turned out to be more informative. The diplomat noted the possibility of holding a high-level meeting in the near future: "We want to see real negotiations and we want the process to intensify. The president of Azerbaijan is ready for such a meeting. But we do not need meetings for the sake of meetings. We have to prepare for it. The work of the mediators is precisely this - to prepare the range of issues that the presidents will discuss. It is noteworthy that the parties, in fact, are very close. Both accept that the basis for the settlement of the conflict should be three principles and six elements. Of course, there are details about which we continue to work, but that's what we want to achieve. So in reality there is no contradiction."

According to Warlick, to achieve a lasting peace there must be trust between the people of the two countries: "We welcome the opportunity of communication and meetings between Armenians and Azeris." The question is whether in this case the mediators are ready to facilitate dialogue between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagornyy Karabakh, to which the separatist leadership is creating all kinds of obstacles.

In fact, the visit of the OSCE Minsk Group to the region has boiled down to yet another attempt to revive the dialogue between the presidents of the conflicting parties. It is obvious that at their own level they cannot to give momentum to the negotiation process. In this regard, Azerbaijan is rightly voicing criticism of the mediators and makes proposals to expand or change their composition. For example, at the winter session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE (18-20 February in Vienna) MP Azay Quliyev raised the issue of increasing the number of OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs from three to five by bringing in representatives of Turkey and Germany.

As a man who led the Azerbaijani delegation at the meeting of the Committee of Senior Officials of the CSCE in Prague in February 1991, when the Minsk Group was created, and subsequently continuously monitored the mediation efforts of the MG, I am not sure about the productivity of this proposal. Firstly, instead of moving on to substantial negotiations on the text of the Greater Peace Treaty, which can only be the beginning of a real solution to the conflict, the parties will be drawn into fruitless procedural disputes. Secondly, there is no strong argument in favour of the fact that increasing the number of mediators to five will enhance their effectiveness. I am afraid that in this expanded format, we will have to appoint a special moderator to overcome the differences among the mediating powers themselves, not to mention the fact that the candidacies of Germany and Turkey will cause a categorical protest from Armenia. And how much will Azerbaijan gain if, in order to discuss the candidacy of Turkey as a mediator, they will have to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia and open the border with it even before the beginning of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict?

Turkey and Germany are able to positively influence the peace process as members of the Minsk Group. They can initiate the convening of the Minsk Conference (for the preparation of which the Minsk Group was actually created at the time) in order to brainstorm not only the current situation, but also formulate the basic principles of the settlement, on which the conflicting parties themselves cannot agree. As a regional power, Ankara can influence the efforts of the mediators through a bilateral dialogue with Moscow, Paris and Washington. At the same time, Germany, as an influential member of the European Union, has the ability to attract the financial, economic and political resources of this powerful European organization to encourage the settlement. In addition, in 2016 Germany will hold the presidency of the OSCE and may officially carry out mediation efforts in parallel with the Minsk Group. In short, to promote the Karabakh settlement process, there is a need for practical efforts by the powers that can accelerate it rather than reshuffles in the mediating structures.

The co-chair of the Minsk Group from France, Pierre Andrieu, noted on the eve of his visit to the region that many meetings within the OSCE, as well as with representatives of the European Union are scheduled for 2015 to discuss ways to resolve the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Among them are meetings in Belgrade, as Serbia holds the presidency of the OSCE this year, as well as Minsk, where the mediation group on Nagornyy Karabakh was created in 1992. In Vienna, the co-chairs will inform colleagues from the Minsk Group about the negotiation process. There is also a dialogue with the EU, which, according to Pierre Andrieu, is interested in the improvement of its role in this matter. "Germany will hold the presidency of the OSCE in

2016, and Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that Germany wants to be more active in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. The European Union as a whole is also seeking to play a more important role," Pierre Andrieu said.

On the eve of the visit of the OSCE Minsk Group, President Serzh Sargsyan recalled the "Swiss Protocols" that provide for the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations from the parliament. This was done immediately after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said at a meeting with representatives of the country's national minorities that if Armenia withdraws from at least one of the occupied Azerbaijani territories, Ankara could authorize the opening of borders with Armenia. With the withdrawal of these protocols Armenia and its foreign backers essentially admitted the failure of cunning plans to separate Turkey from Azerbaijan in order to prompt Baku to make territorial concessions as a result and accept peace on Armenian conditions.

Whether Armenia and its diaspora abroad like it or not, Turkey, as an influential regional power, cannot be excluded from the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict settlement process - just like Iran, although it is in international isolation and as a country that is not part of the OSCE, is not involved in the mediation efforts undertaken by the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group on behalf of the organization. But Iran borders on the Karabakh conflict zone, and the lack of progress in the settlement and the possible resumption of hostilities directly affect the interests of this major regional power too.

It is necessary to secure the release of Azerbaijani hostages and stop the Armenian side from provocative military exercises in the occupied Azerbaijani territories. This will not only create a positive background for the meeting of the presidents, but also contribute to the strengthening of the ceasefire on the contact line. Whatever it is, the meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will make sense only if it leads to negotiations on a comprehensive settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, which involves work on the text of the Greater Peace Treaty.