FAMILIAR NAMES

Given the strength of Washington in the international arena and the high extent of the universalization of American values, it is not surprising that presidential elections in the United States cause a great interest worldwide long before they start, especially as Americans make complete use of their famous ability in this process - to create a show out of everything. The election campaign in America is expensive, impressive, dynamic and often accompanied by sensations and battles of compromising dossiers. Judging by many sins, the next election of the US president will be a really fascinating spectacle. So far, the struggle within parties is only beginning in order to eventually determine one leader from the Republicans and one from the Democrats, who will compete for the grand prize on 8 November 2016. So who will be the 45th president of the United States?

First woman

It is usually the ruling party in the White House that declares possible candidates, so this time the Democrats will have to speak out first. For the time being, the most serious candidate from the Democratic Party is Hillary Clinton, who is going to announce her intention to participate in the elections next month. Clinton is now ahead of all her fellow party members, including 71-year-old Vice-President Joseph Biden, who has participated in presidential races twice and has not yet officially announced his plans for a third time. Another possible Democratic candidate, a senator from Massachusetts and law professor, Elizabeth Warren, is also still lagging behind Clinton both in popularity and activity. Clinton herself said earlier that he was not going to join the fight for the presidency anymore, but would very much like to see a woman in the White House chair. However, after thinking it over, she decided that she is the one who has to become that first woman.

According to Gallup, 54 per cent of Americans positively assess Clinton. In addition, she is currently one of the most recognizable American politicians for the international audience, because she was first lady during the two presidential terms of her husband Bill Clinton and worked as secretary of state in the Obama administration for four years. Obama thanked Hillary for recognizing his victory, dropping out of the race during the primaries in 2009 and supporting him. The 68-year-old Clinton also has such titles as a doctor of law, senator from New York and first lady of Arkansas.

Last year the autobiography of the politician entitled "Hard Choices" was published, and many believe that it is with an eye on 2016. At least Clinton behaves very confidently, apparently, clearly seeing herself, a former first lady, as president. In this case, Bill Clinton will get the chance to become the first ever "first gentleman" in US history. In fact, Hillary began her campaign a long time ago, actively speaking in different cities and states. Well, she has enough experience at least because, as they say, Hillary actively helped Bill in the 1993 elections and then did not sit idle, distinguished herself in public service, parried the blow as a betrayed wife during the memorable Monica Lewinsky scandal, and as it turned out, thought about further career ambitions.

Obama speaks positively about Clinton, noting that she will be "an excellent president", and it is even reported that employees from the administration of the current president are working in her campaign headquarters. However, it is doubtful how it can be considered a success to hear praise from the president, who clearly completes his term as a "lame duck". In any case, now Clinton will not miss the chance to criticize her former boss, saying, for example, that, in her view, the United States is experiencing "a period of political dysfunction".

It is believed that Clinton is able to attract the votes of women and youth, whom she promised to create "more favourable conditions for professional growth", members of the LGBT community and the coloured population. The downside for Clinton may be her connections with Wall Street and rumours about health problems.

Brother of the "loser"

The main candidate from the Republicans could well be the former governor of Florida, 62-year-old Jeb Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush (2000-2010) and son of George Bush Sr (1990-1994). If Jeb wins, the Bushes will be the first family three members of which served as president of the United States.

According to various sources, Jeb is 5-12 per cent behind Hillary. If behind Clinton are looming the low ratings of her former boss Barack Obama, whose second term is called one of the biggest failures in US history, Jeb has his own drama - the low rating at the end of the term of George W. Bush, who is also considered the most unsuccessful president in American politics. However, apparently, Jeb does not consider it a disadvantage. The Bushes have always worked to win as a whole family. For example, Jeb and George once actively helped their father George Bush Sr. In this process, George decided to become president too. During the 2000 elections, George was said to have been supported by Jeb, who was governor of Florida, a state that was decisive for voting. Now Jeb's son George P. Bush is running for election in Texas, and in terms of PR, he comments on the presidential plans of his father very successfully.

Among the disadvantages of Jeb, according to some observers, may be that he is considered not too conservative, for example, due to his moderate views on the issue of immigration and intention to increase some taxes. But Jeb needs the votes of Hispanics - the fastest growing ethnic minority in the United States. In general, it is noted that in recent years the Republican Party has tilted markedly towards the centre. Representatives of the Elephant are increasingly talking about the need to find compromises, which, of course, could threaten with the loss of far-right voters.

Billionaire Donald Trump is also considering running for election from the Republican Party. He is trying to convince the Americans that he is taking this step not for fun, pleasure or benefit to the brand, but because he wants to save the country, which is in "serious trouble". Trump believes that he is the only person who can bring erstwhile glory back to the US. However, observers believe that Trump does not have much of a chance, because his political ambitions are marred by his activity as a businessman and media person. Trump is a kind of American Mikhail Prokhorov, but with some manners of Zhirinovskiy.

Another possible candidate from the Republicans - the governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, does not have much of a chance either. His reputation is tarnished by a scandal related to "traffic jams" when several lanes of a bridge leading to New York were closed for a few days. The governor is also suspected of misuse of funds intended for the victims and restoration of the state after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Apart from the abovementioned, several more senators are thinking of the chair in the White House: Ted Cruz of Texas, Bob Corker of Tennessee, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Marco Rubio of Florida and Rand Paul of Kentucky, who is known for his fierce criticism of Obama and is a proponent of limiting the role of the state.

Good time for the "hawks"

In any case, the programmes of all candidates will probably be built on the desire to take into account the interests of ordinary Americans, which includes the eternal questions: the social sphere, taxation, income distribution, the minimum level of wages and salaries, labour law and the new health insurance system popularly known as Obamacare.

It is noteworthy that the Republicans, who control both houses of Congress for the first time since 2006, as shown by polls, gained 30 per cent more votes from white representatives of the working class than the Democrats. According to surveys, about half of Asian Americans sympathize with the Elephant. But the Democrats are still backed by Afro-Americans. Another important factor is who American Jews will vote for. And it is very interesting because of the desire of the current administration of Democratic president to make a deal with Iran at all costs despite the tough confrontation with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

All this leads to the role that the foreign policy agenda will play in the presidential race. Early in his presidency, Barack Obama said that if the United States under George W. Bush "did not take into account the interests of others", now America is ready to "bargain" with other countries on the most important international issues. Two presidential terms seem to have turned Obama into a different person and politician. Inevitably, the current president will leave a whole heap of problems to his successor - from ISIS to relations with Russia. In general, the international agenda is such that it gives more chances for the nomination of "hawks". For the time being, Clinton seems to be harsher in this sense, but Bush, just like all other possible candidates, has time to catch up. After all, there is still quite a long time to the election, and therefore, there may be any surprises both planned and not.