A "VOLUNTARY" DEPARTURE?

The latest news of political infighting, which could be described as both expected and sensational with equal justification, is being debated in Armenia. An extraordinary session of the "Prosperous Armenia" party, at which the party's leader and founder Gagik Tsarukyan announced his resignation from the post of party chairman and head of the parliamentary faction, and politics in general, has ended in Yerevan. Addressing those who are now his former fellow party members, Tsarukyan said: "I have come today to announce my decision to leave politics. This decision was made after long consideration. It is my own personal decision and I hope you will understand it. Please do not ask me any political questions and I, for my part, promise not to interfere in any decisions you take. I no longer have anything to do with the PPA."

The vacant post of party chairman has been filled by Naira Zograbyan, whose candidature, taking into account "her popularity and devotion to the team", was proposed by Tsarukyan himself. Before leaving he also managed to promise: "I shall continue to build churches, schools and sports centres in my country and help people in culture and science. But I shall do so as an Armenian, as a citizen of Armenia, as Tsarukyan." In other words, without any political motivation.

Quite frankly, this astounding political turn made by Gagik Tsarukyan provides one with a fairly complete picture of the rules on which political life in Armenia is built. In it the main driving force is not electoral rivalry and elections, but the behind-the-scenes intrigues and collusion that consolidate someone's victory or capitulation. One can only imagine what talking points all this could set off. In the case with Tsarukyan there is hardly any room for doubt. First he tried to turn his PPA into a real opposition. There followed the abduction and beating up of one of his activists and then there was another strident call from Gagik Tsarukyan to "take to the streets"…After that the state machine "clamped down" on the oligarch at the head of the party in a big way. Tsarukyan was systematically removed from all posts, the State Protection Service turned its back on all his "projects", on the Armenian president's instructions the tax authorities began checking out his business empire and the prospect of being deprived of his deputy's seat - and, consequently, his immunity - loomed large… And it was against this background that Tsarukyan had a meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. After which Tsarukyan backtracked on the idea of an "Armenian Maidan" and then announced his unconditional and complete farewell to politics. And although the details of his talks with the Armenian president remained, as it were, behind closed doors, it is not difficult to guess that this conversation was a long way away from European standards of political negotiations and rather reminded one of "an offer that couldn't be refused". Faced with a real threat of losing his business, his estate and possibly something rather more serious (the crisis, we recall, began with the abduction and beating up of a PPA activist), Tsarukyan preferred to back down.

However, many experts are warning that there is a strong possibility that the history of political "shake-ups" in the PPA will not end with this reshuffle, but is merely beginning, because the PPA under Gagik Tsarukyan's leadership was a kind of "centrist" party, much closer to the authorities than the radical, if you like, real opposition, which at times even was part of the ruling coalition. Now Naira Zograbyan stands at its helm. She has already delivered her policy statement: "I today declare Prosperous Armenia the opposition and I shall do the same in parliament in accordance with the law. We can expect a period of most earnest debate and analysis to work out a precise and clear tactic of opposition. I am ready to work and I am a supporter of teamwork. And if at any time I find that my work is not bringing results I shall relinquish my powers as party leader with dignity."

A bold statement, that's for sure. But whether Naira Zograbyan will succeed in turning the PPA into an influential opposition party is an open question. Nor should one forget the fact that the PPA under Gagik Tsarukyan did not have to worry about the funding of its activities. Indeed, the annual turnover of Tsarukyan's "Multi Group" concern, according to Forbes magazine, is close on 150m dollars. And the oligarch's personal estate is estimated at 500m dollars. Moreover, even the PPA's office was situated on the site of a brandy distillery belonging to Tsarukyan. Whether his former party colleagues will still have access to these premises is not clear.

On top of everything, it is also not clear how Zograbyan's party colleagues will react to this switch to the opposition.

Since the PPA was formed and has existed as a "centrist pro-government" party, not everyone here will support the switch to the opposition. The process of departure from the party which could be described as "rats leaving a sinking ship" began in the PPA at a time when the media was circulating the opposition calls of Tsarukyan himself. And here is some food for thought: on the day when leadership changed at the PPA, the former Armenian Foreign Minister and head of the Sivilitas Foundation, Vardan Oskanyan, announced he was leaving the party. As he himself said, his departure is linked with the fact that the party has been unable to carry out radical changes in the country which, in Oskanyan's opinion, the majority of society wants. He bore some of the responsibility for his party's failure. However, experts do not doubt that Oskanyan presented nothing more than the official version to the public. One may, of course, surmise that the former foreign minister himself was not averse to taking the party leader's place, especially as he defined his own political ambitions back in 2008. Besides, if most people perceived Gagik Tsarukyan at best as a sponsor and a kind of lightning rod, then Zograbyan had much greater ambitions. Nor should one forget that in Gagik Tsarukyan's time there existed in the ranks of the PPA an impressive "old hands" alliance, where the main role was played not by Vardan Oskanyan, but Armenia's second president, Robert Kocharyan. He, too, will doubtless be drawing his own conclusions from the change of power at the PPA. 

Robert Kocharyan is clearly a pro-Russian politician. The PPA, too, was more of a pro-Russian than pro-western party. Just before making his political curve Tsarukyan was on his way to Moscow, clearly trying to muster support from influential figures. The Yerevan political elite once very heatedly discussed his friendship with Modest Kolerov, at that time an advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of the Regnum news agency. The Russian factor is the most important one in Armenian political life. This country is heavily dependent on Russia, and since it joined the Eurasian Union this dependence has been even greater. At the same time, "Eurasian integration" has not brought, and bearing in mind Armenia's "constricted" position and its lack of borders and land communications with other countries who are members of the EAEC, could not bring a swift solution to social and economic problems, which has very clearly defined the political direction of Armenian political life. On the one hand, in the "corridors and offices of power" groups are already being formed that are prepared to challenge Serzh Sargsyan's rapidly diminishing popularity and bring their own candidates to power - with Moscow's aid and support. Hovik Abrahamyan and Seyran Oganyan are being named among these "secret rivals". On the other hand, the parliamentary and "street" opposition is openly playing on the increasing "Eurasian disillusionment" in Armenia. In these circumstances Zograbyan is destined to play the role of a "street pro-western" opposition politician, but such a turn will hardly be to the taste of Robert Kocharyan, whose main trump card is his strong standing in Moscow.

And that means the behind-the-scenes games in Armenia's political infighting will only increase.